Northern Ireland is now approaching the third Christmas of the Covid-19 pandemic but this year's festive season feels very different.
There’s little question we’re in a better position compared with 2020 and 2021.
Two years ago, our Christmas plans were significantly curtailed with a range of restrictions in place across the UK. But winter social mixing that took place before a full national lockdown was implemented in early January 2021 caused the number of deaths to rise quickly, reaching levels similar to those in the first wave.
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At the same time a new Alpha variant was starting to spread but soon the first vaccine doses were beginning to be administered, offering hope of suppressing the virus.
Predictions were more optimistic in December 2021 with most of the population having received two vaccine doses but the spread of the Omicron variant threatened festive plans.
A huge wave of cases followed but vaccinations proved successful in keeping the numbers of deaths relatively low.
Christmas 2022 has brought a new Omicron variant, the BQ.1 strain and recent rises in coronavirus infections are thought to have been driven by the variant.
BQ.1 stems from BA.5, the Omicron type that fuelled a summer resurgence of infections and is being monitored because of its “rapid growth”.
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has said there is a potential for it and mutations like it to cause a “further increase in transmission” of the virus in the near future.
Covid-19 infections are rising in most parts of the UK but are still well below levels reached earlier this year, latest figures from Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggest.
In Northern Ireland, the number of people currently testing positive for Covid-19 stands at 38,700, or one in 45, compared with 36,700 in the weekly previous survey, or one in 50.
Dr Connor Bamford, from the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine at Queen's University Belfast, believes it would be wrong to underestimate this new virus and minimise its impact.
"While still showing a rise in hospitalisations and deaths, these were much fewer in number compared to previous waves, likely due to building up of prior immunity from vaccination and boosters, as well as previous infections. Other newer variants may drive similar waves over Christmas," Dr Bamford told Belfast Live.
"There’s a lot we don’t understand about the Covid virus and what it does to our body. As always, SARS-CoV-2 can surprise us like it did with Omicron last Christmas.
"There are many other variants alongside BQ.1 that could come into play more over the mixing during Christmas. Also we must remember there are people who do not have sufficient immunity against the virus, such as those immunocompromised among us and so for them, there is little respite from the current Covid situation.
"We are in a much, much better place than this time last year but still a bit of caution could save some people having a miserable time or even worse with Covid, especially if you’re interacting with vulnerable people."
When asked about the current spread of Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and Group A streptococcal bacteria (strep A), Dr Bamford said: "This is the first winter for us in NI where we’re seeing all the usual seasonal viruses and bacteria come back into circulation alongside Covid, including RSV, influenza and strep A.
"Because of this we’re seeing more cases that we would usual do. I wouldn’t panic and things will probably go back to normal soon but people should be vigilant for severe symptoms and seek medical help if concerned.
"Thankfully for Covid and flu we have vaccines, and simple antibiotics will work against Strep A if given early enough."
And with Christmas just around the corner, the Public Health Agency (PHA) says time is running out to get your winter vaccines if you are eligible.
Dr Brid Farrell, Deputy Director of Public Health at the PHA is reminding all eligible groups to get their winter vaccine now before time runs out.
“Particularly with Christmas nearly upon us we must not forget the double threat of flu and Covid-19 when mixing with friends and family,” she said.
“Vaccines are the most effective way to prevent infectious diseases as they teach our immune system how to recognise and fight viruses.
“Being vaccinated against both viruses will not only help to protect you and those around you from flu and Covid-19, but will help protect everyone from a potentially devastating double threat this Christmas.”
Further information on the winter vaccines is available here.
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