Nov WTI crude oil (CLX24) today is down -1.79 (-2.57%), and Nov RBOB gasoline (RBX24) is down -2.65 (-1.34%).
Crude oil and gasoline prices today are moderately lower, with crude falling to a 2-week low and gasoline falling to a 1-week low. Crude prices tumbled today after the Financial Times reported that Saudi Arabia is committed to increasing its crude output in December. Also, Libya's crude fields are expected to reopen shortly after government factions signed an agreement to name a new governor of Libya's central bank, a prerequisite for ending an impasse that shut down the country's crude production and exports.
Crude prices retreated today despite the action by China's government to increase stimulus measures, which should boost economic growth and energy demand. Also, today's rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high shows confidence in the economic outlook that supports energy demand.
Crude prices fell today after the Financial Times reported that Saudi Arabia is ready to abandon its unofficial oil price target of $100 a barrel to regain its market share and is committed to returning its crude production as planned on December 1.
Crude production and exports from Libya look set to resume in full, which should boost global crude supplies, a bearish factor for oil prices. Today, representatives from Libya's rival eastern and western administrations signed an agreement to name a new central bank governor, an initial step that could help the country resume its shuttered oil production. Earlier this month, Libya's eastern government declared force majeure on all oil fields, terminals, and crude export facilities as it called for a halt to all crude production and exports due to political conflict over who controls the country's central bank and oil revenues.
Concerns that conflict in the Middle East may widen and disrupt the region's crude supplies are bullish for crude. Iranian-backed Hezbollah launched a barrage of rockets, missiles, and drones toward northern Israel on Sunday, and Israeli counterattacks in Lebanon have ramped up this week, raising fears about a broader conflict that could involve Iran, a major oil producer.
A decline in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -12% w/w to 56.31 million bbl in the week ended September 20, the lowest amount in 4-1/2 years.
Crude prices found support after OPEC+ on September 5 agreed to pause its scheduled crude production hike of 180,000 bpd in October and November due to recent weakness in crude prices and signs of fragile global energy demand.
A decline in Russian crude exports is positive for crude. Weekly vessel-tracking data from Bloomberg showed Russian crude exports fell by -390,000 bpd to 2.89 million bpd in the week to September 22. Also, a decline in Russian crude production is positive for oil prices after Russia's Energy Ministry reported last Tuesday that Russia's Aug crude production was 9.059 million bpd, down -30,000 bpd from July but +81,000 bpd above the output target it agreed to with OPEC+.
Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of September 20 were -5.0% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -1.0% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -8.7% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending September 20 was unchanged w/w at 13.2 million bpd, just below the record high of 13.4 million bpd from the week of August 16.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active US oil rigs in the week ending September 20 were unchanged at 488 rigs, modestly above the 2-1/2 year low of 477 rigs posted in the week ending July 19. The number of US oil rigs has fallen over the past year from the 4-year high of 627 rigs posted in December 2022.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
