New figures suggest Covid is now no longer significantly more dangerous than flu in the UK, according to research by the Financial Times.
The FT's chief data reporter published figures showing how the number of people dying with Covid has fallen massively over the last year since the vaccination rollout accelerated in January 2021.
At the start of the pandemic, Covid was more than 10 times more lethal than seasonal flu yet estimates suggest the two are are now more comparable - although Covid remains slightly more dangerous for people over 40.
Countries with lower vaccination and booster rates, including the United States, have seen smaller falls in the lethality of Covid suggesting that vaccination is playing a bigger role in the apparent weakening of the virus than any intrinsic changes in Omicron.
Estimates of death rates for seasonal flu vary significantly depending on vaccination levels and the age of the patient.
In 2020, before the vaccination rollout, independent research Marc Bevand used estimates of flu deaths in the US with Covid deaths in the US to show that Covid was 13 time more dangerous than flu at age 60.
The Financial Times research used English data from the ONS to show that that the difference now is that Covid is just 1.9% more dangerous than seasonal flu in over 60s.
For people under 40, who are not routinely vaccinated against influenza in the UK, flu is now more lethal than Covid.
The newspaper and the Telegraph used ONS data to show that the case fatality rate for Covid across all age groups in the week up to January 26 was now around 0.14%. Differing estimates for the case fatality rate of influenza put it between 0.04% and 0.2%. As many flu infections are not recorded, case fatality rates are often seen as an overestimate.
In the United States, which has seen its early vaccination advantage undermined by a reluctance among parts of the population to get the booster jab, it is now being described as a pandemic of the unvaccinated.
Peter Hotez, professor of virology at the Baylor College of Medicine in Houston, told the FT opposition to vaccination was the “leading killer” of middle-aged adults in the US.
"Biden is right when he says we’re facing a pandemic of the unvaccinated — but it’s also now becoming a pandemic of the unboosted,” he added.
At the moment, much higher levels of Covid in the community means that it is killing many more people than flu in the UK - even if their severity is now more comparable.
The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics show that there were 1,378 deaths with Covid-19 in England and 102 deaths with Covid-19 Wales in the week ending January 21. Of these deaths, Covid-19 was recorded as the underlying cause of death in 72.9% of these - 1,082 deaths.
The ONS figures show there were fewer than half as many deaths recorded in the same week in which influenza and pneumonia were the underlying cause of death. Across England and Wales, 427 deaths were recorded as being "due to" pneumonia or influenza, compared to 1,082 "due to" for Covid.
In 2019, total mortality from influenza was 1,223 and total mortality from influenza and pneumonia was 26,398 in England and Wales.
