Almost 100 aged care residents are dying from Covid each week with active cases linked to the more than 700 current outbreaks in facilities reaching near-record levels for 2022, data shows.
An analysis of government data on Covid in aged care shows a worrying surge in the weekly number of deaths, number of active outbreaks, and cases among residents.
The industry fears that two-thirds of aged care homes across Australia may be grappling with outbreaks in the next six weeks.
It comes as the federal health minister, Mark Butler, warned millions of Australians faced infection with the virus in coming weeks.
The last available data showed 91 deaths were reported by aged care providers in the week ending 8 July, up from 58 the week prior, and well above the weekly average of 69 since the beginning of March, when the last Omicron wave ended.
More than 2,000 aged care residents have now died this year alone, dwarfing the death tolls of 686 and 231 from 2020 and 2021 respectively.
A further 110 active outbreaks were reported by providers in the last week on record, up from 627 to 737. The number of cases associated with those outbreaks is now 8,633, the worst on record since mid-February, the peak of the summer wave.
Both the sector and advocates for older Australians are warning that the current Covid wave through aged care is causing “great concern”.
The Council on the Ageing chief executive, Ian Yates, said the surging case numbers and death rates shows the need for greater control measures to stop the growth of Covid in the more general community “because that’s where it comes from into aged care”.
“While most of the community is ‘living with Covid’ vulnerable older people in aged care, and in the community, are dying from Covid, and in increasing numbers,” he told the Guardian. “This is despite high rates of vaccination and more stringent infection control measures and compulsory mask wearing.”
Yates called for an increased effort to administer fourth vaccine doses to aged care residents, but said the government was otherwise doing everything possible in the aged care system itself.
“The question is really in the wider community to more strongly promote measures that will slow the growth of Covid – such as mask wearing and other protective behaviours,” he said. “People need to realise that, although Covid spreading might not feel as serious to them, taking preventive measures protects older people.”
The Aged and Community Care Providers Association interim chief executive, Paul Sadler, said the sector would see a “substantial impact in coming weeks”.
He said the unions and providers were also predicting a significant loss in staffing.
“Through that January to February period we had anywhere up to 30% and sometimes even as high as 50% of staff unavailable,” he said. “Now, the risk is that the next six weeks could see a similar uptick so that we could be getting two-thirds of aged care homes across Australia with outbreaks and we could have substantial impact on staffing availability.”
“So we would hope that the ADF is on standby and it may well be that they need to be reactivated in the next fortnight.”
The Australian Nursing and Midwifery Federation (ANMF) said its members, including aged care workers, were exhausted and stressed.
The federal secretary, Annie Butler, called on the community to wear masks, stay home while sick, and ensure their vaccinations were up-to-date to help relieve pressure on aged care services.
“ANMF members are continuing to do their best, trying to hold our health and aged care services together and make sure people get the care they need when they need it – but after two-and-a-half years with no respite, they’re exhausted, they need the community’s support,” she said.
“We need to help protect everyone from Covid and other infectious illnesses and minimise the stress on the health and aged care systems.”
