The cost of living crisis may "exacerbate waves of winter viruses" in Wales, the Welsh Government's scientific advisers have warned. They claim that illnesses such as Covid-19, flu, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) could become more prevalent due to people "crowding into one room to stay warm and save on energy use".
The report states that this winter could see higher levels of typical winter viruses than the previous two years when restrictions were put in place to combat the spread of Covid-19. It adds that cases of flu and RSV are already being detected in parts of Wales which is weeks earlier than normal.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that just over 2% of the Welsh population, or one in 50 people, is currently living with Covid-19. In the government's Technical Advisory Cell (TAC) report, the 'most likely' scenario for the virus this winter – based on research from the UK Government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) – would see hospital admissions peak at around 100 per day at the start of December before tailing off into January.
Read more: Wales warned to brace for 'one or more' waves of Covid this winter
In its 'reasonable worst-case scenario' planning, which is based on the Omicron variant last winter, hospital admissions could reach as high as 250 cases a day in Wales which would see pressure on the Welsh NHS increase. The report states: "SARS-CoV-2 continues to evolve and the most recent waves (three Omicron in the past eight months) each with growth advantage over the one before.
"We are still in a pandemic and Covid-19 will not go away unless there is a neutralising vaccine that is deployed globally. Understanding the impact of successive waves of SARS-CoV-2is important as we, as a society, continue to accrue harm such as long Covid."
The TAC report states that Wales could see a moderate flu season based on what happened in Australia during their own winter period. However that hasn't stopped Public Health Wales (PHW) from warning that flu could still be a "major public health issue" and has urged eligible people to get their free jab on the NHS.
"The implications for the forthcoming UK winter are encouraging in that it is unlikely that the UK will experience a severe flu season, more likely it will experience a 'normal' or 'average' flu season which will not be compounded significantly by a severe-impact Covid-19 wave," the report adds.
"However the vaccine 'match' required is difficult to predict, especially early in the global season as the virus may change later in the Southern Hemisphere season. That change may not be captured in time for the UK vaccine production, meaning that a different clade is in circulation and there is a vaccine mismatch."
When it comes to RSV, a virus that typically infects children in the first two years of life and can cause the nasty chest condition bronchiolitis, the TAC scientists said there were "very few cases" detected in 2020-21 and a "large rebound" did not occur in 2021-22. "This suggests, although further research is required, that the immunity debt may still exist, or may have even grown, as there is now another year of children who did not get exposed to RSV at the usual levels, so there is again potential for hospitals to face increased pressures from RSV cases," the report states.
"So far in 2022, RSV cases have been rising rapidly again, with the season showing signs of having started already, around 15 weeks early. This is likely in part due to increased levels of testing being carried out."
In conclusion the report states: "It is still possible we may see a relatively quiet winter in terms of pressures due to influenza, Covid and other respiratory viruses – however ‘hope’ is not a good planning strategy."
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