In the extraordinary political landscape in Maharashtra, there are two factions of the Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), each facing each other as part of opposing alliances around the two national parties, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress. The Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) is set to contest 21 constituencies, the Congress 17 and the NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) 10 of the 48 Lok Sabha segments in the State, under the banner of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). These parties managed to arrive at an amicable settlement as each made significant concessions to ensure unity against the Mahayuti coalition, comprising the BJP, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, and Ajit Pawar’s NCP, that has yet to announce its seat-sharing arrangement. The MVA had a tough time reaching this agreement as there were multiple aspirants for each seat. The Shiv Sena (UBT) will be fielding candidates in all five regions of the State — Konkan, western Maharashtra, Marathwada, north Maharashtra, and Vidarbha — while the NCP (SP) will concentrate its resources on seats with a higher win probability, largely in the sugar belt of western Maharashtra. The Congress’s seats are distributed across Vidarbha, western Maharashtra, and Marathwada, leaving the entire Konkan region and most of the Mumbai seats to the other two allies.
In 2019, the united Sena was an ally of the BJP and the united NCP, an ally of the Congress. Mr. Thackeray’s switching sides to the Congress-NCP triggered new political forces, and the opportunistic shifts and splits within the Sena and NCP are turning into more enduring arrangements. Troubles are far from over, however, and in many constituencies, the alliances will have to manage resentment and rebellion. The Pawar family is split between two parties, and Ajit Pawar has fielded his wife, Sunetra, against his cousin Supriya Sule in Baramati, the family stronghold. The Lok Sabha elections will be the first test of the popularity of various leaders and formations that have dramatically metamorphosed beyond recognition in the last five years. The Congress, in its enthusiasm to preserve its partnership with the Sena (UBT) and senior Pawar’s NCP, ended up losing some of its leaders who could not be given a ticket to contest. The MVA is also trying to keep Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) within its fold, though it has not been given any seats. The State is critical to the BJP’s national calculations also — it won 23 seats in 2019. Its alliance with factions of the Sena and the NCP is going to be tested and its campaign will mostly pivot around Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
