Polanski said he did not expect people to agree with the Green party on everything.
One of my favourite phrases is, if you agree with us on seven out of 10 things, then vote for us, join the party.
If you agree with us on 10 out of 10 things, that’s a bit weird.
He also said he thought it was important for the national conversation that people did not agree with each other all the time.
Polanski says, even with Andy Burnham as Labour's candidate, Greens could have won
Q: Would you have won if Andy Burnham had been Labour’s candidate?
Polanski said he and Spencer both changed their views on this as the contest went on.
He said, when Burnham was blacked, he “punched the air” because thought that meant the Greens could win.
But, as the contest went on, he became less convinced that Burnham would have won.
Having seen the anger out on the streets about the Labour party, Andy Burnham is still a Labour politician. And I would say, no matter how popular you are, no matter even if you have some of the right positions, I think people in this country are looking at Labour MPs or high-profile Labour politicians and saying, where are your red lines?
Polanski claims Greens have more members than Labour if Scotland included
Polanski said that, taking into account Scotland, the Greens have more members than Labour. He said:
When you look at membership numbers, we’re so close to 200,000.
By the way, 200,000 is Green party membership for England and Wales. It doesn’t include Scotland. If you included Scottish Greens, we’ve already taken overtaken the UK Labour party.
But Polanksi also admitted that the a current, up-to-date membership total for the Labour party is not available.
Polanski is the leader of the Green party of England and Wales. The Scottish Greens are a separate party.
Polanski accuses Starmer of trivialising serious issue with drugs policy attacks, saying public 'more mature' on this
Back at the Green press conference, Zack Polanski criticised Labour for the way it attacked the Greens over their plans to legalise drugs. He said drugs were a serious issue. He went on:
We have the highest death rate from drugs in the whole of Europe.
And Keir Starmer, rather than taking a public health approach or looking at harm reduction, thought it sensible to make cheap political attacks.
Now that’s all water under the bridge because Hannah’s sat here as the MP.
But I do hope this Labour government will reflect on how they’ve conducted themselves during this campaign, how they’ve taken some really serious issues, trivialised them and made them into cheap political points.
Whereas actually, I think the public are in a lot more mature and nuanced place than sometimes politicians who have been around for too long and … don’t have the courage to lead.
This is from Kevin Schofield from HuffPost UK quoting a Labour MP responding to what Heidi Alexander said earlier. (See 8.08am.)
A Labour MP texts: "Isn't much to interpret. He's burying the Labour Party." pic.twitter.com/GuJjXee8qX
— Kevin Schofield (@KevinASchofield) February 27, 2026
Polanski and Spencer then took questions.
Q: What do you say to accusations you were playing sectarian politics?
Spencer said the Greens were doing what they always do, trying to unite people.
And she said she was proud of the fact that she united different groups.
We unite people on the shared common ground and the beliefs that we all have. I’m really proud here that our communities, our backgrounds, may be different sometimes, but we are genuinely united over that common feeling of struggling, and struggling together and sticking up for each other.
Spencer says this was the Greens’ 127th target seats.
That means there are 126 seats where the Greens could win on a smaller swing.
She says the party is on track to make “big gains” in the May elections.
Hannah Spencer says voters in Gorton and Denton have 'rejected hate' and embraced hope
Hannah Spencer starts with thanks to people who helped her to get elected. She says she is honoured, and promises to work “so hard” for the people who elected her.
I can’t wait to get started and work to influence policy that makes lives better for people like us, to bring down the cost of living, introduce rent controls, and get the litter and fly tipping off our streets.
She criticises Reform UK as a party “that dances to the tune of their billionaire donors” and Labour as a party that “stooped so incredibly low”.
She goes on:
I don’t want to dwell on it for too long, but I have been appalled at some of the divisive, dog-whistling campaigning from other parties.
I know in my heart – and everyone knows here – everybody here belongs, everybody deserves to have their needs met, everyone deserves a voice in our democracy.
And today, the people here in this constituency have sent a very clear message. We’ve rejected hate and embraced the politics of hope – not blind hope, hope that is rooted in an ambitious but very achievable plan to transform our country for the better.
Zack Polanski and Hannah Spencer hold press conference
Zack Polanski, the Green party leader, and Hannah Spencer, the new Green MP for Gorton and Denton, are now holding a press confernce.
Polanski starts by restating his claim that there are now no no-go areas for the Greens. (See 7.53am.)
He says there are 70 days to go until the local elections.
And the Greens have lots of other candidates like Hannah Spencer, he claims.
And he claims Labour is now facing an existential crisis.
Labour MP Brian Leishman calls for Starmer to resign
The Scottish Labour MP Brian Leishman has called for Keir Starmer to stand down. In a post on social media, he said:
The blame lies with Starmer & the people that surround him. Blocking Burnham was wrong & he did it for his own benefit.
The political idea that we should try & out-Reform Reform is wrong & been rejected.
Time he did the right thing for the country & the Labour Party, and go.
Leishman was one of four Labour MPs who had the whip suspended for a few months last year for disloyal conduct summed up, according to one unnamed Labour source, as “persistent knobheadery”.
Rayner says byelection defeat shows Labour needs to be 'braver'
Angela Rayner, the former deputy PM and a leading candidate to replace Keir Starmer in the event of a leadership contest, has posted a message on social media saying Labour has to be '“braver” in the light of the byelection defeat.
This result must be a wake up call. It’s time to really listen - and to reflect.
Voters want the change that we promised - and they voted for.
If we want to unrig the system, if we want to make the change we were sent into Government to make, we have to be braver.
A labour agenda that puts people first.
That’s what all of us across our movement need to rededicate ourselves to this morning.
SNP claims Labour now facing 'historic defeat' in Scotland
Just as Plaid Cyrmu believe the Gorton and Denton byelection result bodes well for them in the Senedd elections in May, the SNP has welcomed it too. Scottish parliamentary elections are taking place in May too and the SNP is now quite confident about seeing off the Labour threat.
This is from Pete Wishart, the SNP’s deputy leader at Westminster.
This result is a resounding rejection of Keir Starmer’s Labour party - it is a rejection that will be repeated in Scotland come May 7th when voters here will get their chance to cast their verdict on a Labour Party that promised ‘change’ but has only delivered chaos.
A Labour party now defined by their broken promises will be fully deserving of the historic defeat Scottish voters are waiting to give them.
Here is a Guardian panel with analysis of the Gorton and Denton byelection result, with contributions from Polly Toynbee, Adam Ramsay, Remi Joseph-Salisbury and Henry Hill.
And here is an extract from Polly’s assessment.
Labour’s prospects for May’s elections plunged even lower last night. A Green party that once seemed flaky will now often look like the safer anti-Reform vote if they can field more pitch-perfect candidates like Hannah Spencer: plumber, councillor, all-round good sort. Her honeyed victory words will soften many a Labour voter’s heart. She is a leftist without the bilious fist-shaking of the old sectarian socialists: “Instead of working for a nice life, we’re working to line the pockets of billionaires. We are being bled dry … I think that absolutely everybody should get a nice life.” Nice. Byelections are often no guide to a general election three years away, but the trouncing of Farage may make this one historic.
Momentum, the leftwing Labour group, has issued a statement saying that the party needs a change of direction after the byelection defeat and that “control-freakery, top-down politics and political timidity” have all been problems.
Losing Gorton and Denton could not be a bigger warning: it's time for a change in direction.
— Momentum 🌹 (@PeoplesMomentum) February 27, 2026
Read our statement below ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/mgIj9Txydx
Labour MP Jon Trickett says Starmer should 'reflect on his position' following byelection defeat
The Labour MP Jon Trickett has said that Keir Starmer should “reflect on his own position”.
Speaking to Times Radio, Trickett said:
My experience is that people are fed up with the fact that we aren’t delivering change. Now, it’s up to Keir Starmer to look in the mirror and make a decision about his own personal future, because obviously it’s important to be a prime minister, but it’s more important to deliver justice and fairness in a society that is really crippled by the lack of fairness and justice. Social equality has gone out the window. People are living in poverty or on the edge of poverty, millions of people. And they’re looking, they look for Labour for change and they haven’t yet seen it …
I think [the byelection result] signals a bigger change in the way that people see the country, its politics and its leaders, and Labour absolutely must reflect on this in a serious way. And that does mean, I’m afraid, that the prime minister needs to reflect on his own position.
When politicians say a leader should reflect on their position, they don’t mean that they should reflect and then conclude that it is right to say.
Trickett is on the left of the PLP, has never been a leading member of the Starmer fan club, and so in some respects these comments are not surprising. Many Labour MPs would say the same in private. But there have not been many Labour MPs saying this publicly.
Plaid Cymru welcomes Gorton and Denton byelection result as evidence 'old guard' parties are 'slipping away'
Steven Morris is a Guardian reporter covering Wales.
The leader of Plaid Cymru, Rhun ap Iorwerth, has said the Gorton and Denton result shows the “old guard are slipping away”. By old guard, he means Labour and the Tories.
Ap Iorwerth is the favourite to become first minister of Wales at the Senedd (Welsh parliament) elections in May, ending 100 years of Labour dominance here, and the party will relish being in the spotlight for two days at their spring conference starting today.
When he speaks at the conference this afternoon, ap Iorwerth will claim the May election is a stark choice between Plaid and Reform UK, which polls suggest are coming second.
He will say:
We offer hope - hope that can overcome people’s fears of other political forces leading Wales down a dark path. Hope that things can get better for our health service, that our elderly relatives won’t have to wait so long for treatment or that the burden of childcare costs on our sons and daughters’ household budgets will be eased.
And hope that, finally, Wales will have a government willing to stand up to Keir Starmer, to Jo Stevens [secretary of state for Wales] and anyone else denying our nation the fairness it deserves.
The Gorton and Denton result has echoes of what happened at the Caerphilly byelection last year when Plaid won, pushing Reform into second place and Labour third.
There have been interesting comments, too, from the leader of the Greens in Wales, Anthony Slaughter, on BBC Wales. Asked if he saw Plaid as rivals or allies, he said: “On this issue in standing up to Reform, we are allies.”
Whether that opens the door for Plaid and the Greens cooperating at the Senedd elections – perhaps in a very loose way – so as not to split the progressive vote remains to be seen.
Heidi Alexander says Britons don't want Polanski as PM, and Green policies won't 'survive contact with national electorate'
Alexander said that, when she heard Hannah Spencer’s victory speech (see 8.29am), she thought it was very similar to what she said when she was elected in 2024.
We are committed to delivering change for this country. We inherited public services that were on their knees, school roofs were collapsing, buildings were crumbling. People couldn’t get an NHS dentist and were having to pull their own teeth out. We saw high streets that are run down.
Now, I understand that when there’s a byelection and people are looking in their bank account at the end of the month and they’re still struggling to pay their bills and to make ends meet, they feel frustration with the governing party, they feel impatient. And I share that impatience about improving lives for the mainstream majority in this country.
She also insisted that the byelection result did not show there was a “mainstream majority” for making Zack Polanski, or Nigel Farage, PM. She said:
What I cannot accept is that there is a direct read across from the results of this byelection, where people voted for a Green MP in Gorton and Denton, and the outcome of the next general election, because I don’t believe that that result yesterday suggests that there’s a mainstream majority for Zack Polanski being the next prime minister, or for that matter Nigel Farage.
And I don’t think the offer of the Green party will survive contact with the national electorate. Let’s remember that they are a party that are soft on defence.
Heidi Alexander says it's 'offensive' for Unite boss Sharon Graham to claim ministers obsessed with their 'rich mates'
Heidi Alexander, the transport secretary, was asked about Sharon Graham’s “rich mates” jibe in an interview on the Today programme. (See 8.39am.) You could hear the anger in her voice as she replied:
I’m sorry, but I totally find it offensive that I should be told stop listening to your rich mates – of which I don’t have many – because I spend every single weekend of my life knocking on doors in Swindon talking to people who voted for me to be their Labour MP at the last general election.
Updated
These are from my colleague Jessica Elgot on the byelection result.
The Green victory in Denton is the result which will have a far
— Jessica Elgot (@jessicaelgot) February 27, 2026
greater effect on Labour than a Reform win
The blithe assumption progressives have nowhere else to go has been proved catastrophically wrong.
Can’t help thinking of this quote from a Labour minister, a year ago… pic.twitter.com/6DXtPJCO8I
Labour MPs on the ground yesterday said previous Labour voters started going Green very late, and remonstrated with them on the doorstep about potentially letting in a Reform MP. One minister said they were repeatedly told off for not “sorting out” only one option against Reform
Until yesterday, Labour really thought the seat was very winnable according to their own data. In the end it wasn’t even that close. They just never took it seriously that their own past voters would vote tactically for another party.
And this is from Patrick Wintour, the Guardian’s diplomatic editor, and former political editor.
Nick Robinson on BBC fairly said many will dismiss the Gorton & Denton result by pointing to a “large Muslim vote still motivated and angry about what happened in Gaza”. Many are wrong.
It is not just Muslims that are motivated by the treatment of Palestinians, and these voters are not just angry about what happened in Gaza, but about what is happening in Gaza.
Maybe this vote is not as big as the stop the boats lot, but Gaza is still a large part of what is driving the alienation from Labour. Little sign in the foreign office or No 10 of any recognition of this.
Here is Kiran Stacey’s analysis of the byelection result.
And here is an extract.
Hannah Spencer’s victory, with a majority of 4,402 votes over Reform, gives the Greens their fifth Westminster MP – 120 miles away from the next closest Green seat, proving the party can now win outside of its cluster of southern support. She told supporters at the vote count on Friday morning: “To people here in Gorton and Denton who feel left behind and isolated, I see you and I will fight for you.”
The Green party vote share of 41% is four times bigger than their previous best byelection result, and the increase in their vote is five times larger than they have achieved in any byelection since 2010.
Officials for the Greens and Labour said there had been a shift among Muslim voters, with many mentioning Starmer’s positions on Gaza as a key reason for moving away from Labour.
Spencer sought to capitalise on this with a campaign that targeted Muslim voters, including with videos in Urdu, in an echo of Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral campaign in New York. “I can’t and won’t accept this victory tonight without calling out the politicians and divisive figures who constantly scapegoat and blame our communities for all the problems in society,” she said from the count. “My Muslim friends and neighbours are just like me: human.”
Mainstream, a new centre-left Labour group backed by Andy Burnham, has issued a statement saying that the byelection result was an “absolute disaster” and the party needs a “fundamental reset”.
In a statement, its interim council said:
The Gorton and Denton result is an absolute disaster for Labour. Clearly, we now risk no longer being seen as the natural home for progressive voters.
This loss was avoidable. Angeliki [Stogia, the Labour candidate], members and our party staff worked tirelessly, but our leader and sections of the NEC blocked the one candidate who could have won it for us. That decision now looks like a catastrophic error.
We need an immediate and fundamental reset now.
Unite's general secretary Sharon Graham tells Starmer to stop listening to 'rich mates' and govern as 'real Labour'
Sharon Graham, the Unite general secretary, has issued a statement saying that the byelection result shows why Keir Starmer should “stop listening to [his] rich mates” and start governing as ‘real Labour”. She says:
If Labour needed any further wake up calls - this is clearly one. Labour need to now ditch the gimmicks and get back to being Labour - not new, not one that plays games, but real Labour.
Workers and families are hurting. We have a cost of living crisis largely being ignored and investment in jobs for the here-and-now being blocked by a Treasury that doesn’t seem to understand the basics of what is needed to build Britain.
Stop listening your rich mates and start listening to everyday people.
At the time of the last election Unite was an outlier among the Labour-affiliated unions because Graham was not fully supportive of Keir Starmer in the way other general secretaries were. But now Unison’s new general secretary, Andrea Egan, is making the arguments that Graham has making for some time (see 6.50am), and some Labour MPs are also becoming increasingly vocal in calling for a shift to the left.
'We're working to line pockets of billionaires' - Hannah Spencer's victory speech
Hannah Spencer, the new Green MP for Gorton and Denton, is getting a lot of praise for her victory speech. We have covered extracts from it earlier, but here is a fuller version.
I didn’t grow up wanting to be a politician. I am a plumber.
I am no different to every single person here in this constituency. I work hard. That is what we do.
Except things have changed a lot over the last few decades, because working hard used to get me something.
It got you a house, a nice life, holidays, it got you somewhere.
But now, working hard, what does that get you?
Because life has changed. Instead of working for a nice life, we’re working to line the pockets of billionaires. We are being bled dry.
People in their thousands told me, on the doorstep and at the ballot box, that what we are sick of is being let down and looked down on.
That we are sick of our hard work making other people rich …
I won’t accept this victory tonight without calling out politicians and divisive figures who constantly scapegoat and blame our communities for all the problems in society.
My Muslim friends and neighbours are just like me, human.
Now, to my customers, I’m sorry, but I think I might have to cancel the work that you haven’t booked in, because I’m heading to parliament.
And when I get there, I will make space for everyone doing jobs like mine,
We will finally get a seat at the table.
We can demand better without hating each other.
We ran a hopeful campaign backed by thousands of volunteers and activists.
We defeated the parties of billionaire donors.
Because this is Manchester. We do things differently here.
Updated
Reform UK chair David Bull says his party accepts legitimacy of byelection result - after Farage earlier alleged 'cheating'
David Bull, the Reform UK chair, told the Today programme that his party was not contesting the legitimacy of the byelection result.
In a statement issued soon after the result was announced, Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, described the Green party win as “a victory for sectarian voting and cheating”. (See 5.09am.)
Asked what Farage was referring to, Bull complained that the Greens had distributed election leaflets in Urdu. He said they included “false statements” about his party, and he questioned whether this was good for “community cohesiveness”.
He also referred to the statement issued by the group Democracy Volunteers last night claiming they had witnessed incidents of “family voting” at polling stations – individuals being accompanied into the polling booth by a family member, raising concerns they were being told how to vote. Bull said this was illegal and should be “stamped out”.
But, asked if he thought this family voting issue could have affected the result, Bull replied:
If I’m being candid, probably not.
And, asked if Reform UK was challenging the legitimacy of the election result, he replied:
No. And I think it’s really important that we stand back and look at all of this with cool, clear heads. We’ve all been up all night, and so any rash decision would be a bad decision, in my humble opinion.
When it was put to him that Hannah Spencer, the new Green MP, focused on cost of living issues in her victory speech, echoing some of the things Reform UK was saying, Bull accepted this point. But he also claimed these were not the issues the Greens were actually campaigning on.
Heidi Alexander urges Labour not to 'over-interpret result' and says party can recover from this defeat
Heidi Alexander, the transport secretary, has been giving interviews on behalf of the government this morning. Speaking to Times Radio, she urged colleagues in her party not to “over-interpret the result”.
She said:
There is not a direct read-across from what happens in by elections, where there are some quite unique dynamics at play, and then what happens in a general election.
And whilst people in Gorton and Denton yesterday may have voted for a Green member of parliament, that doesn’t then mean that a majority of people in this country want to vote for Zack Polanski to be their prime minister, or for that matter, for Nigel Farage to be their prime minister …
We shouldn’t over-interpret this result, and just because we had the result that we did last night, doesn’t mean to say … that the party can’t recover from this.
Polanski rejects claim Greens were being sectarian in using picture of Starmer with Modi in byelection leaflet
In the Today interview, Nick Robinson put it to Zack Polanski that the Greens distributing leaflets showing Keir Starmer with the Indian PM Narendra Modi, a Hindu nationalist, in a constituency with a large Muslim population, could be seen as sectarianism.
Polanski did not accept that. He said that he was one of only five Jewish people to lead a British political party, and he said he took antisemitism as seriously as Islamaphobia. He said the party was making a point about Modi’s human rights record.
When it was put to him that it was Starmer’s job to have good relations with with other foreign leaders, Polanski claimed that Starmer was going beyond that, and he accused him of having “cosy relationships” with leaders like Benjamin Netanyahu.
Polanski says Gorton and Denton win shows there are now 'no no-go areas' for Greens
Zack Polanski, the Green leader, has been interview by Nick Robinson on the Today programme.
Polanski said Gorton and Denton was his party’s 127th target seat. He said there were now “no no-go areas” for the Greens.
Q: Hannah Spencer in her victory speech talked about people who work hard but do not get rewarded. How would you change that?
Polanski says he would distribute wealth more fairly.
People are really struggling. And we know the biggest problem at the heart of all of this is inequality.
We’re living through decades where rich people have got richer and richer, and the gap has got wider than ever before. So it’s time to redistribute that wealth and power.
So, for instance, we’ve been proposing a wealth tax, but also we want to look more widely at things like making sure that students aren’t saddled with debt for decades and decades.
When Robinson put it to him that a wealth tax would just lead to wealthy people leaving the country, Polanski said that the Greens were proposing a 1% tax on assets of £10m or more, or 2% on £1bn or more.
He said Switzerland has a wealth tax and “is literally famous for having wealthy people in it”.
Labour MP says result 'catastrophic' and Starmer should revert to Corbynite agenda that won him party leadership
The Labour MP Karl Turner has described the Gorton and Denton byelection result as “catastrophic” for his party in an interview on the Today programme. Turner is not a regular leftwing critic of the party’s leadership, like Richard Burgon (see 7.03am), but he has recently become very outspoken because he is leading the fight against the plan to restrict jury trials.
Here are some extracts from his interview.
Turner said the result was “catastrophic”.
It’s catastrophic isn’t it? That’s the truth. It couldn’t be any worse. Having the greens in Manchester is the worst result we could have expected or we wanted.
He said that Andy Burnham should have been allowed to stand as the candidate in the seat.
He said Labour would be wrong to write this off as a standard, mid-term defeat for a governing party.
He said that he agreed with the Unison leader Andrea Egan’s argument about Labour needing to be more leftwing. (See 6.50am.) Asked about her comments, he said:
The reality is we can’t possibly out-rightwing Reform on immigration and we can’t out-leftwing the Greens on progressive policy. That’s our problem.
If we started to be Labour, we might sort of have a bit of a chance.
Asked what that would look like, he replied:
It looks like socialism to me … that’s what I think it looks like. I’ll tell you what it isn’t; it’s not doing away with juries in criminal proceedings. That’s the type of stuff we’re doing without rolling the pitch that takes Labour MPs by surprise, puts us in a position where we have to vote against our own government without any discussion. That’s the stuff that’s been happening. It’s got to stop.
He said Starmer needed to “get a grip”. He did not call for a new leader. He said, if you look at alternative candidates, “there’s a problem with everybody”.
But he said that Starmer should pursue leftwing policies, like a wealth tax. When it was put to him that voters rejected these ideas when Jeremy Corbyn was leader, Turner said that was because Corbyn was leader. When it was put to him that he seemed to be calling for “Corbyn’s policy, but Starmer in charge”, Turner replied:
That’s what we were promised. That is what [Morgan McSweeney] set Stamer up to be. He was going to be the Jeremy Corbyn, but the electable version; 25 minutes after he was got elected as leader. Labour MPs are cheesed off not just because of what’s happened in the last 18 months of a Labour government, [but] because of the last four years.
Updated
Here is a Guardian graphic showing how the vote share changed in the byelection.
Labour has 'fallen into electoral Valley of Death' - what polling experts are saying about Gorton and Denton result
Here are three elections specialists on the significance of the Gorton and Denton result.
Prof John Curtice, the BBC’s elections expert, says in a BBC article that the result is not just a reflection on Labour’s performance since 2024.
Yet it would be a mistake to believe the result in Gorton and Denton simply reflects disappointment with the leadership he and his government have provided since the 2024 election.
Rather the by-election confirmed the message of the 2024 election that two of the key foundations of Labour’s traditional electoral coalition have crumbled away.
Labour could once be assured in Gorton and Denton of the support of, first, less well-off working class voters and, second, those from a minority background, both of which are especially numerous in the constituency and both of which were until recently bastions of support for Labour across the country as a whole.
However, the last remnants of Labour’s relative strength among working class voters across Britain disappeared at the 2019 general election - and they failed to return in 2024. Now it is Reform that is especially successful at appealing to such voters.
Rob Ford, a politics professor who lives in the constituency next door to Gorton and Denton, says the result suggests Labour has fallen into an “electoral Valley of Death”.
Gorton and Denton first thoughts - incredible result for Greens who won long battle to be best placed anti-Reform candidate - helped by being the obvious anti-Labour candidate for disappointed progressives. As I noted in the Observer last month, a Revolt on the Left is growing
As I noted in my Swingometer profile of the seat this result - Green win over Reform with Lab 3rd - is the nightmare scenario for the incumbent govt. They have fallen into the electoral Valley of Death. Rejected in the centre. Rejected on the right. And now rejected on the left
This May’s local & devolved elecs - which already looked set to be grim for Labour - may become apocalyptic if the Greens surge in the wake of this victory. So many Labour seats in Green friendly territory are up - all seats in inner London & many metros
Labour risk being wiped out by Reform in the ‘red wall’ type metros - Barnsley, Calderdale, Wakefield, Sunderlands etc - & being wiped out by the Greens in what we may now need to start calling the ‘Green wall’ - diverse, student & grad heavy Lab areas where Reform are no threat
Peter Kellner, the former YouGov president, says in a post on his Substack blog that Labour is heading for “dreadful trouble” in the local elections.
For Labour the result is plainly catastrophic. Indeed, its 25.3 point drop since 2024 understates the scale of its disaster. In 2019 it won 67.2 per cent, then lost 16.5 percentage points in 2024, mainly due to the intervention of the Workers Party. In as far as Muslim voters have deserted Labour, much of the desertion had already happened two years ago. What happened last night cannot be fully explained by Gaza.
Nor does a fall in turnout explain Labour’s plight. This has often been cited in the past to argue that supporters stay at home in the by-election but return to the fold for the following general election. This time, turnout was almost the same as in 2024. To be sure, some former Labour voters will have stayed at home, while Reform and the Greens picked up some new voters. But the lion’s share of Labour’s 9,000 lost votes did not stay away: they switched to other parties.
There is quite separate evidence of the depth of the hole in which Labour now finds itself. Week after week by-elections are held for local councils. More than 200 have been held since last May. Greg Cook, Labour’s former head of political strategy, and Mark Pack, a Lib Dem peer and meticulous number cruncher, tell the same story. Labour has failed to gain a single seat, and lost three-quarters of the seats it was defending.
If the local elections this May show anything like this pattern of gains and losses, Labour will be in even more dreadful trouble.
Labour MP Richard Burgon says 'Starmer and his clique' to blame for Labour's defeat
Richard Burgon, who is secretary of the Socialist Campaign group in parliament, which represents leftwing Labour MPs, has blamed “Keir Starmer and his clique” for Labour’s defeat and said the party must respond by shifting left.
In a statement, he said:
Blame for Labour’s defeat lies squarely with Keir Starmer and his clique.
They put factional interests over having the candidate best placed to win, Andy Burnham.
If Labour is to be the “Stop Reform” party, then the leadership must stop treating progressive voters with contempt - and start appealing to them.
That means a return to real Labour values - through policies like a Wealth Tax, public ownership of energy and water, and an ethical foreign policy that are all popular with the public.
And it means ditching the approach of trying to ape Reform and kicking the left, that has alienated so many people who have voted Labour previously.
It is worth pointing out that some of Starmer’s “clique” have already gone; Morgan McSweeney left his post as the PM’s chief of staff at No 10 earlier this month, and the leadership team in No 10 is being reconstituted.
Greens dismiss Farage's response to Spencer's win as Trump-style attempt to undermine democratic result
The Green party has described Nigel Farage’s claim that it won because of “sectarian voting and cheating” (see 5.09am) as a Trump-style attempt to undermine the result of a democratic election.
A Green spokesperson said:
This is an attempt to undermine the democratic result and is straight out of the Trump playbook.
We’ve just won a historic byelection by a comfortable margin.
We’ve shown the country that Greens can beat Reform, despite their big business donations.
Labour 'failing on every count' under Starmer, says Unison leader Andrea Egan in call for party to shift left
Labour’s defeat in Gorton and Denton is likely to reignite calls for Keir Starmer to be replaced as leader. Lucy Powell, Labour’s deputy leader, appeared to anticipate this in comments earlier this morning, when she insisted that Starmer was “the person for the job”. (See 5.31pm.)
But this morning Andrea Egan, the relatively new leftwing general secretary of Unison, one of the two biggest unions backing Labour, said the party is “failing on every count” under Starmer. In a statement she said:
The Greens won for a simple reason. Many traditional Labour supporters, in Manchester and across the country, want to see progressive values robustly defended against the far-right, not gleefully abandoned.
A Labour government should be standing up for workers, defending migrants and refugees, and taking the fight to Nigel Farage rather than letting him set the agenda.
Under Keir Starmer the party is failing on every count, leaving the Greens to fill the vacuum.
Cosying up to the rich and powerful, and protecting their interests whilst attacking ordinary working people and the left has singularly failed. The prime minister is now reaping the electoral consequences of that strategy.
If the government wants to survive, it urgently needs to stand up for workers and defend our fundamental values.
Labour had 13th highest fall in support in byelection, says John Curtice, and Tories had worst ever byelection result
Prof Sir John Curtice, the BBC’s elections expert, says this is the first byelection in the modern era when neither Labour nor the Conservative party were in the top two (apart from one where Labour disowned their candidate). Here is an extract from his take for the BBC.
Rather than winning narrowly, the [Green party] won 40.7%, enough to put them as much as 12 points ahead of second placed Reform. It represented as much as a 27.5 point increase on the party’s share in 2024.
Labour, who had not hitherto lost an election in the area since 1931, fell into third place. The party’s 25.4% of the vote represented a near halving of their 50.8% of the vote in 2024 and the 13th biggest ever fall in the party’s support in a byelection.
Meanwhile, the Conservatives lost their deposit with just 1.9% of the vote, their worst ever byelection result.
Apart from the exceptional circumstances of the Rochdale by-election in 2024, when Labour disowned their candidate, leaving George Galloway to defeat a second-placed independent candidate, it is the first time that neither Labour nor the Conservatives have been one of the top two parties in a by-election contest.
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Losing Reform UK candidate Matt Goodwin claims result evidence of 'dangerous Muslim sectarianism' in UK
Matt Goodwin, the Reform UK candidate who was defeated, has issued a statement claiming that the byelection result was evidence of “dangerous Muslim sectarianism”. He said:
We are losing our country. A dangerous Muslim sectarianism has emerged. We have only one general election left to save Britain. Vote Reform every chance you get. I will continue the fight. I will always fight for you. I will stand at the next general election. Matt.
It is difficult to know what this means beyond the fact that there are a large number of Muslims in Gorton and Denton and that they chose not to vote for Reform UK.
Speaking at the count, Goodwin explicitly accused the Green party of engaging in sectarian politics. He said:
We’ve not engaged in sectarian politics like the Greens. We’ve communicated in English on national language. We’ve not communicated in Urdu or Punjabi. We’ve actually talked about the issues that are facing local people. We didn’t prioritise Gaza.
Hannah Spencer, the new Green party MP for Gorton and Denton, has said that it was Reform UK that was engaging in divisive politics. (See 4.50am.) Reform puts opposition to immigrants at the heart of its platform.
Polanski says many ex-Labour voters will never return to Starmer's party, and Greens best party to defeat Reform
Zack Polanksi, the Green party leader, has claimed that the Gorton and Denton result shows that the Labour party has lost some of its old voters for good and that voting Green is now the way to defeat Reform. In a statement he said:
This used to be one of Labour’s safest seats. In this by-election almost half of their 2024 voters abandoned them and many switched to voting Green, meaning they finished 3rd. The Green party saw a record-breaking swing in our direction and more than tripled our vote.
Labour fought a shameful, dirty campaign – spreading lies about Green policies and even faking a tactical voting website. They knew they couldn’t win, but they risked splitting the vote and letting Reform in.
People everywhere will now know that voting Green is the way to defeat Reform. Many ex-Labour voters told our canvassers that they will never go back to a party that supports genocide, fuels racism, and has failed to deliver on its promise to improve life for people across the country.
Full results in Gorton and Denton byelection
Good morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Adam Fulton.
So, in the end, it wasn’t even close.
Here are the detailed results from the Press Association.
Hannah Spencer (Green) 14,980 (40.69%, +27.53%)
Matt Goodwin (Reform) 10,578 (28.73%, +14.67%)
Angeliki Stogia (Lab) 9,364 (25.44%, -25.32%)
Charlotte Cadden (C) 706 (1.92%, -5.98%)
Jackie Pearcey (LD) 653 (1.77%, -2.05%)
Sir Oink A-Lot (Loony) 159 (0.43%)
Nick Buckley (Advance UK) 154 (0.42%)
Joseph O’Meachair (Rejoin) 98 (0.27%)
Dan Clarke (Libertarian) 47 (0.13%)
Sebastian Moore (Soc Dem) 46 (0.12%)
Hugo Wils (Comm Lge) 29 (0.08%)
Green maj 4,402 (11.96%)
26.43% swing Lab to Green
Electorate 77,501; Turnout 36,814 (47.50%, +0.70%)
2024: Lab maj 13,413 (36.69%) - Turnout 36,560 (46.80%)
Gwynne (Lab) 18,555 (50.75%); Moffitt (Reform) 5,142 (14.06%);
Gardner (Green) 4,810 (13.16%); Burney (WPB) 3,766 (10.30%); Welsh
(C) 2,888 (7.90%); Reid (LD) 1,399 (3.83%)
Labour says result 'clearly disappointing'
Labour party chairperson Anna Turley has called the Gorton and Denton result “clearly disappointing”.
Byelections were normally difficult for the party of government and this election was no different, she said.
“We have had thousands of conversations over the last few weeks and we know the majority of voters here did not want the poisonous politics of Nigel Farage and Reform.
“We will continue to deliver a programme for government that tackles the cost of living crisis families are facing, creates opportunities for young people and invests in our public services,” Turley said, quoted by PA Media.
The politics of anger and easy answers offered by the Greens and Reform won’t deliver this.
We will move forwards with a relentless focus on delivering the renewal communities across Britain want to see.
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Some images from the night as the Greens won the byelection, with Reform coming second and Labour pushed into third.
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Lucy Powell backs Starmer to stay as PM and Labour leader, saying he's 'right person' for job
More here from the Guardian’s North of England editor, Josh Halliday:
On voting day in the Gorton and Denton byelection Labour insiders had seemed more confident as polling showed they were virtually neck-and-neck with the Greens. They hoped voters might stick with Labour rather than back an insurgent party and risk a Reform win.
But the Greens’ energetic campaign – Hannah Spencer found near-instant local fame as “Hannah the plumber” while thousands of volunteers travelled from across the UK to support her – was enough to secure victory.
Labour sources said the party had not been forgiven by many of its Muslim voters for its stance on Gaza – an issue capitalised on by the Greens in the Manchester side of the constituency.
“Gaza has not been forgotten or forgiven,” said a Labour councillor in the constituency. “Lots of us are now worried for our seats”.
Labour’s deputy leader, Lucy Powell, said Starmer was “resolute in his job” when asked about the prime minister’s future.
I know that Keir is the right person for that job … This is about politics as well – we’ve got to get our politics clearer so people know that we are on their side, we are standing up for them.
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The Green party won 40.7% of the byelection vote while Reform finished second on 28.7% and Labour came third with 25.4%, according to agency reports.
Among those respective candidates, Hannah Spencer received 14,980 votes, Matthew Goodwin 10,578 and Angeliki Stogia 9,364.
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Farage claims Green party win was 'victory for sectarian voting and cheating'
Nigel Farage has responded to the byelection result, claiming on social media:
This election was a victory for sectarian voting and cheating.
Matt Goodwin was a great candidate for us.
Roll on the elections on May 7th.
It will be goodbye Starmer and goodbye to the Tory party.
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The Greens’ victory in a Labour stronghold is its first ever in a Westminster byelection and establishes the party as a serious political force and a credible anti-Reform alternative.
It will deepen concerns among Labour MPs that Keir Starmer’s party is haemorrhaging voters on the left in an effort to thwart the rise of Nigel Farage’s Reform, reports Josh Halliday.
The result will also prompt further scrutiny of the prime minister’s decision to block Andy Burnham from standing as the Labour candidate in a city where he enjoys significant public support.
It is the first time in nearly 100 years that the Gorton area of Manchester has not been represented by a Labour MP.
See the full report here:
Here are some shots of Hannah Spencer after the historic byelection win for the Greens.
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Hannah Spencer, who had mentioned in the speech that she was a plumber, also said: “To many customers, I’m sorry, but I might have to cancel the work. Because I’m heading to parliament, and when I get there, I will make space for everyone doing jobs like mine.”
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Hannah Spencer hits out at Reform UK with attack on 'divisive' figures who scapegoat Muslims
Speaking from the podium, Spencer also said her victory had come off the back of people being desperate for change.
People in their thousands told me on the doorsteps, and at the ballot box, that what we are sick of is being let down and looked down on, and we are sick of our hard work making other people rich.
In what appeared to be a swipe at her Reform rival, she added:
I can’t and won’t accept this victory tonight, without calling out politicians and divisive figures who constantly scapegoat and blame our communities for all the problems in society. My Muslim friends and neighbours are just like me – human.
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Hannah Spencer says in her victory speech that she is no different to anyone in her constituency – “I work hard, that is what we do”.
She says working hard used to get you somewhere but doesn’t now.
Instead of working for a nice life, we’re working to line the pockets of billionaires. We are being bled dry. And I don’t think i’is extreme or radical to think working hard should get you a nice life … I think that absolutely everybody should get a nice life.
And clearly I’m not the only person who thinks that. Because I’ve made clear my position and my commitment to working-class communities – the community that I am from.
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Tories claim result shows 'Starmer has killed Labour party'
Responding to the result, a Conservative spokesperson said:
Keir Starmer has killed the Labour party. In losing one of Labour’s safest seats, in a constituency that has returned Labour MPs for almost a century, Starmer has shown he no longer commands the support of Labour voters and is now a lame duck leader.
This result shows the Labour government now lacks any support in the country and has no mandate for the terrible policies it is pursuing - increasing the benefits bill, raising taxes, weakening our borders and the Armed Forces.
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Hannah Spencer is speaking on stage after her win and says she didn’t grow up wanting to be a politician – “I’m a plumber”.
Even in chaos, even under pressure, I get things done.
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The byelection candidates are on stage in Manchester and the returning officer is announcing the vote result
Green party's Hannah Spencer wins byelection
The Green party has pulled off a landmark victory in the Gorton and Denton byelection in a significant blow to Keir Starmer, Josh Halliday is reporting.
Hannah Spencer, a local plumber and Green party councillor, was elected as the party’s first MP in northern England after overturning Labour’s 13,000-vote majority.
Labour came third in the tightly contested race, while Reform UK finished second.
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Speaking to journalists a little earlier, Matt Goodwin said: “I don’t think the progressives beat us, I think the progressives were told how to vote.”
He said it was “a coalition of Islamists and woke progressives that came together to dominate the constituency”.
The byelection candidates look to be gathering around the stage at the Manchester convention centre ahead of the result.
The Green party candidate, Hannah Spencer, has arrived at the counting centre in Manchester.
More of the byelection’s 11 candidates have arrived at the Manchester Central venue as a result nears. Green candidate Hannah Spencer appears still to come. It’s 4.09am.
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Labour candidate Angeliki Stogia has arrived at the count, escorted by Lucy Powell, the deputy leader of the party.
They stood, along with other glum-looking Labour activists, arms folded, in one corner of the room, expecting to be defeated, PA Media is reporting.
Masses of press stood at the other end of the room awaiting the arrival of the Green Party candidate, Hannah Spencer, and Reform UK’s Matt Goodwin.
The result of the election is expected in the next 30 minutes.
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The byelection candidates have been arriving at the Manchester central convention complex and it’s been reported that they have been asked to meet with the returning officer in an announcement a short while ago, suggesting a result is near.
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Reform activists are “hearing Matt Goodwin has all but conceded defeat to the Greens”, the UK poll aggregator Britain Elects has posted on X.
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The Green party has predicted a “seismic moment” in UK politics, with a party source telling the Press Association:
Things are feeling positive. Not wanting to get ahead of ourselves, but everything that we thought that was going to be happening looks like it’s happening … Whatever happens, I think it’s fair to say that Greens are here to stay now as a progressive voice in British politics.
From day one of the byelection, we’ve said that Greens are the only party that could beat Reform. And I think tonight we’re seeing both of those things potentially coming true. I think it’s a seismic moment in British politics where Greens are showing that they’re a party that can protect the country from the threat of Reform, and that Labour’s not up to the job.”
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The Gorton and Denton byelection is the biggest electoral test yet for Keir Starmer before what are expected to be disastrous results for Labour in the May local elections.
The vote is particularly symbolic because of the threat Labour faces from Reform UK and the Green party in a once safe seat. There are big implications for Starmer’s premiership, whatever the result, but also for the wider political landscape.
Deputy political editor Jessica Elgot has this rundown on what a win could mean for each party.
1. Reform UK win
A win for Reform UK’s candidate, Matt Goodwin, would be the biggest sign yet that Nigel Farage’s poll lead represents real voter intentions rather than being merely a symbol of dissatisfaction with the government. Goodwin rarely talks about Reform’s politics or local issues and has repeatedly made the fight a referendum on Starmer’s leadership.
A victory would suggest the party is sustaining momentum. It would also put paid to the argument advanced by Labour strategists that progressives will unite to defeat Reform when they know how to vote tactically.
2. Greens win
A Green victory might be the most catastrophic result for Starmer’s leadership and would show the Greens are a serious progressive force, not a protest vote.
It would also show that Labour is not the automatic beneficiary of an anti-Reform alliance and would make MPs standing in urban seats fearful of the Green threat, which is likely to be compounded by local election results in London.A
A win would suggest Hannah Spencer’s enthusiastic campaign means they could capitalise on an increase in disillusioned progressive voters.
3. Labour win
Labour activists have been unusually confident about their prospects of holding the seat since the start of the campaign.
Labour has managed to energise its activist base, despite polling showing a broad dissatisfaction with the government. Starmer allies who want the prime minister to take a more aggressively progressive position have been happy with how Starmer has drawn dividing lines with Reform.
A senior Labour source said it was an “electoral training ground for a new approach of making values-led arguments for a diverse and tolerant society”.
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While byelections tend to see lower turnouts than general elections, 47.62% voted on Thursday, only marginally less than the 47.8% who voted in 2024. The difference of just -0.2% makes it the closest byelection turnout to a general election turnout this century.
When Labour deputy leader Lucy Powell was elected to neighbouring Manchester Central in 2012, the turnout of 18.2% was the lowest since the second world war. But in Gorton and Denton the tightly fought race, and the presence of Reform, as well as strong on-the-ground operations from all three parties, saw this byelection buck the trend.
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Powell appears to concede Labour defeat
Labour’s deputy leader, Lucy Powell, appears to have conceded defeat at the count in Manchester Central convention complex.
She said: “What’s clear is that the Greens have turned out their vote higher than they might otherwise have expected to do.
There is a big majority in this constituency that hasn’t voted for Reform and on the day the Greens have managed to win that argument that they were the best placed to do that. I’m not sure whether that would totally translate to a general election – we will have to see.
People want to see the Labour party, the Labour government, shouting more loudly about our values, about our story ... and how we’re trying to change people’s lives for the better and they want to reject the policies of Reform, which they are going to resoundingly do in this byelection result this evening.
Asked about Keir Starmer’s future, Powell said: “Keir is resolute in his job as leader of the Labour party, as our prime minister and the task he has in hand. Keir has been dealing with some very big global headwinds in recent weeks and months ... and it’s a tough job being prime minister. I know that Keir is the right person for that job and he does that job really well.
This is about politics as well - we’ve got to get our politics clearer so people know that we are on their side, we are standing up for them.
She added:
There is no leadership contest. We have a leader in Keir Starmer. What Keir himself has been saying very, very clearly ... is that we do need to show our Labour values more strongly; we do need to unite that voter coalition once again to stand up for what I think this constituency will have shown, which is the vast majority of people in this country want to reject the politics of Reform, reject their division ... and we’ve got to be the leaders of that and we will be.
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Afzal Khan, the Labour MP for the neighbouring Rusholme constituency in Manchester, appeared confident as he arrived at the byelection count, according to the Press Association.
Khan said he was encouraged by the number of people he had seen going to the polls and his party’s “ground” operation to get out the vote.
He said:
People are coming out to vote. Despite the rain, fasting and everything. I think they’re coming out … Probably a record number. I’ve never seen so many in 25 years.
Earlier today, Labour said it had 1,000 activists out in the constituency.
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An election observer group has raised concerns over people appearing to collude on voting in the Gorton and Denton byelection.
Democracy Volunteers, an organisation founded by Dr John Ault, and supported by the Conservative peer and psephologist Prof Robert Haywood, deployed four accredited election observers across the constituency.
The team attended 22 of the 45 polling stations while polls were open, spending between 30 and 45 minutes in each, working in pairs.
The organisation said its volunteers were looking at people appearing to collude on votes in breach of secret ballot rules, which it called “family voting”, as well as the impact of the requirement for voters to show ID before they were issued with a ballot paper.
Manchester city council said its staff had been trained to look for evidence of voter interference and that no concerns had been reported or raised with them while polls were open.
Democracy Volunteers said that while the enactment of the Ballot Secrecy Act in 2023 made “family voting” more clearly a breach of the secret ballot, signage to discourage the practice was only seen in 45% of the polling stations observed.
The observing team said they saw family voting in 15 of the 22 polling stations observed, reporting 32 cases in total, nine cases in one polling station alone. They observed a sample of 545 voters casting their votes, of which they said 12% either directed or were affected by family voting.
A spokesperson for the acting returning officer said:
Polling station staff are trained to look out for any evidence of undue influence on voters. No such issues have been reported today.
If Democracy Volunteers were so concerned about alleged issues they could and should have raised them with us during polling hours so that immediate action could be taken.
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Labour sources have told the Press Association: “Early signs at the count indicate the Greens have been able to turn out support in a way they wouldn’t be able to replicate at a general election.”
Prof Will Jennings, of the University of Southampton, earlier said the contest was too close to call and that in Britain’s new fragmented politics “anything can happen”. He said a Labour defeat would be “terminal” for No 10’s strategy to try to appeal to right-leaning voters, which has alienated its core progressive supporters.
“It would be a symbol of the failure of that strategy and the end point for it,” Jennings said.
The worst-case scenario for Labour is coming third behind Reform and the Greens, not least because of the decision to stop Andy Burnham from standing.
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Labour is defending a 13,413-vote majority in Gorton and Denton, where nearly 80% of voters backed a party on the left at the 2024 election.
Angeliki Stogia, a councillor, was selected as the Labour candidate after Andy Burnham was prevented from standing.
The academic turned GB News presenter Matt Goodwin – who has faced criticism for his comments on women, Muslims and British citizenship – is standing for Reform UK.
Hannah Spencer, a Trafford councillor and plumber by trade, is the Green party candidate.
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Welcome
Welcome to our continuing coverage of the crucial Gorton and Denton byelection.
Counting is now under way in what is set to be a three-way contest for the seat in south-east Manchester after one of the most unpredictable byelections in years.
The Green party leader, Zack Polanski, said before voting that his party was “neck and neck” with Reform UK to overturn Labour’s 13,000-vote majority, and that Labour would need to “search their conscience” if Reform UK won.
Keir Starmer’s party had targeted left-leaning voters in the Greater Manchester seat with claims that only Labour can see off Nigel Farage’s Reform, saying that a vote for the Greens was “in effect, a vote for Reform”.
A Labour defeat in the party’s long-time stronghold would be a major blow to Keir Starmer’s leadership.
The byelection was triggered by the resignation of Andrew Gwynne on health grounds in January. The former MP was under investigation by parliament for offensive messages he sent in a WhatsApp group of local Labour figures.
Stay with us as we bring you the latest.
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