Curtin is the type of safe seat that doesn’t normally see or hear a lot from politicians.
“I’ve been here for 17 years, I’ve never met one,” says a local men’s hairstylist, Peter Alan. “I find it a bit weird that, as a business owner, I’ve never seen a politician.”
Liberal or conservative since its creation in 1949, the blue-ribbon seat in Perth’s affluent western suburbs takes in the inner-suburban and beachside areas between the Swan River and the Indian Ocean. The former foreign affairs minister Julie Bishop was the local member here for 11 years.
Tom, a retired geologist stopping to talk at Sculpture by the Sea, cites the fact that Cottesloe, within the boundaries of Curtin, was one of just two state seats to return a Liberal in Mark McGowan’s landslide 2021 election.
“We only see [politicians] at election time, and only in the letterbox,” Tom says.
But things are a little different this time. “The Liberal party has sent us three lots of stuff, usually we don’t hear from them at all until the week before the election,” says Tom’s wife, Marie. “We’ve had more [contact] this year than ever before.”
There is a good reason for that.
The Liberal MP who succeeded Bishop, Celia Hammond, holds Curtin with a margin of 13.9%. But she faces a challenge from the independent Kate Chaney, one of a crop of mostly inner-city independents backed by Climate 200 who are running on a platform of greater action on climate change and integrity in politics.
Chaney brings a cohort of a dozen volunteers with her to Cottesloe beach, projecting the image of a people-powered campaign as Sculpture by the Sea officials hover nervously, warning against turning the event into a political sideshow.
The candidate tells Guardian Australia she’s running on the “huge economic opportunities arising out of decarbonisation” as Western Australia could become “a renewable energy force”.
According to Chaney, Curtin voters are less focused on “hyper-local” issues and more on “systemic change on macro issues”, such as climate and integrity.
In short, they are post-material – and can well afford to be, in an electorate dominated by professionals and managers, who together make up more than half of employed people. In Curtin, the median household income is $2,052 a week, well above the Australian average of $1,438.
Voters say Curtin felt well-served by Bishop.
At the Floreat Forum shopping centre near Hammond’s electorate office, Jennifer Stacey says it “seemed to mean a lot, when Julie Bishop was there”.
“People would say, ‘Oh, we’ve got someone sitting in cabinet’ – now I’m not really sure what that person [Hammond] is doing, what sort of influence they have.”
Stacey is a progressive voter who says she votes “out of protest against the Liberals” because they seem to take the seat for granted – but she hasn’t heard of Chaney, whose campaign did not kick off until late January.
“I think we would need to be aware of them now, it’s a bit concerning – it’s a bit late in the race to not be,” Stacey says.
But others have heard about the alternative. At a cafe in Subiaco, Andrew, a resident of the suburb for 40 years, is poring over an article in the West Australian about the local contest. He says the Liberals seem “a bit concerned about this new lady” as Chaney appears to be “nipping away” at their large margin.
“She’s got so many of the billboards around the electorate already – she’s got an active group to assist her.”
Andrew says he is from a farming community originally, noting that farmers are “critically aware” of climate change.
He says Curtin could go the same way as Warringah, where Zali Steggall “took out a Liberal” – the former prime minister Tony Abbott.
“The Liberal government is seen to be dragging their feet a bit on [climate change]. Particularly before they went to Glasgow – they had to be dragged kicking and screaming to net zero by 2050.”
“I don’t think Hammond has done a great deal,” Andrew says. “She came from a Catholic university, which were quite anti-women’s rights – that doesn’t gel with me. She hasn’t had a high profile.”
Marie, a high school teacher, says she is “disappointed by some of [Hammond’s] voting patterns”.
“I’m not happy with their policies on refugees, and some of the religious legislation I didn’t approve of at all,” she says.
Hammond pushes back against the characterisation of being a conservative in a moderate Liberal area, saying “assumptions are made” and a reputation can “take on a life of its own and becomes an accepted truth, even if it’s not”.
The 53-year-old says her reported views – which include downplaying humanity’s contribution to the climate crisis and concerns about premarital sex and militant feminism – have changed.
“That’s what growth and learning and compassion and being with people is all about,” she says.
“But I’m still fundamentally the same person, and I don’t actually label myself anything. So when it was put to me that I was conservative as opposed to moderate, my response is I’m a Liberal.”
Hammond says it is “well known that I was part of a group of Liberal MPs who advocated strongly for the commitment to a net zero by 2050 and with a detailed plan”.
She says before she was a politician, negative campaigning didn’t speak to her, so she wants a positive campaign about what she can deliver – but she will “call out and contest” ideas with the other candidates.
Both campaigns are drawing a sharp contrast where they need to. The Liberals have targeted Chaney for her one-time membership of the Labor party, which Chaney explains she joined “briefly” before leaving, dismayed by “tribalism”.
Chaney criticises Hammond for having “spoken recently” about the need for more action on climate change and a stronger integrity commission: “The reality is we’ve seen nothing on those issues from the last three years.”
The independent refuses to say who she would support in the event of a hung parliament, only that supporting the Coalition is a “possible outcome” if it improves its climate policies, and she will decide based on who has a “credible” offering.
Voters seem to credit her family’s Liberal pedigree. “I’m sure she’s got strong Liberal values – I don’t think that will worry people,” Andrew says.
Others are attracted because she represents change.
Edward Brannan, who lives at City Beach, a little further up the coast from Cottesloe, says he feels despair at the two-party system: “It’s just not getting things done – it’s not addressing the issues, and I can’t see that changing.”
Brannan, who subscribes to Climate 200’s communications, says he is voting on climate, accountability in government and women’s rights.
“It’s appalling to have a federal government which is not accountable for its actions, and there’s nobody like Icac overseeing it.
“That’s been avoided for the whole parliamentary session. What they put forward was rubbish.”
Although some frustrated progressive voters are glad to have an alternative, many here are rusted-on Liberals.
Kate Bailey, who stops to speak in the street near the upmarket fashion shops of the Claremont Quarter, describes herself as a “pretty solid voter” – not a swinging one. She thinks Scott Morrison is “fantastic”.
“[Morrison takes] quite a level-headed approach to the issues, particularly Covid. He doesn’t seem to be one of the name-calling politicians that you see, particularly going on on the other side of the fence.”
“I think he’s done a pretty good job managing the country over the last two or three years.”
Many are still undecided. Jane and Laura, from Claremont, are weighing the choice.
Jane leans Liberal, describing Hammond as a good politician, who “works very hard” and is “underestimated”.
“I feel sorry for Scott Morrison in one way, because it’s been a terrible time,” she says, although she concedes the prime minister has been “MIA [missing in action] more often than he should”.
But Laura – despite agreeing that Hammond did a good job connecting small businesses to federal support – is considering the alternative.
“I’d like to see more on the global warming and climate side of things,” she says. “I think there is a lot of silence there – I don’t feel comfortable with that at the moment.
Laura feels Morrison has “missed the ball on so many major crises over the last three years” and is disappointed in his leadership – although she is “not really a fan of Anthony Albanese either”.
Despite differing views about Morrison’s performance, many voters in Curtin are looking for the same things in terms of policy – the question is how to get it.
For Liberal-leaning voters the choice is one of revolution or evolution: whether a voice outside the tent can help alter the course on climate; or whether an MP in government who says her views have changed trumps the uncertainty of a newcomer.
