National COVID-19 test positivity has climbed above 3 percent for the week ending Aug. 8, the first time it has crossed that line since March, according to CDC data, with positivity rising in every state. Emergency department visits remain low in many regions but are increasing in the West and South as of Aug. 12.
The more consequential development sits underneath the numbers. Officials who track this at the state level are now saying publicly that they cannot characterize the size of the increase, because the denominators that once gave a positivity rate its meaning have thinned out.
That matters this week specifically. Schools across most of the country are reopening, families are taking end-of-summer trips, and the updated vaccine for the coming season is not yet on pharmacy shelves. Households making decisions in that window are working with a coarser picture than they had in previous years, and knowing that is more useful than any single percentage.
A Threshold Crossed Just Before School Reopens
Severity indicators have not moved much. Hospitalizations and deaths are not showing a substantial rise, and overall acute respiratory illness sits at the low end of the scale. Flu and RSV activity remain at expected summer levels.
Scale matters here too. Positivity has continued climbing since the week ending Aug. 8 and was approaching 4 percent by mid-August, but at the same point last year the weekly rate was above 9 percent. This wave started later and from a lower base than recent summers.
Summer increases have occurred in the United States every year since 2020, and this one is arriving on schedule rather than as a surprise. Caitlin Rivers, an outbreak science expert at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, told CNN that August falls squarely within COVID season.
Officials Can See Direction but Not Size
Scott Harris, Alabama's state health officer, told a briefing hosted by the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials that COVID in his state registers as an uptick rather than a surge, and that it is not showing up in hospitalizations or mortality data. Then he described the underlying problem.
"We don't know how to describe these numbers that we're seeing," Harris said, explaining that officials no longer know what the denominator is, and that a positive test often arrives without clinical data to put it in context. He made the remarks in comments reported by CNN this week.
That is a surveillance statement, not an alarm. During the height of the pandemic, daily case counts were published on the CDC website. Those are gone. What remains is a set of proxies: wastewater concentrations, emergency department visit percentages, laboratory positivity, and modeled transmission estimates. Each measures something real. None of them counts infections.
Home testing widened the gap. Someone who tests positive at home and stays there never enters any surveillance system. That interacts badly with a shrinking clinical testing base, because the tests that do get run are concentrated among people sick enough to seek care.
MedicalDaily reported earlier this week that CDC modeling shows COVID growing across the country while emergency visits stay low. Those modeling estimates describe direction. They were never designed to describe burden, and the current data environment makes the distinction harder to bridge.
Two Wastewater Systems, Two Different Verdicts
The clearest illustration of the measurement problem is that the country's two main wastewater systems disagree.
The CDC wastewater surveillance data classified national SARS-CoV-2 activity as very low as of the week ending Aug. 8. WastewaterSCAN, the Stanford-run monitoring program that uses a different methodology and reports on a faster cycle, classified activity as high nationwide, with an upward trend over the prior 21 days in every region except the Midwest, where it was medium.
Amanda Bidwell, WastewaterSCAN's scientific program manager, told TODAY that concentrations have risen steadily in recent weeks and that "SARS-CoV-2 concentrations are up 106% compared to July 2026." The West and South carry the highest concentrations.
Both readings can be defended. They sample different sites, normalize differently, and report on different lags. The CDC uses a higher historical baseline for comparison, which tends to delay its dashboard at the start of a wave. Neither system is wrong, but a household deciding whether to mask on a flight next week cannot resolve a discrepancy this wide from a single national figure.
Reading Local Signals When National Ones Blur
The practical response is to look closer to home rather than at national aggregates. State and county health department dashboards, local wastewater sites and the CDC's state and territory wastewater levels give a more relevant reading than a national average that blends a rising West with a flatter Northeast.
For most households, the appropriate response is awareness rather than action. For a smaller group, the calculation is different. Adults 65 and older, infants, people who are immunocompromised, and those with multiple chronic conditions have reason to confirm two things now: current vaccination status, and a clear plan for reaching antiviral treatment quickly if symptoms start, since antivirals work best when taken early. Those conversations belong with a clinician.
Anyone with a sore throat, congestion, cough, fever, or unusual fatigue this month should consider testing rather than assuming a summer cold, because the symptoms overlap almost completely with other circulating viruses and testing is what determines whether antivirals are an option. The CDC recommends staying home while symptomatic and says people can resume normal activities once they have been fever-free for 24 hours without medication. Severe symptoms, including trouble breathing, chest pain, confusion, or bluish lips, require urgent evaluation regardless of test result.
An updated vaccine formulation for the coming respiratory season is expected in the fall. MedicalDaily reported this week that infectious disease specialists expect updated flu and COVID vaccines to be covered despite a stalled federal advisory committee. Timing questions for high-risk household members belong with a clinician.
What stays unresolved is whether hospitalizations follow. Transmission and severity can move independently, and this summer they have.
Key Questions Answered
What is the new figure? National COVID test positivity rose above 3 percent for the week ending Aug. 8, the first time since March, and has kept climbing.
Is this wave bigger than last year's? No. At the same point last year, the weekly positivity rate was above 9 percent. This wave started later and lower.
Are hospitals filling up? No. Emergency department visits for COVID remain low in most regions, and hospitalizations and deaths are not showing a substantial rise.
Why do the two wastewater systems disagree? CDC and WastewaterSCAN use different sampling networks, methods, and baselines. CDC lists national activity as very low; WastewaterSCAN lists it as high.
Which regions are seeing the clearest increases? The West and South, in both emergency department visits and wastewater concentrations.
Who should act on this now? Adults 65 and older, infants, immunocompromised people, and those with multiple chronic conditions should confirm vaccination status and an antiviral plan with a clinician.
When should someone seek urgent care? Trouble breathing, chest pain, confusion, or bluish lips require immediate evaluation.
