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Wales Online
National
Cathy Owen

Covid briefing: Experts monitor a second type of Omicron that may be spreading faster

Here are the morning headlines for Thursday, January 20, as medical experts track a second type of Omicron that may be spreading faster.

Dr Tom Peacock, a virologist at Imperial College London, says that there is evidence that the new type of Omicron, known to scientists as BA.2, is growing compared to Omicron (known as BA.1) in the UK, Denmark and Germany.

He said the growth across multiple countries may mean it is more transmissable than Omicron,

He said: "Consistant growth across multiple countries is evidence BA.2 may be some degree more transmissible than BA.1.

"Unfortunately this is really where the evidence mostly ends. We do not currently have a strong handle on antigenicity, severity or a much evidence for how much more transmissibility BA.2 might have over BA.1 ."

The scientist did say that very early observations from India and Denmark suggest there is no "dramatic difference" in severity compared to Omicron, but the data is being closely monitored.

Writing on Twitter, he said: "So how worried should we be? Those working in sequencing/surveillance should definitely be keeping a close eye on BA.2 (and very likely already are!).

"Personally, I'm not sure BA.2 is going to have a substantial impact on the current Omicron wave of the pandemic. Several countries are near, or even past the peak of BA.1 waves. I would be very surprised if BA.2 caused a second wave at this point.

"Even with slightly higher transmissibility this absolutely is not a Delta -> Omicron change and instead is likely to be slower and more subtle."

The latest figures for the Office for National Statistics show that the rate Covid is spreading in Wales is clearly falling. This is based on population sampling and is not affected by changes to testing rules.

In Wales, almost one in 25 people had Covid in Wales in the last week- lower than in England, Scotland or Northern Ireland. The ONS estimated that 169,100 people in Wales, equivalent to one in 20, had Covid in the previous week. Read all the detail on that here.

Workers face first commute since Plan B axed

Commuters in England are set to travel in to work for the first time since Plan B measures to curb the spread of Omicron were axed on Wednesday.

The Prime Minister told MPs in the Commons that work-from-home guidance would be dropped immediately and rules on face coverings in classrooms would also be scrapped in England from Thursday.

Other measures including the requirement to wear face masks on public transport and in shops will end next Thursday.

The legal requirement for people with coronavirus to self-isolate will also be allowed to lapse when the regulations expire on March 24, and that date could be brought forward.

The move could help appease Mr Johnson's Tory critics at a time when the Prime Minister has been under pressure over Downing Street parties.

It comes after Covid infection levels fell in most parts of the UK for the first time since early December, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Ministers in Wales are taking a more cautious approach.

A Welsh Government spokesperson said: "Last week the First Minister set out a phased plan for Wales to gradually move out of alert level 2 and fully back to alert level 0 from 28th January while continuing to protect public health in Wales. Our cautious, science-led approach will allow us to make sure the signs of improvement continue before we make further changes." Read more here.

The Welsh Government has begun easing its restrictions in a four-part plan. You can read that in full here.

The next review is due to be on Friday, January 21. There have been questions as to whether Wales' stricter rules have made a difference.

Senior medics have criticised the decisions in England as "not guided by data", while teachers' leaders have branded the end of mask mandates in schools "premature".

Dr Chaand Nagpaul, chair of the British Medical Association (BMA) council, said scrapping Plan B measures at such a pace "risks creating a false sense of security" with the NHS still under crippling pressure.

"This decision clearly is not guided by the data," he said.

And Matthew Taylor, chief executive of the NHS Confederation representing health bodies, said now "is not the time for complacency about this virus".

Boris Johnson clings on

Boris Johnson was battling on after a senior Tory demanded "in the name of God, go" and a Conservative MP defected to Labour over allegations of rule-breaking parties in Downing Street. Read Boris' pledge to stay as PM here.

Former Brexit secretary David Davis called for the Prime Minister's resignation in a Commons intervention on Wednesday before later warning the party faces "dying a death of 1,000 cuts" if they do not act swiftly to oust him.

Minutes before Prime Minister's Questions, Bury South MP Christian Wakeford dramatically switched sides, refusing to "defend the indefensible" over alleged breaches of Covid rules.

But Mr Johnson was said to have been handed a fragile reprieve by some colleagues considering forcing a no confidence vote until they hear the result of senior civil servant Sue Gray's inquiry into events in No 10 during restrictions.

He had been holding talks with backbench MPs to shore up support and prevent the 54 letters being sent to Sir Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee of Conservatives, that are required to trigger a vote of no confidence.

With Mr Wakeford facing anger from former colleagues on the Tory benches, some suspected he had temporarily galvanised support for Mr Johnson ahead of Ms Gray's report, which is now expected next week.

No 10 said Mr Johnson will fight any no-confidence vote launched against him and insisted he expects to fight the next general election.

Commons Leader Jacob Rees-Mogg sought to downplay Mr Davis's intervention, describing the former minister as having "always been something of a lone wolf".

"No-one would call David a lightweight, he's a very serious political figure, but his comments today were too theatrical," he added.

Minister in Northern Ireland to consider relaxing restrictions

Ministers in Northern Ireland are set to consider relaxations to Covid-19 restrictions.

They will be informed by the latest Department of Health data which indicates Northern Ireland is likely at the peak of cases in the Omicron surge.

A paper, seen by the PA news agency, advises that case numbers fell substantially in the last week "primarily due" to reduced PCR tests due to a change in testing policy,

But it notes the region is "likely to be at or around peak in terms of case numbers for the Omicron wave at present".

The paper indicates the true extent of the rise in case numbers is masked by the impact of the change in testing policy, with confirmatory PCR tests no longer required.

The data suggests between 1 in 15 and 1 in 20 of the population tested positive for the virus in the week up to January 7, indicating around 18,000 cases per day, which corresponds to the central and pessimistic scenarios presented in mid-December.

Hospital admissions and Covid bed occupancy increased in the last week, but started to slowly fall in the last few days.

The paper notes Northern Ireland may experience a second peak in case numbers in the next two weeks as a result for further spread of the virus among school age children.

It notes the severity of Omicron appears to be "substantially reduced" from the Delta variant, and it is "likely that current measures will be sufficient to maintain peak hospital numbers at a significantly lower level than last January".

However the paper warns that very high levels of community transmission may result in significant staff absences with the potential to reduce capacity in health trusts.

On Wednesday evening, First Minister Paul Givan said that the self-isolation period for Covid-19 will reduce from seven days to five from January 21. Ministers in Wales are still considering this.

WHO say international travel bans should be lifted

The World Health Organization has recommended lifting or easing international traffic bans, citing the ineffectiveness of the measures to suppress the spread of the Omicron variant.

The UN health agency recently updated its international health regulations recommendations during an emergency committee meeting on Wednesday.

Recommendations included to “lift or ease international traffic bans as they do not provide added value and continue to contribute to the economic and social stress” of some countries.

Implementing blanket travel bans are “not effective in suppressing international spread” and “may discourage transparent and rapid reporting of emerging variants of concerns” the agency said in a statement.

The failure of travel restrictions introduced after the detection and reporting of Omicron variant to limit international spread of Omicron demonstrates the ineffectiveness of such measures over time.

Travel measures such as masking, testing, isolation/quarantine and vaccination should be based on risk assessments and avoid placing the financial burden on international travellers, according to their recommendations.

The WHO also said the requirement to provide proof of vaccination against Covid-19 for international travel may not be needed as “the only pathway or condition” permitting international travel.

Do not require proof of vaccination against Covid-19 for international travel as the only pathway or condition permitting international travel given limited global access and inequitable distribution of Covid-19 vaccines.

State parties should consider a risk-based approach to the facilitation of international travel by lifting or modifying measures, such as testing and/or quarantine requirements, when appropriate, in accordance with the WHO guidance.”

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