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The Conversation
The Conversation
Adrian Esterman, Professor of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of South Australia

COVID hospitalisations and deaths are rising faster than cases – but that doesn't mean more severe disease

Australia Disease Omicron Western Australia

Australia is currently in its third Omicron wave (second if you live in Western Australia). This one is caused by the subvariants BA.4 and BA.5.

New variants gain an advantage over previous variants by being able to spread more rapidly. This could be because they can replicate faster, are better able to latch onto human cells, or are better able to escape immunity.

Experts are worried our health system will soon be overwhelmed, and then there is the potential loss of loved ones. At this point, the number of COVID cases is rising but still well short of the peak seen early this year. Yet hospitalisations and deaths are nearing previous peaks. What is going on?

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