New analysis suggests women without degrees “appear to be catching up with” a trend among their graduate peers in delaying motherhood.
The Resolution Foundation considered Office for National Statistics (ONS), Government and other survey data to find reasons behind the UK’s falling birth rate.
The think tank said its analysis shows the “recent baby bust was caused by a recent uptick in the rates of childlessness among young non-graduate women”, as opposed to those who graduate and might delay or altogether avoid parenthood while prioritising their careers.
It said the falling birth rates appear to be driven partly by financial struggles faced by young people rather than a shift in people’s desires away from parenthood.
ONS data published last August showed the fertility rate for England and Wales had fallen for the third year in a row to reach a new record low.
The total fertility rate across both nations, defined as the average number of live children women would expect to have across their childbearing life, stood at 1.41 in 2024.
This was down from 1.42 in 2023 and is the lowest since comparable data began in 1938.
The foundation’s latest paper, entitled Bye Bye Baby, noted that more young people nowadays either remain living with their parents or in costly private rented accommodation, which could be contributing to the declining birth rate.
It said more affordable housing and opportunities for young people to get on the property ladder should be considered by policymakers when it comes to making having children more achievable for those who want it.
It said financial constraints “appear to be shaping intentions, not just behaviour” with around twice the proportion of childless 32-year-olds in England in the lowest income quarter saying they intend to remain permanently childless, compared to those in the highest income quarter.
Finances were given as a reason for not yet having children by around three in 10 women and a quarter of men, the paper said.
The report said: “Yes, graduate women still tend to have children later in life than others.
“But women without degrees appear to be catching up with the trend for delaying motherhood.”
It said non-graduate women aged 25-29 have seen “the most dramatic recent rise in the proportion who are childless: from a third (33%) in 2011 to over half (54%) in 2023” and that “understanding the experience of this group is therefore central to explaining the recent decline in birth rates”.
The paper stated: “Whether recent trends ultimately prove to be a delay or a permanent decline remains uncertain, but the Government should carefully consider the consequences.
“That means making tax, spending and legislative choices that adapt fairly to the needs of a changing population.”
Charlie McCurdy, senior economist at the Resolution Foundation, said: “The latest twist in the UK’s falling birth rate story is that non-graduate women in their mid-to-late 20s have seen a dramatic rise in the proportion who are childless.
“Deciding whether to have children is a deeply personal choice, but it’s clear that financial constraints are at play too.
“The sharp rise in young people living with parents or living in high-cost, low-stability, rented accommodation poses significant barriers to starting a family.
“Policy makers should look to address the financial barriers that are hindering young peoples’ ability to start a family – such as increasing housing affordability and opportunities to get on the housing ladder – to make parenthood more achievable for those who want it.”
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