MIAMI — Hurricane Ian has left its mark on Florida.
Thousands of Floridians will have to start over and rebuild after the storm struck Southwest Florida as a deadly Category 4 hurricane, damaging bridges and roadways, destroying homes and upending everyday life. People in other parts of the state are also still reeling from the storm, which brought historic storm surge to the Keys and flooding rain across Central Florida.
And Ian, one of the strongest storms to ever hit the U.S., is a stark reminder that hurricane season isn’t over yet. There are still 12 other storm names on the main list for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which started on June 1 and officially ends Nov. 30.
“With two full months left in the Atlantic hurricane season, now is not time for people to let their guard down,” said Jasmine Blackwell, a spokeswoman for NOAA’s National Weather Service.
‘Not out of the woods yet’ with storm season
The National Hurricane Center says most activity in the Atlantic comes between mid-August and mid-October. And while storms are less common after September, the peak of hurricane season, “we’re not out of the woods yet,” said Alex DesRosiers, a Ph.D candidate at Colorado State University who is part of the school’s Tropical Weather & Climate Research group.
DesRosiers said conditions in the warm waters of the Atlantic basin remain favorable enough for tropical storms and hurricanes to develop, even after Ian’s trek through the Caribbean. Warm water helps fuel tropical cyclones. The Pacific’s La Niña is also decreasing vertical wind shear, which helps tear apart hurricanes as they try to form, he said.
Both NOAA and Colorado State University are calling for an above-average hurricane season this year, though their confidence in this prediction slightly dipped in August as a cooler than expected Atlantic led to a quiet period during the summer.
“The unusual period, which spanned almost the entirety of July and August, was a surprise to all in the tropical cyclone research community and is the reason why an above-normal season is far less likely now,” said DesRosiers. “The strange quiet highlights how complicated the task of predicting hurricane season before its peak is.”
NOAA, in its August update, slightly decreased its prediction for an above-normal season from 65% to 60% and said the season could see up to 20 named storms.
NOAA: Could be more storm activity ahead
In an email Tuesday, NOAA’s National Weather Service said climate conditions for an above-normal season “are still mostly in place and could contribute to more activity in the coming months.” But while an above-average season is still possible, DesRosiers said it looks more likely to stay near normal. However, this doesn’t mean you can put away your hurricane kit just yet.
“October remains a time where intense and dangerous storms are very possible,” DesRosiers said, noting that when activity in the eastern Atlantic off Africa’s coast starts to calm down, storms tend to “develop further west in hot spots like the Caribbean where a turn North does not often end in a harmless path out to sea.”
There are usually three to four named storms with one to two hurricanes, on average, in October, according to Blackwell. Hurricane Wilma, a Category 3 storm, made landfall near Everglades City in Southwest Florida on Oct. 24, 2005, causing significant damage and power outages along the southwest coast and in South Florida.
The good news is that the activity in the tropics should die down in November, and while it’s possible a storm could form after hurricane season ends, it’s fairly rare. DesRosiers said that since 2000, only nine storms have formed after Nov. 30 and none of them made a U.S. landfall.
How many storms and hurricanes have formed so far?
So far, we’ve seen nine named storms form in the Atlantic this season. Four strengthened into hurricanes and two — Fiona and Ian — became major storms, eventually reaching Cat 4 status. The most recent was Ian, which was the first hurricane to make a Florida landfall since Hurricane Michael, a Cat 5 storm, devastated the Panhandle in 2018.
While Ian marked the end to a storm-filled September, October is already off to a busy start, with the National Hurricane Center tracking two systems in the Atlantic basin that could see some development this week.
The “Accumulated Cyclone Energy or ACE — the scorecard we use to gauge hurricane season activity — is only a few ticks from its October 3rd average, but we know not to let our guards down in October,” wrote Michael Lowry, Local10’s hurricane specialist, in an online post. “October surprises are a staple of hurricane season.”
Cat 3 Hurricane Wilma in 2005 and Cat 5 Hurricane Michael in 2018 were October storms.
“It only takes one hurricane to make it an active season for you and October is no stranger to strong storms,” DesRosiers noted. “The best thing for people to do now is review their disaster plan or get one in place before the next storm threatens.”
