A Belfast virologist is predicting a new Covid-19 variant and wave this autumn.
It comes as new statistics show more than 5% of people in Northern Ireland tested positive for the virus in early July.
In Northern Ireland, infections have increased to an estimated 107,600 people, or one in 17 - the highest level since the beginning of April, and up from 98,400, or one in 19, according to the Office for National Statistics.
Read more: Covid NI: Self-isolation guidance relaxed and lateral flow test availability extended
Hospital numbers are also continuing to increase, driven by the spread of the latest coronavirus subvariants Omicron BA.4 and BA.5.
Patient numbers in Northern Ireland are currently around three-quarters of the peak reached during the Omicron BA.2 wave in April.
Dr Connor Bamford, from the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine at Queen's University Belfast, said we're still in the midst of a new wave of infection caused by new variants of the virus with record levels of new infections and re-infections.
"Severe disease and deaths are relatively low compared to what we saw in 2020/21 thanks to the vaccines," Dr Bamford told Belfast Live.
"That being said, deaths due to Covid have risen through June and July and the impact of infections irrespective of the severity of disease is being felt across all sectors of society.
"It’s likely the wave will begin to subside before the end of summer but I expect a long tail of infections to continue until autumn."
Looking ahead to winter, Dr Bamford said th e goal will be to minimise the amount of severe disease and deaths due to Covid, as well as the impact of infection on staff absences.
"A major feature of the Covid pandemic is the rapid emergence of new variants driving wave-after-wave of infection and deaths. We saw this with Alpha, Delta, Omicron, and now the various sub-variants of Omicron, like BA.2, BA.4 and BA.5.
"We are always expecting and planning for the next variant that will emerge but particularly so when this occurs during winter when there is a considerable burden on people’s lives and the healthcare system due to the cold, and other infections like influenza.
"Like we saw with Alpha and Omicron during the winters of 2020 and 21, we will very likely be talking about a new variant and wave come autumn time."
When asked why so many people are testing positive for the virus again, Dr Bamford explained: "We are seeing record levels of infection both from first-time infections but also of repeat infections, in both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals.
"This is likely driven by a combination of the sheer number of infections happening, the new variants, and the fact that immunity may be waning since your last vaccine or infection.
"What is a bit of good news is that while you can get re-infected, it is likely that upon reinfection the disease will not be as severe."
Earlier this month, Stormont's Department of Health announced it has reduced to five days the advised self-isolation period after a positive Covid test.
Adults who test positive for Covid-19 are now advised to stay home and avoid contact with other people for five days after the day of test or from the day symptoms started.
As children tend to be less infectious than adults, this period is reduced to three days for children under 18 years of age.
However, while the self-isolation period has been reduced, people are advised to avoid contact with individuals at higher risk from Covid-19 for the full 10 days.
They should also avoid visiting others in care homes, hospitals and other health and social care settings.
Testing to end isolation is no longer advised.
"Preventing new infections through isolation of infectious people is a major tool we have in limiting the impact of Covid alongside vaccination," Dr Bamford added.
"Reduction of the isolation time to five days irrespective of whether you are still positive by antigen/lateral flow test will result in more infection occurring, compared to removing isolation if you test negative on two consecutive days.
"Recent studies on Omicron infections have shown that you can remain infectious past day five up to day 10. This new advice is likely another public health balancing act between direct Covid impacts on people’s health and indirect impacts through say staff absences in the health care sector.
"My advice would be to leave isolation only when you are negative on two consecutive days but if you must leave after day five and you are still positive, maintain effective control measures like using face coverings, maintaining distance, and avoiding close contact with lots of people indoors."
Meanwhile the availability of Covid-19 lateral flow testing in Northern Ireland has been extended until July 31.
Under current arrangements, lateral flow tests are available to members of the public with Covid-19 symptoms, including those who may be eligible for Covid treatments.
Tests are also available to a small number of groups without symptoms including health and social care staff, those visiting others in health and care settings, and those providing close personal care to someone at higher risk should they contract Covid-19 .
"I would like to see the continuation of the availability free antigen/lateral flow devices and high-quality masks to the public to reduce levels of infection," Dr Bamford added.
On Friday, new guidance from the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) will see everyone aged 50 and over in Northern Ireland offered a Covid booster vaccine this autumn.
The new advice is aimed at boosting protection ahead of possible further waves of the virus. Frontline health and social care workers and those aged five to 49 in a clinical risk group, including pregnant women, will also be eligible for the booster dose.
Health Minister Robin Swann said delivering the vaccine programme would be a “major logistical operation” for the health service.
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