Arsenal were in the Women’s Super League title race just days ago.
Now, remarkably, they face the prospect of missing out on European football altogether.
A scenario that seemed unthinkable for much of the season, but after a costly slip against Brighton, it is mathematically possible. But what would need to happen to see them miss out?
Title race over after Brighton setback
Manchester City were crowned WSL champions on Wednesday night, capitalising on Arsenal’s 1-1 draw away to Brighton in a rearranged fixture.
The game, originally postponed due to a waterlogged pitch, proved decisive. Arsenal needed victory to keep their fading title hopes alive - anything less handed City the crown. Despite still having games in hand, the damage was done as the final whistle blew in Crawley.
Why Arsenal have games in hand
As well as waterlogged pitches, Arsenal’s congested schedule has been shaped by success elsewhere. Their involvement in January’s FIFA Women's Champions Cup, which they won, as well as a deep run to the semi-finals of the Champions League, has left them playing catch-up domestically for much of this calendar year.
As a result, while City, Chelsea and Manchester United have just one league match remaining, Arsenal still have three to play.
The European qualification picture
In the WSL, the top three teams qualify for Europe, but the routes to the main competition differ:
- 1st: automatic entry to the Champions League league phase
- 2nd: one qualifying round to enter the league phase
- 3rd: two qualifying rounds to enter the league phase
For most of the campaign, four sides - City, Chelsea, Arsenal and United - have been competing for those three spots.
How could Arsenal miss out?
Team |
Played |
Goal difference |
Points |
Manchester City |
21 |
40 |
52 |
Chelsea |
21 |
23 |
46 |
Arsenal |
19 |
33 |
42 |
Manchester United |
21 |
17 |
40 |
Arsenal currently sit on 42 points and despite their games in hand, there is still a narrow path that could see them fall out of the top three.
Manchester United can reach a maximum of 43 points if they beat Chelsea on the final day.
Arsenal would miss out if:
- Manchester United beat Chelsea and move to 43 points
- Arsenal lose all three of their remaining matches and stay on 42 points.
- In that scenario, Arsenal would drop out of the top three - and miss European qualification entirely.
Reality check
It is an unlikely scenario - while the Brighton draw ended Arsenal's nine-game winning streak in the league, they remain on a 14-game unbeaten streak in the WSL. They have not lost in the league since a 3-2 defeat to Manchester City in October.
Arsenal’s remaining three fixtures are against Everton, Aston Villa and Liverpool. Even one draw will suffice as the Gunners have a superior goal difference.
History also leans in their favour: United have beaten Chelsea just once in 19 meetings.
Arsenal’s fate remains firmly in their own hands, and they will feel confident of securing European football.
The battle for second
Where things become tighter is in the race for second place.
Finishing second offers a significantly easier route into the Champions League league phase, avoiding an extra qualifying round.
Chelsea can finish on a maximum of 49 points with victory over United on the final day. To match that tally, Arsenal would need two wins and a draw from their remaining fixtures, a total that would likely see them finish above Chelsea on goal difference.
The picture will become a lot clearer for Arsenal after they play their two games in hand ahead of the final day of the season on 16 May.
