Copper spent two years as the least interesting story in the commodity complex. Gold took the headlines. Semiconductors took the capital. Copper just kept grinding higher, until COMEX futures printed a record above $6.70 a pound in August. Prices have eased back since as rising oil and bond yields pressured the demand outlook, but the trend has not broken.
The record is not the interesting part. The arithmetic underneath it is. Demand from data centers, grid replacement, electric vehicles and defense budgets is compounding at the same moment mine supply is capped by falling ore grades and permitting timelines measured in decades. That is not a problem price solves quickly, and it lands directly on the income statements of the companies pulling copper out of the ground.
