SACRAMENTO, Calif. — The California Reparations Task Force made headlines around the world this week as economic advisers to the group presented estimates that the state’s African American residents have suffered at least $800 billion in losses as a result of inequities in policing, criminal sentences, housing policies and more.
The dollar figure is nearly three times the size of California’s 2022-23 budget. Was this how much the state of California would be expected to pay in reparations?
Public policy expert Thomas Craemer of the University of Connecticut and other experts said they are still working on formulating methods to quantify just how much California descendants of U.S. slaves have been set back financially as a result of a long list of harms and atrocities the task force has identified, so the numbers are subject to change.
“This is all premature,” Craemer told the task force on Wednesday. “What we’re estimating are losses to African Americans who ... are descendants of people enslaved in the United States. We’re not necessarily suggesting that those losses are equal to the reparations.”
Dr. William Spriggs, who chairs the Department of Economics at Howard University, said he concurred with Craemer and added: “We don’t want numbers floating about as we continue our deliberations. ... I think it’s improper to pre-judge what the precise number we may recommend may be. We’re only giving you our expert advice on these specific harms. The task force has full latitude to ignore it, to add to it or to take into consideration ... other dimensions.”
Assemblyman Reginald Jones-Sawyer, a Los Angeles Democrat who sits on the Reparations Task Force, said that ultimately the decisions on whether to pay reparations or how much will be up to the Legislature and governor. The role of the task force, he said, is to name the harms and atrocities, to establish methods to quantify losses and to provide guidance on who should receive reparations.
“Numbers could change as a result of policy discussions,” Jones-Sawyer said. “What is equally important, however, is having the California Reparations Task Force’s efforts in producing a high-level thorough report become a blueprint for the country. This could assist in establishing a national effort to atone for our original sin of slavery.”
While the $800 billion in losses is grabbing attention, Craemer told task force members on Wednesday that figure is based on examining only five of the ongoing and compounding harms the task force found resulted from slavery.
“It’s not that we say say that these are the most important or that the others are unimportant,” Craemer said. “That is not the point at all. All harms should be addressed in the reparations proposal, but these are harms for which we thought we would have data.”
In terms of health harms, for example, Craemer said, his work group used well-established statistical models to determine the value of each year of life for non-Hispanic African Americans. They also researched the gap in life expectancy for that demographic group, finding that it was 7.6 years. They were able to use the two numbers to place a value on years lost for non-Hispanic African-Americans.
Craemer acknowledged that this methodology excludes Hispanic Americans who can trace their ancestry back to slavery in the United States, but it does offer a minimal guesstimate.
The economics panel also looked for losses associated associated with disproportionate incarceration and over-policing of African Americans. As part of that research, they found surveys showing that U.S. citizens of all races use and sell illegal drugs at remarkably similar rates.
So, they then tracked down how many non-Hispanic African Americans were arrested for drug felonies at rates above the representation of this group in the population. They then considered average prison terms for drug offenses, average annual wages in California, and the cost of the loss of freedom to estimate losses.
These statistical models and equations, Craemer said, help to provide a foundation for the state to use once the task force releases its complete report because whatever figure is used to quantify losses, it will inevitably face challenges.
State Sen. Steven Bradford, a Gardena Democrat who also sits on the task force, said he wants to focus less on the estimated dollar amount and more on the reparations the Legislature will realistically pass.
“You can never affix an accurate number over almost 300 years of harm to African Americans who are descendants of slaves,” Bradford said. “So it could be $1 trillion, it really doesn’t matter. It’s what we can actually get passed through legislation that’s really going to matter.”
Bradford said it will be an “uphill fight” to get the Legislature to seriously engage on reparations, as lawmakers were unable to put a constitutional amendment outlawing involuntary servitude on the California ballot last session.
Assemblywoman Lori Wilson, D-Suisun City, is pushing the measure again this year.
“Something as simple as removing that from our state constitution, where other states have, and we couldn’t even do that — California is not as liberal and progressive as a lot of people want to always make us out to be.”
The Legislature won’t take up reparations until 2024, and the task force must issue a report on its findings by July.
Bradford authored a bill this year to extend the task force through July 2024, which he says is necessary to give lawmakers all the information they need when they consider the group’s recommendations next year.
Gov. Gavin Newsom last year vetoed a similar measure from Jones-Sawyer to continue the task force.
“It’s going to be up to the Legislature and the governor to defend what’s in that report, or the Department of Justice, to defend that report,” Bradford said. “And that shouldn’t be who it falls upon — it should have the task force still able to answer those questions.”
If Wednesday’s coverage of the economists’ report is any gauge, California’s decision on reparations likely will garner widespread coverage.
News reports on the estimated $820 billion in lost income appeared on online sites from the Dayton Daily News in Ohio to The Independent in London, England.
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