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HARRISON MILLER

Crocs Surges Past Buy Point As Earnings, Outlook Overpowers HeyDude Sales Declines

Clogs maker Crocs cleared expectations for Q4 results early Thursday. CROX stock rallied to break out from its first base in almost a year.

Crocs reported a 2.6% adjusted earnings decline to $2.58 per share, compared to FactSet expectations of a 10.6% drop to $2.37 per share. GAAP earnings increased 89% to $4.16 per share while analysts predicted $2.20 per share. Revenue rose 1.6% to $960 million, edging out forecasts of $958 million, but slowing for the fourth straight quarter.

Direct-to-consumer sales increased 6.8% while wholesale revenues shrunk 4.6%. Crocs brand revenue increased 10% to $732 million while HeyDude sales tumbled 18.5% to $228 million. However, HeyDude sales managed to come in ahead of Crocs' forecasts of a 19% sales decline.

The Broomfield, Colo.-based company reported full-year adjusted earnings increased 10.2% to $12.03 per share. Diluted earnings leapt 46.8% to $12.79 per share. Revenue for 2023 increased 11.5% to a record $3.96 billion.

FactSet expected 2023 adjusted earnings of $11.84 per share while sales were in-line with forecasts.

The company's full-year earnings rose for the last six years on an adjusted basis. Crocs hasn't reported an EPS loss on an adjusted basis since 2016.

Crocs guided Q1 adjusted earnings between $2.15 per share to $2.25 per share while revenue eases 1.5% to 0.5%. FactSet predicts Q1 earnings of $2.25 per share on a 0.6% sales decline to $879 million.

Crocs maintained its 2024 outlook following its Jan. 8 update after delivering disappointing guidance in its Q3 report from November.

For fiscal 2024, Crocs expects 3% to 5% revenue growth, driven by a 4% to 6% increase in Crocs brand sales. The company sees its HeyDude brand sales flat to up slightly from 2023. The clog maker expects full-year adjusted earnings between $12.05 per share and $12.50 per share.

FactSet analysts predict 2024 earnings of $11.90 per share adjusted on $4.13 billion in revenue.

Crocs Stock

CROX stock jumped 12.2% Thursday to about 121.63, easily clearing a 110.90 entry for an eight-week consolidation. The base is about half above, half below the stock's 10-week moving average. It is its first base as it attempts to exit a 10-month consolidation.

Shares on Tuesday slid 2.9% to end its streak of five consecutive daily gains. Crocs rallied 30% so far this year after bolting more than 20% on Jan. 8, after revising its guidance.

You can follow Harrison Miller for more stock news and updates on X/Twitter @IBD_Harrison

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