If there is a road for Russia to the 2026 World Cup, it may lie eastwards from Moscow and all the way through Asia. As a result of the invasion of Ukraine almost a year ago, much of Uefa does not want to play with the team that represents Vladimir Putin’s regime and the country was quickly kicked out of qualification for 2022.
It is unsurprising then, with three-quarters of Russia’s territory in Asia, that joining the Asian Football Confederation (AFC) is being discussed. “It’s a ridiculous idea, but many think that the president wants it to happen and so it probably will if Russia leaves Uefa,” says a high-ranking Korea Football Association official.
The AFC president, Sheikh Salman bin Ebrahim al-Khalifa, has certainly not shut the door on Russia following the example of Australia in 2006 and becoming member association number 48. “We have a good relationship with the Russian federation and with the rest of the European federations and we are always in contact with the federations on all occasions,” Salman said last week at the AFC Congress in his homeland of Bahrain. It was attended by the Fifa president, Gianni Infantino, as well as a delegation from the Russian Football Union (RFU) led by its president, Alexander Dyukov. “We want the best interests of the game as we seek to keep politics away from football.”
This member of Bahrain’s ruling family usually gets what he wants, but keeping politics and football apart is not going to happen; it rarely does in Asia. That is why Israel were expelled from the AFC in 1974 on the back of a Kuwaiti motion after some countries refused to play the 1964 Asian champions (a triumph almost airbrushed from AFC history).
There is nothing official yet because Russia have not left Uefa (and there is no procedure in place given that no country has jumped ship before). The RFU had set a decision deadline of 30 December because, with Asia starting qualification for 2026 in October, there is not much time left.
“Delaying the decision by a few days means that the national teams could lose four years,” Dyukov was quoted as saying. “We don’t see the light at the end of the tunnel. Also, it must be said, unfortunately we are also growing apart from Europe ideologically,”
Despite such sentiments, the body decided to stay in Uefa and explore legal ways to compete. There is no great enthusiasm in Russian football circles to swap the Uefa Champions League for the Asian version, a low-key tournament that struggled to engage much of the continent even before it was ravaged by the pandemic. The winners receive just over £3m in prize money, not much more than the €2.8m European teams bank for one group game victory.
“We need to take into account the enormous difference in the financial component,” said the CSKA Moscow president, Yevgeny Giner, late last year. “We will have to start from zero. Therefore, perhaps we should wait for a return to big European football.”
World Cup qualification would be easier, but as Japan and South Korea have found it does not always give the required tests to prepare for European and South American teams.
There is concern in Asian football circles, too. For 2026, the continent’s allocation has grown from 4.5 places to 8.5. This opens up the tournament for China, Iraq, Thailand and others. Russia are strong enough to take a World Cup place, but are not regarded as strong enough to raise the standard of Asian football as a whole. After Australia’s accession, adding another huge territory to the confederation would also not be welcomed by players or coaching staff who have to travel these vast distances.
They will not be asked, though, and such football issues will not be the prime determinant of what happens. While countries such as South Korea, Japan and Australia would be expected to oppose any Russian arrival, their influence is not what it was. Political and financial power in Asian football has moved from east to west.
Sheikh Salman, in charge since 2013, is in full control in 2023 after being returned for a third full term unopposed last October and last week Saudi Arabia’s sports minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Turki al-Faisal, said he did not have a problem with Moscow moving in. Others in the region see benefits in helping Russia.
Central Asian countries and former Soviet Union republics such as Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan – the three teams to play Russia last year – would also be on board. There is a precedent, of sorts. In January, the Olympic Council of Asia, whose members, like those of many football federations, tend to have close links with their governments, invited Russia and Belarus to the next Asian Games.
Russia may still harbour hopes of staying in Uefa, but the pull of the east is going to become stronger the longer Europe gives the cold shoulder.
