For some time now, the contours of Ukraine’s war with Russia – grinding Russian advance, dogged Ukrainian defence – have felt clearly defined. Last summer Kyiv’s much anticipated counterattack on Russian positions in eastern Ukraine failed, then in October the outbreak of war in Gaza diverted yet more global attention away from the Donbas frontline.
Coupled with the possibility of a Trump victory in the forthcoming US election, it had begun to seem that the exhausted and outnumbered Ukrainian forces might get dragged into an unfavourable settlement with Russia.
