December WTI crude oil (CLZ23) this morning is down -2.91 (-3.40%), and Dec RBOB gasoline (RBZ23) is down -7.06 (-3.08%).
Crude oil prices this morning are sharply lower Friday as Israel's ground incursion into Gaza has so far been less extensive than expected, easing concerns that the Israeli-Hamas conflict might widen and threaten crude supplies from the Middle East. A weaker dollar today and a stock rally are providing underlying support for crude prices.
Crude is under pressure today as Israel’s military action in Gaza is proceeding at a more cautious pace than expected, easing concerns that the conflict could widen in the Middle East. In addition, Iran’s foreign ministry said today that Hamas has pledged to release non-Israeli hostages “in the shortest time possible.”
Comments from consultant Energy Aspects weighed on crude prices today when they said global oil prices are capped by a worsening economic picture and "there are no direct risks to oil supplies" from the Middle East crisis.
An increase in Russian crude exports is bearish for oil prices. Tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg shows 3.53 million bpd of crude was shipped from Russian ports in the week ended Oct 22, an increase of 20,000 bpd from the previous week.
In a bearish factor for crude oil, the U.S. on Oct 18 said it would ease sanctions for six months on Venezuela's oil exports in exchange for steps to ensure the country holds fair presidential elections next year. An easing of sanctions would put additional crude supplies on the global market, with some analysts estimating about 200,000 bpd of additional supplies.
The tightness in the oil market is expected to continue due to the extension of OPEC+ production cuts. Saudi Arabia recently said it would maintain its unilateral crude production cut of 1.0 million bpd through December. The move will hold Saudi Arabia's crude output at about 9 million bpd, the lowest level in three years. Russia also recently announced that it would maintain its 300,000 bpd cut in crude production through December. OPEC Sep crude production was little changed, rising +50,000 bpd to 27.97 million bpd.
An increase in crude in floating storage is bearish for prices. Monday's weekly data from Vortexa showed that the amount of crude oil held worldwide on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week rose +5.8% w/w to 74.69 million bbl as of Oct 27.
Last Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of Oct 20 were -4.8% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were +1.1% above the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -12.9% below the 5-year seasonal average. U.S. crude oil production in the week ended Oct 20 was unchanged w/w at a record high of 13.2 million bpd.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended Oct 20 rose by +1 to 502 rigs, recovering a bit more from the 20-month low of 497 rigs posted in the week ended Oct 6. The number of U.S. oil rigs has fallen this year back after moving sharply higher from an 18-year low of 172 rigs posted in Aug 2020 during the pandemic to a 3-1/2 year high of 627 rigs in December 2022.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
