PUNE: Maharashtra may have the second highest number of active Covid-19 cases in the country after Karnataka, but in terms of cases per million population, the state actually trails several others, including Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Delhi and Haryana, an analysis by the health department has shown. The analysis, experts said, proves that the state has a considerably lower Covid burden than others.
The number of active Covid-19 cases per million in the state stands at 2,087. Karnataka has 4,381, Tamil Nadu 2,365, Kerala 5,062, Delhi 4,484 and Haryana has 2,342 cases per million residents.
Experts said that calculating the number of cases per million population is the scientific way to compare the statewise burden of any disease. This is because different states will have different population sizes.
"Maharashtra is the second-most populous state in India after Uttar Pradesh. The absolute number of Covid cases in various states cannot convey the real picture of the disease burden. That’s why we use the per million population method. Since Maharashtra’s population is nearly 13 crore and when Covid cases are calculated per million population, the state’s actual disease burden is much lower when compared to several other regions," a state health department official said.
At a recent press conference, Lav Agarwal, joint secretary, Union health ministry, had said that 19 states had over 10,000 active cases. He added that Maharashtra, West Bengal, Delhi, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, Kerala and Gujarat are emerging as states of concern due to the rise in Covid-19 cases.
But the state’s additional chief secretary (health) Dr Pradeep Vyas said, "Though Maharashtra has the second highest active cases in India in terms of absolute numbers, its actual disease burden is much lower than several other states, if the number of Covid cases are calculated per million population."
National task force member Dr Subhash Salunke, "According to me, not the entire state, but some urban locations of Maharashtra will come out of the ongoing surge earlier than many other states. So economic activities, which have been subdued, could resume by the middle of next month, at least in urban locations of Maharashtra. The Covid peak in some urban areas of the state [which have, so far, not seen peaks] should be seen by this monthend. Cases are then expected to start declining.:
Dr Salunke said there is definitely some Covid spillover into the rural areas, but by middle of February, major urban regions such as Pune, Mumbai, Thane, Nagpur and Nashik are likely to start showing a reasonably balanced situation, which is a point when positivity rates as well as daily cases reduce.
