Mistakes which led to dangerous criminals released from prison going on to kill could be repeated as new government plans heap further pressure on a probation service already in crisis, The Independent has been told.
Officials are dealing with “appallingly” high workloads due to an exodus of both staff and experience, union leaders warn – prompting fears that convicts will be free to strike again.
There are also concerns that the system will not be able to cope with plans to send fewer convicted criminals to jail – part of the government’s scramble to free up space in overcrowded prisons – without radical change.
The unions are holding a crisis meeting this week with justice secretary Alex Chalk to discuss plans for low-level offenders to be spared jail and to demand more funding.
The aunt of Zara Aleena, a young lawyer murdered last year by a man wrongly freed from prison despite his violent background, warned that other families could suffer a similar tragedy to hers without government action.
Zara Aleena was murdered in June 2022 after multiple failings by probation, including labelling her killer medium-risk— (Family handout/PA)
Warnings about the perilous state of the probation service came as:
- Ministry of Justice figures for 2022 show 59 people have been convicted of murder committed while either in the care of probation or by those who had recently left supervision
- Mistakes within probation have been directly blamed in the murders of at least five people in the past two years
- One union said orders to release prisoners up to 18 days early – which have recently come into effect – are already increasing pressure on probation staff
- Figures show there were 2,390 fewer full-time probation officers than the required 6,780 as of June – a shortfall of 35 per cent
- Nearly 1,650 probation officers have quit their jobs over the past two years – a sharp rise since 2021. Two-thirds of those who quit in the last year had five or more years’ experience
Speaking to The Independent, Aleena’s aunt Farah Naz said: “The compromised and overstretched probation service, coupled with officers experiencing low morale, heightens the risk of additional errors, potentially leading to grave consequences and – at its worst – a tragic recurrence akin to the murder of our Zara.”
Tory MP Elliot Colburn, who chairs a cross-party parliamentary group on restorative justice, added: “While we’re waiting for investment and trainees to come through the system, how do we make sure that we are still able to deliver a good and safe level of service?
“We don’t want to end up with another Zara Aleena case, and absolutely that will be going through people’s heads at this time.”
But Ian Lawrence, head of the probation union Napo, warned that this risk remains “until we see politicians take steps to offer better support for the service, work with us to find ways to reduce workloads and motivate experienced staff”.
He described hearing “harrowing” accounts from newly trained employees – some handling twice the number of cases they should be – suffering “nervous meltdowns” and fearful of going to work.
Farah Naz at a vigil for her niece Zara Aleena— (PA)
While Napo backs plans for prison sentences of less than a year to be scrapped for some criminals, Mr Lawrence warned there is “no way” to suddenly increase capacity in probation without sacrificing existing aspects of the job, which sees officers supervise and rehabilitate offenders both in prison and in the community and assess their risk to the public.
He added: “If senior politicians – who have now woken up to the fact that probation matters – want staff to help them out of the hole that they’ve dug for themselves on prison overcrowding, then they need to engage with us in a way that motivates staff to undertake this work.
“That includes seriously talking to us about the need for a paid remuneration package to help us through this crisis.”
Sir Bob Neill, Tory chair of the MPs’ justice committee, said that while Mr Chalk’s plans are “the right thing to be doing”, there must be “a proper awareness of the resourcing implications” for the already “very hard-pushed” probation service.
Ms Naz said ministers’ plans to reduce prison numbers and reoffending rates “require a comprehensive, sustainable approach that won’t further demoralise an already beleaguered service”.
“If staff morale remains low, as it seems to be the case, mistakes are likely to persist,” Ms Naz said, raising concerns over the impact that further overburdening a service “already in crisis” could have on morale.
In the year to April, more than 400 charges for serious further offences were brought against offenders either in the care of probation officers, or within 28 days of leaving supervision.
Out of 86 cases analysed by inspectors, 30 involved murders and 20 related to rape. “Risk of harm” assessments were found to have been inaccurate or incomplete in 44 per cent of these cases, and 42 per cent of perpetrators had previously been assessed as medium-risk.
Mr Lawrence said: “Our members have to work under that shadow of ‘have we looked at the case properly when I’ve got twice the workload I should have?’ People are under so much pressure that they cannot always guarantee they do the necessary checks and balance.
Alex Chalk is meeting with Napo, GMB and Unison on Monday to discuss how the probation service will cope with plans to free up space in prisons— (PA)
“Now if we get an influx of early release prisoners back into the community we’ve got to be sure that the supervision leaves no doubts about them risk-wise. So we can only do that if some of the other work we do drops off the edge.”
At this week’s meeting, unions are trying to determine which parts of probation work can be cut back, said Mr Lawrence: “Unless the government does something to retain staff, the haemorrhage is going to get worse.”
Just one of the 31 Probation Delivery Units (PDUs) inspected between June 2021 and July 2023 was rated as “good”, with 15 given the lowest rating of “inadequate”, then-chief probation inspector Justin Russell said last month. On average, each was scored just five out of a possible 27.
Two-thirds of probation officers described their caseload as “unmanageable”, up from 50 per cent two years ago, said Mr Lawrence.
In what inspectors say is “a reflection of the stress” many employees are under, 55 per cent of working days lost to staff sickness in the past year were due to mental health issues – up from 43 per cent five years earlier.
One ‘completely overwhelmed’ probation worker says they plan to quit five years after joining the service as ‘a job for life’— (iStock)
Confronted over the huge staff vacancies and “unmanageable” caseloads by a House of Lords committee last month, Mr Chalk was asked whether the probation service could cope with any more work.
Mr Chalk replied: “We’re completely onto it, lots of resources are going into this area, and I think you will see a recovering and improving probation service over the coming months and years.”
A Ministry of Justice spokesperson said: “Our hard-working probation officers do incredibly important work protecting the public and helping offenders turn their backs on crime.
“That is why alongside our long-term reforms to prisons to keep the public safe from crime, we are ensuring the Probation Service is well resourced by investing £155m extra a year compared to 2019 to recruit more staff and reduce workloads.
