Covid travel restrictions are back. From 5 January, every traveller flying from mainland China to England will need to provide a negative test result before being allowed on the plane. It is not yet clear what kinds of tests will be acceptable, but the previous policy was to allow lateral flow/rapid antigen tests as well as more reliable and expensive PCR tests.
In addition travellers flying direct from China to Heathrow may be invited to take a second test on arrival. The government says as many as 20 per cent of arriving passengers will be checked, though they are able to decline the invitation.
The government announced the measures on Friday night – a day after saying there were no plans to reintroduce Covid testing.
What exactly is the government proposing – and why?
Passengers arriving from mainland China, not including Hong Kong, to England from 5 January will need to take a Covid-19 test no more than two days before departure and show the negative result to airline staff at check-in.
Most flights from mainland China currently arrive at London Heathrow (with a weekly Beijing-Manchester flight on Hainan Airlines), but the intention is to apply the restrictions UK-wide.
After they land, passengers may be asked to take a second test, “to enhance existing measures to monitor for new variants”. Only Heathrow wil offer this option, and there is nothing to stop travellers declining and leaving the airport.,
Since China abandoned its “zero Covid” policy, the virus has spread extremely fast through the People’s Republic. Beijing plans to ease border restrictions next week, allowing more citizens to leave.
The UK government fears the sudden changes in China increase the risk of a dangerous variant arriving. That concern is shared by Italy, the US, Japan and an increasing number of other countries that have introduced testing requirements.
Weren’t we told that Covid restrictions were over?
Yes. Last March, the-then transport secretary, Grant Shapps, said the UK was “leading the world in removing all remaining Covid travel restrictions” and thereby “keeping international travel moving”.
The government said it would “maintain a range of contingency measures in reserve” but deploy them only “in extreme circumstances” to delay any future harmful variants of Covid entering the UK should the need arise.
On Thursday, the government told me emphatically: “There are no plans to re-introduce Covid testing or additional requirements for arrivals into the UK.”
But now Mark Harper, the transport secretary, insists: “China’s lack of reliable Covid data means these sensible, proportionate and temporary measures are needed ahead of their borders reopening.”
Why only China, when many other countries have high levels of Covid?
Covid is ripping through China, and the government in Beijing plans to ease its border restrictions next week, allowing more citizens to leave.
Ministers here say the travel restrictions are necessary to detect “any new variants which may be circulating in China that could evade the immune response of those already vaccinated or which have the potential to successfully outcompete other variants and spread internationally”.
They are concerned about what they say is Beijing’s unwillingness to share data on the spread of the virus. But the UK government says it is “working with China on next steps” and that the measures will be reviewed “if there are improvements in information sharing and greater transparency”.
Are many people arriving in the UK from China?
No. According to aviation analytics firm Cirium, six non-stop flights with 1,795 seats are due into the UK from China over the next week. The planes will come in from Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Qingdao. To put that in perspective, more than 10 times as many people come in from New York alone each day.
In addition, there is a weekly flight from Beijing to Manchester.
Three daily flights from Hong Kong serve London Heathrow on Cathay Pacific and British Airways. It is not clear whether people who travel from other parts of China to Hong Kong will be challenged.
Many passengers between China and the UK travel via the Gulf, in particular Dubai and Doha, and it is also unclear whether they will be checked.
A spokesperson for the Department of Health and Social Care said: “The government is working with international partners at pace to determine scope and will announce further details in due course.”
If an arrival from China tests positive for Covid, what happens next?
The UK Health Security Agency is launching surveillance from Sunday 8 January which will see randomly selected arrivals from mainland China tested for Covid at the airport.
The government says: “All positive samples will be sent for sequencing.”
Arrivals with Covid will need not to self-isolate nor go into hotel quarantine – which is what positive cases who arrive in Japan from China have to do.
The government says anyone in this situation should follow the standard UK guidance.
It says: “You can pass on the infection to others, even if you have no symptoms.
“Try to stay at home and avoid contact with other people for five days after the day you took your test.
“During this period there are actions you can take to reduce the risk of passing Covid-19 on to others.
“You may wish to ask friends, family or neighbours to get food and other essentials for you.
“If you leave your home during the five days after your positive test result the following steps will reduce the chance of passing on COVID-19 to others:
- wear a well-fitting face covering made with multiple layers or a surgical face mask
- avoid crowded places such as public transport, large social gatherings, or anywhere that is enclosed or poorly ventilated
- take any exercise outdoors in places where you will not have close contact with other people
“At the end of this period, if you have a high temperature or feel unwell, try to follow this advice until you feel well enough to resume normal activities and you no longer have a high temperature if you had one.”
What do the scientists say?
Professor Susan Hopkins, chief medical advisor at the UK Health Security Agency, said: “In order to improve our intelligence, we are enhancing our surveillance, in addition to our current routine testing protocol.”
But she said there is no evidence of potentially harmful variants circulating.
“The evidence suggests the recent rise in cases in China is due to low natural immunity and lower vaccine uptake including boosters rather than the emergence of new Covid-19 variants,” she said.
Ahead of the ban being announced, Christina Pagel, professor of operational research at University College London, said China’s situation “gives a lot of potential for mutations and new variants to emerge”.
But Professor Pagel – a member of the Independent Sage group of scientists – said: “Simply adding requirements for China isn’t effective and to me seems like performative restrictions. Variants spread beyond borders and they can emerge anywhere.”
She said that to be effective, travel restrictions would require negative PCR testing of everyone flying to the UK from anywhere in the world.
After the move was announced Adam Kucharski, co-director of the Centre for Epidemic Preparedness & Response, said: “If an epidemic is growing, most infected people will have been infected very recently. Which also means they’re less likely to test positive.”
How has the travel industry reacted to the move?
With anger in some quarters. China is extremely important for global tourism and business travel. Before the pandemic, it accounted for one-fifth of all international spending. The travel industry was looking forward to a swift increase in Chinese people venturing abroad to help their financial recovery.
Clive Wratten, chief executive of the Business Travel Association, called the move “a sucker punch to the entire travel industry” and “a huge step backwards for customer and corporate confidence”. He said Britain could be “inching back towards being an isolated island”.
But Paul Charles, chief executive of The PC Agency, said: “This is a sensible and targeted light touch measure which ensures those departing China are Covid-negative. It also buys time for the UK government to gather and assess more information themselves about the extent of Covid within the country.
“This measure will help to prevent any future wider measures which would be damaging to travel overall.”
Could Covid testing spread?
That is clearly a possibility. China is a special case of a vast population in which Covid infections are running extremely high and with a lack of openness from the health authorities.
But following the government’s speedy U-turn on China, if other nations are perceived to present a threat because of high infection levels or fears of dangerous variants then pressure could grow for expanding controls once again.
The World Health Organisation insists: “Travel bans will not prevent the international spread, and they place a heavy burden on lives and livelihoods.”
