February WTI crude oil (CLG24) this morning is up +2.34 (+3.18%), and Feb RBOB gasoline (RBG24) is up +4.31 (+2.01%).
Crude oil and gasoline prices this morning are sharply higher, with crude posting a 3-week high. A weaker dollar today is supportive of energy prices. Heightened geopolitical risks are giving crude prices a boost today after the U.S. military launched strikes on three installations in Iraq, targeting a terrorist group backed by Iran that was accused of a series of drone attacks on American troops. Also, the UK navy today reported attacks on two commercial vessels sailing in the Red Sea near Yemen. In addition, today's U.S. economic reports were supportive of the energy markets.
Geopolitical risks are bullish for crude prices and have forced shippers to divert shipments around the southern tip of Africa instead of going through the Red Sea, disrupting crude oil supplies. At least twenty-five merchant ships have been attacked or approached around Yemen by Iranian-backed Houthi militants in the Red Sea since Israel's war with Hamas broke out in October.
Today's U.S. economic news shows strength in the U.S. economy that supports energy demand and crude prices. The Nov Chicago Fed national activity index rose +0.69 to a 4-month high of 0.03. Also, Oct S&P CoreLogic composite-20 home price index rose +4.87% y/y, the most in 11 months. In addition, the Dec Dallas Fed manufacturing outlook index rose +10.6 to an 11-month high of -9.3, stronger than expectations of -17.0.
A supportive factor for crude was last Monday's projection from the American Automobile Association (AAA) that a record 7.5 million people are expected to fly from Dec 23 to Jan 2, the most since the AAA began tracking the data in 2000.
An increase in crude in floating storage is bearish for prices. Monday's weekly data from Vortexa showed that the amount of crude oil held worldwide on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week rose +14% w/w to 87.12 million bbl as of Dec 22.
A bearish factor for crude was last Thursday's announcement from Angola that it is leaving OPEC amid a dispute over oil production quotas. Angola is Africa's second-largest crude producer, and the rift between Angola and other OPEC+ members is a bearish factor that signals infighting among members. Other OPEC members may balk at Saudi Arabia's attempt to force all members into a production cut.
An increase in Russian crude oil exports is bearish for crude oil prices. Tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg shows refined fuel shipments from Russia climbed to 3.2 million bpd in the four weeks to Dec 10, up +114,000 bpd from the prior week and the highest five months.
On Nov 30, OPEC+ agreed to cut crude production by -1.0 million bpd through June 2024. However, crude prices sold off on the news since no details were provided on how the cuts would be distributed among members, nor how Russia's -300,000 bpd export cut would factor into the new totals. Delegates said the final details of the new accord, including national production levels, would be announced individually by each country rather than in the customary OPEC+ communique. The market was disappointed that the extra cuts in OPEC crude output will be announced by each individual country, which suggests the reductions may only be voluntary.
Saudi Arabia said on Nov 30 that it would maintain its unilateral crude production cut of 1.0 million bpd through Q1-2024. The move would maintain Saudi Arabia's crude output at about 9 million bpd, the lowest level in three years. Russia also said it will deepen its voluntary oil export cuts by 200,000 bpd to 500,000 bpd in Q1 of 2024. OPEC Nov crude production fell -140,000 bpd to 28.050 million bpd.
Last Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of Dec 15 were -0.7% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -1.5% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -10.1% below the 5-year seasonal average. U.S. crude oil production in the week ending Dec 15 rose +1.5% w/w to a record 13.3 million bpd.
Baker Hughes reported last Thursday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended Dec 22 fell by -3 rigs to 498 rigs, just above the 1-3/4 year low of 494 rigs from Nov 10. The number of U.S. oil rigs has fallen this year after moving sharply higher during 2021-22 from the 18-year pandemic low of 172 rigs posted in Aug 2020 to a 3-1/2 year high of 627 rigs in December 2022.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
