Senior NSW government figures say local issues played a bigger role than the pandemic response in swinging votes away from it at four by-elections over the weekend, as Labor looks to pick-up an additional seat.
The results won't be finalised for weeks but it looks like Labor has retained the Sydney seat of Strathfield and won the South Coast seat of Bega from the Liberals.
Premier Dominic Perrottet says he isn't fazed by the prospect and won't be doing deals with the independents and minor party MPs despite his government being pushed further into minority.
"For the last three years we have been in a minority government situation," he told Sydney radio 2GB on Monday.
"I'm not interested in doing deals, I'm interested in working through issues and working with the crossbench, where there are legitimate areas of policy that we can work with them on we will.
"But we're certainly not going to be doing any deals - we haven't been doing that for three years," he said.
The official results will be delayed until March 11 because more than 38 per cent of voters in Bega, Monaro, Strathfield and Willoughby cast their vote before Saturday's ballots, either via post or through pre-polls.
However, Labor's candidate, obstetrician Michael Holland is predicted to claim Bega, following the departure of Liberal Andrew Constance who held the seat since 2003.
It will be the first time Labor has held the seat, which party leader Chris Minns previously said would be "almost impossible" to win.
The government has retreated from a view that the by-elections were a referendum on its response to the pandemic and the Omicron outbreak, pointing to local issues in the individual electorates.
Mr Perrottet said "many of those local communities have felt abandoned" in Bega after the devastating bushfires of 2019-20.
"I think there's a lot more work we need to do there," he said.
NSW Treasurer Matt Kean told ABC Radio National the by-elections were not "a referendum on the government".
"These were four by-elections, which had unique issues in each of the seats."
"There are a number of factors that can explain that result" in Bega, including Labor's candidate selection, Mr Kean says.
"They chose a local doctor in the middle of a health pandemic, who was incredibly popular."
However, the government will have to listen and respond effectively to "the message about how the government is travelling".
Mr Minns says the results are a wake up call to the government to admit its mistakes and signal a change of direction.
The premier did acknowledge past mistakes and vowed a change of direction when it comes to local manufacturing of transport assets on Monday, but Mr Minns says the announcement was "cynical" and he'll be "very surprised if (the premier) follows through".
Mr Kean says the threat of independent candidates was another takeaway, given Larissa Penn's strong showing in former premier Gladys Berejiklian's Willoughby seat.
Despite a swing of about 18 per cent, Liberal Tim James is still expected to retain the seat.
The Nationals' Nichole Overall is expected to retain former deputy premier John Barilaro's Monaro seat.
