ANALYSIS — Last fall, there were already warning signs that Texas Sen. John Cornyn was at serious risk of losing his upcoming Republican primary, even though he had narrowed an initial polling gap with state Attorney General Ken Paxton.
And four months and millions of dollars in ads later, Cornyn might be in worse shape with just days to go until the March 3 primary.
On the surface, Cornyn remains in the hunt. A mid-January Emerson College survey showed Paxton at 27 percent, Cornyn at 26 percent and Houston-area Rep. Wesley Hunt at 16 percent. The latest RealClearPolitics average found a similar state of the race: Paxton 30 percent, Cornyn 28 percent, Hunt 20 percent.
Since no one is likely to receive a majority of the March 3 vote, Cornyn just needs to finish in the top two to give himself more time to finish on top in a May 26 runoff. But that task looks much easier on paper than in reality. And for an incumbent like Cornyn, it’s less about whether he’s ahead or behind and more about his capacity to grow, electorally.
As I wrote in October, history shows that it is extremely difficult for longtime incumbents to expand their support significantly in a runoff election. For example, in 2014, Mississippi Sen. Thad Cochran only improved 2 points from his Republican primary to the runoff, but that was enough to win. Cornyn won’t be anywhere close to 50 percent in March.
After more than 35 years in elected office, it appears Texas Republicans have made up their minds about Cornyn — and it doesn’t look like it will be enough in his quest for a fifth Senate term. At best, the senator’s support has been static, but it may have even slipped in recent months.
With more than 30 public polls going back to May, there’s no shortage of data on the race. In eight polls from June through September 2025 testing the three-way primary, Cornyn averaged 31 percent of the vote. In 21 polls from October through the beginning of February, he averaged 28 percent.
A handful of individual surveys may have looked like good news for the senator, but those findings could have been a mirage.
Texans for a Conservative Majority, a pro-Cornyn outside group, released a mid-November survey that showed the senator ahead of Paxton by 2 points after being down by 2 points in the prior month’s poll. But Cornyn’s support had remained static. It was 34 percent in the October poll and 35 percent in November. An early December co/efficient survey showed Cornyn up a point on Paxton, but the senator was still at 28 percent, followed by the attorney general at 27 percent and Hunt at 19 percent. At some point, Cornyn is going to have to top 50 percent, but he has a long way to go and not a lot of time to do it.
His current standing isn’t from a lack of effort or resources. Cornyn has seen nearly $60 million in ad support, according to AdImpact. That’s far more than pro-Paxton ads ($2.3 million) or spots for Hunt ($10.8 million). Cornyn hasn’t been disproportionately attacked either. Some $3.6 million has been spent on ads aired or reserved against the senator compared with $3.9 million against Hunt, AdImpact found. And it’s unclear whether spending more money before or after March 3 will suddenly and dramatically improve Cornyn’s standing.
The senator and his allies are trying to draw in President Donald Trump, the potential difference-maker into the race, specifically with apocalyptic language about looming Democratic majorities in Congress.
On Tuesday, Cornyn warned that Republicans would suffer an “Election Day massacre” if Paxton wins the primary. “Republicans up and down the ticket will pay the price. … We risk losing the Senate seat, losing the majority in the House of Representatives, and it will take a toll on everybody on the ballot,” he said at a campaign stop.
But even that scenario isn’t completely borne out by the numbers. The National Republican Senatorial Committee, which is firmly behind Cornyn, released part of an internal survey from earlier this month that showed the senator ahead of Democratic state Rep. James Talarico by 3 points while Paxton trailed Talarico by 3 points. That’s not a large difference. Both men performed better against Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett, but the difference wasn’t dramatic either. Cornyn was up 7 points, while Paxton was ahead by 1.
Cornyn’s warnings about Republicans losing House seats in Texas could also be exaggerated. As Jacob Rubashkin of Inside Elections pointed out, it would take a lot to break Republicans’ new gerrymander of the state. And should the GOP end up underperforming further down the ballot, that would probably have more to do with Trump’s mediocre political standing. Democrats dramatically overperformed in a recent state Senate special election in Tarrant County, and Paxton was nowhere near the ballot.
It’s possible that Cornyn ends up pulling this off. Trump, who on Monday reiterated his neutrality in the primary, could put his full weight behind the senator. Paxton could implode. But at the present moment, most data points suggest Cornyn is an underdog in next month’s primary.
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