August WTI crude oil (CLQ24) today is down -0.79 (-0.96%), and Aug RBOB gasoline (RBQ24) is down -1.72 (-0.69%).
Crude oil and gasoline prices today are moderately lower, with crude sliding to a 3-week low and gasoline falling to a 4-week low. A stronger dollar today is weighing on energy prices. Also, increasing Russian crude exports are negative for prices. In addition, improved prospects for Donald Trump to win the US presidential election in November weighed on oil prices due to the expectation that Trump would pursue pro-US drilling policies if elected.
Today's global economic news was mixed for energy demand and crude prices. On the bearish side, the US July NAHB housing market index unexpectedly fell -1 to a 7-month low of 42, weaker than expectations of no change at 43. Also, the German July ZEW survey expectations of economic growth fell -5.7 to a 4-month low of 41.8. On the positive side, US June retail sales were unchanged m/m, stronger than expectations of a -0.3% m/m decline.
In a bearish factor, Russia's crude exports in the week to July 14 rose by +200,000 bpd to 2.97 million bpd, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.
Weakness in the crude crack spread is bearish for crude prices as the crack spread today fell to a 1-month low, discouraging refiners from purchasing crude and refining it into gasoline and distillates.
Crude oil prices have underlying support from the Hamas-Israel conflict. Israel's military continues to conduct operations in Gaza, and there is the continued risk that the war might spread to Hezbollah in Lebanon or even to a direct conflict with Iran. Meanwhile, ongoing attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthi rebels have forced shippers to divert shipments around the southern tip of Africa instead of going through the Red Sea, disrupting global crude oil supplies.
Higher than expected Russian crude output is bearish for oil prices. Russian crude production averaged 9.078 million bpd in June, above its agreed target of 9.049 million bpd.
A decline in crude oil in floating storage is bullish for prices. Monday's weekly data from Vortexa showed that the amount of crude oil held worldwide on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week fell -20% w/w to 74.53 million bbl as of July 12.
OPEC+ rolled out a plan to restore some crude production in Q4, which sparked worries about a glut in global oil supplies. On June 2, OPEC+ extended the 2 million bpd of voluntary crude production cuts into Q3 but said they would gradually phase out the cuts over the following 12 months, beginning in October. OPEC pledged to extend its crude production cap at about 39 million bpd to the end of 2025. Also, the UAE was given a 300,000 bpd boost to its production target for 2025.
A decrease in OPEC crude output is positive for oil prices. OPEC's June crude production fell -80,000 bpd to 26.98 million bpd.
Last Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of July 5 were -4.4% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -1.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -8.2% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending July 5 rose +0.8% w/w and matched a record high of 13.3 million bpd.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active US oil rigs in the week ending July 12 fell -1 rig to a 2-1/2 year low of 478 rigs. The number of US oil rigs has fallen over the past year from the 4-year high of 627 rigs posted in December 2022.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
