Cop28: UN climate summit ends with divisive deal
The governments of the world have agreed on a declaration at the Cop28 climate summit that has been both hailed as historic and dismissed as weak. Here are the big takeaways from today:
Countries agreed on a text that encourages countries to move away from fossil fuels and quickly ramp up renewable energy
Island states whose homes are being washed away by rising sea levels said the text was an improvement but contains a “litany of loopholes”
Scientists said the document did not go far enough for world leaders to honour the promise they made to keep the planet from heating 1.5C above pre-industrial temperatures by the end of the century
Poorer countries said they were frustrated by the lack of a concrete plan to adapt to climate change and money to do so
Thank you for following the coverage.
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Climate scientist Dr Friederike Otto, at Imperial College London, and co-founder of the World Weather Attribution group, has reacted strongly to the Cop28 deal:
“The lukewarm agreement reached at Cop28 will cost every country, no matter how rich, no matter how poor. Everyone loses. It’s hailed as a compromise, but we need to be very clear what has been compromised. The short-term financial interests of a few have again won over the health, lives and livelihoods of most people living on this planet.
“With every vague verb, every empty promise in the final text, millions more people will enter the frontline of climate change and many will die. At 1.2C of warming, we’re already seeing devastating climate impacts that disrupt economies, destroy livelihoods and claim lives.
“Climate change is driving instability. Nearly every country wants stability, but until fossil fuels are phased out, the world will continue to become a more dangerous, more expensive and more uncertain place to live.”
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Cop28 president hails 'true victory for those who are sincere in addressing climate change'
Ending the meeting with the bang of a gavel, Cop president Sultan Al Jaber has described the agreement as a “true victory” of unity, solidarity and collaboration. He thanked the people who had made it happen and said: “This is a true victory for those who are sincere and genuine in helping address this global climate challenge. This is a true victory for those who are pragmatic, results-oriented and led by the science.”
His comments clash with reactions from scientists who have praised parts of the UAE consensus but criticised its vague, weak and caveated language on fossil fuels, which are the main cause of climate change.
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Conservation groups have hailed the inclusion of a 2030 global deforestation goal in the UAE Consensus, along with positive wording on the role played by indigenous communities.
There was also hope that this deal could help to intermesh nature and climate more closely, rather than treating them as two separate subjects which has often been the case until now.
But many also expressed concerns that weak language on fossil fuel emissions would fail to control the global heating that is eroding forest resilience to drought, fire and disease.
The UAE Consensus “emphasises the importance of conserving, protecting and restoring nature and ecosystems towards achieving the Paris agreement temperature goal, including through enhanced efforts towards halting and reversing deforestation and forest degradation by 2030, and other terrestrial and marine ecosystems acting as sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases and by conserving biodiversity, while ensuring social and environmental safeguards, in line with the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.”
To achieve this target, it “notes the need for enhanced support and investment, including through financial resources, technology transfer and capacity-building” and “encourages” implementation based on “the best available science as well as Indigenous Peoples’ knowledge and local knowledge systems”.
Jennifer Morgan, the former executive director of Greenpeace who is now heading the German climate delegation, lauded the “great language” on nature and forests.
Claudio Angelo of Brazil’s Climate Observatory said it was the first time the 2030 deforestation goal has been included in a United Nations agreement, thereby upgrading the voluntary language of the Glasgow declaration on forests by 130 countries into “a binding-ish commitment among 200 countries”. Angelo was also encouraged by the overt link with last year’s Kunming-Montréal framework: “This has potential because there are big bucks for biodiversity that may be used now for climate protection and vice versa. The two conventions needed to mingle and now there is a peg for that.”
Jennifer Skene, natural climate solutions policy manager, at Natural Resources Defense Council, was also positive.
“The text’s emphasis on halting and reversing forest degradation, alongside deforestation, by 2030 leaves no ambiguity about the urgency of global, multi-sectoral action to protect high-integrity forests in order to meet the goals of the Paris agreement. The international community is stripping away the veil over industrial logging in northern forests and its significant emissions, creating a pathway for action on forest protection defined by equity and accountability,” she said.
Tørris Jaeger, director of Rainforest Foundation Norway, was more cautious, noting the UAE consensus was a mixed bag. “The agreement gives a glimmer of hope with ambition to halt deforestation, but the slow progress on fossil fuel is a threat to the rainforest,” he said.
Countries @COP28_UAE commit to triple renewable energy and doubling of energy efficiency by 2030 with a hope that this will replace oil, coal, and gas. COP28 also emphasizes the importance of increased efforts to halting deforestation by 2030.
— Rainforest Foundation Norway (RFN) (@RainforestNORW) December 13, 2023
Our take on the deal👇 pic.twitter.com/nKRjC4zHMe
Recognition of the role of indigenous communities in protecting forests and fighting climate change was celebrated by Sonia Guajajara, the first Indigenous Peoples minister of Brazil, who said Cop28 had set a new paradigm in this regard. “It was the first time that we had Indigenous people participating directly in a dialogue with Brazilian negotiators,” she noted on social media, reminding followers: “We are only 5% of the world’s population, but 82% of the world’s protected biodiversity is within indigenous territories.”
Guajajara looked forward to Cop30, which will be held in the Amazonian city of Belém in 2025. “President Lula has said a lot that it is time for the Amazon to speak to the world. So, we are optimistic that this Cop will be decisive,” she said.
The negotiators had to overcome challenges from Bolivia, which has recently been one of the fastest deforesting nations on Earth as the government endorses the expansion of soy, cattle, logging and mining. In closed door sessions, the country’s representative said his country and others in the developing bloc needed more economic support. “We cannot support goals to end deforestation in all countries since this reflects different circumstances,” he said. “Why should we reach zero deforestation without any finance at all? Some got billions and did not deliver.”
During the conference, there were doubts too about the role of carbon markets in forest protection and reforestation. Without transparency and clear guidelines, it was feared that polluters could claims credits of dubious value. This debate is expected to linger on in future conferences.
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A delegate representing Indigenous peoples criticised the number of fossil fuel lobbyists, which outnumbered the number of Indigenous representatives, and stressed the role of Indigenous people as stewards of nature. “Our peoples have been sounding the alarm and science has finally caught up with what Indigenous peoples have been saying for decades. You must listen.”
Carbon market negotiations have collapsed at Cop28 following fraught discussions over the past two weeks, but some observers say no deal is better than an outcome that may undermine the Paris agreement.
Governments could not reach agreements on the country to country trading regimes or rules for the overall carbon market in Article 6 of the Paris agreement, meaning that all of these negotiations have been pushed into next year.
Isa Mulder, a policy expert at Carbon Market Watch, said: “Under these conditions, ‘no outcome’ is better than a bad decision. Given the repeated failures of the voluntary carbon market, we desperately need Article 6.4 to raise the bar. But this will have to wait for another year. Hopefully, Cop29 can deliver the goods.”
Axel Michaelowa, a carbon markets expert at the University of Zurich, said: “It is a disaster. It was due to the presidency not putting sufficient emphasis on the carbon markets stream. They wanted to do the big stuff they had just agreed in the Global Stocktake. They didn’t deal sufficiently with the EU and parties that were critical of the deal. It was much too towards Saudi Arabia, China and India who want to keep carbon markets in low quality. The EU at this point was unable to accept that. The US was just not listening to the players that want to make sure that everything in the world was brought into carbon markets.
“The Paris rules could become a benchmark for international quality in the carbon markets but if we keep kicking the can down the road every year, sometime nobody will believe in it any more. That means the carbon cowboys have another year to ride through the prairie,” he said.
Kevin Conrad, executive director of Coalition for Rainforest Nations, echoed concerns about the US position: “Carbon markets need governance, standards, transparency and atmospheric integrity to deliver, but the US wants the wild west where anything goes!”
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Scientist: 'Cop28 is the fossil fuel industry’s dream outcome because it looks like progress but it isn’t'
There was uproar in the first week of Cop28 when the Guardian revealed comments from Cop president Sultan Al Jaber saying there was “no science” that said a fossil fuel phase out was needed to keep global heating below 1.5C. Al Jaber, also CEO of the UAE’s state oil company, claimed his comments were misinterpreted.
Here’s what scientists are saying about the 198-nation deal brokered by Al Jaber, which calls for a “transition away” from fossil fuels.
Prof Johan Rockström, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany:
“No, the Cop28 agreement will not enable the world to hold the 1.5C limit, but yes, the result is a pivotal land-mark. This agreement delivers on making it clear to all financial institutions, businesses and societies that we are now finally – eight years behind the Paris schedule – at the true ‘beginning of the end’ of the fossil-fuel driven world economy. Yet the fossil-fuel statement remains too vague, with no hard and accountable boundaries for 2030, 2040 and 2050.”
Prof Mike Berners-Lee, Lancaster University said:
“Cop28 is the fossil fuel industry’s dream outcome, because it looks like progress, but it isn’t.”
Dr Ella Gilbert, at British Antarctic Survey:
“The Cop28 agreement finally puts into words what scientists have been saying for decades – that continued fossil fuel use must be eliminated to avoid the worst consequences of climate change. [The record hot year of] 2023 has given us a taste of what is to come and demonstrates how urgently we must act. While this eleventh-hour intervention is welcome, it will not be strong enough to avoid the worst impacts, including ice loss from the polar regions and devastating extreme events.”
Prof Martin Siegert, University of Exeter, UK:
“The science is perfectly clear. Cop28, by not making a clear declaration to STOP fossil fuel burning is a tragedy for the planet and our future. The world is heating faster and more powerfully than the COP response to deal with it.”
Dr Emma Lawrance, Imperial College London, UK said:
“The Cop negotiations are ultimately negotiating human health and wellbeing – mental and physical. However, unless developed countries lead the way in delivering emission cuts and the fair funding structures other countries need to act, the cost of inaction will be lives, and quality of life.”
Dr Leslie Mabon, Open University, UK:
“A lot of the blame for slow-walking these climate talks and watering down the final text will rightly be placed on the major oil-producing states. However, the outcome is also a wake-up call for wealthier and historically high-emitting nations. Countries like the UK, the US and those in the European Union need to walk the walk on climate change if they want to be seen as credible climate leaders globally. This means showing leadership by reducing our own production of and demand for fossil fuels.”
Prof Daniela Schmidt, University of Bristol:
“The time for talking is over. Delaying change further is indefensible. Pretending that reducing emissions by 2050 is enough ignores the dangerous, life-threatening consequences of our anthropogenic heating of the planet. There are still trillions in subsidies given every year to fossil fuel industries who make money for their shareholders ignoring the consequences. Why is that money not redirected to help communities adapt and change the way we live?”
Prof Gulcin Ozkan, King’s College London,UK:
“The final declaration falls short on many levels. First, it is vague with no timeframe, hence the process can potentially take a very long time. Second, there is no clear commitment regarding financial support to the less developed countries in their transition. Finally, and surprisingly, there is no mention of a net zero target for methane emissions.”
Dr Elena Cantarello, Bournemouth University, UK:
“It is hugely disappointing to see how a very small number of countries have been able to put short term national interests ahead of the future of people and nature, however, it was hugely positive to see the food system declaration, which for the first time will require countries to consider food in their national determined contributions.”
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A delegate from the Children and Youth observers said the agreement had “written her obituary at the age of 16”. In a fiery joint speech, the two delegates criticised leaders for applauding the Global Stocktake despite its flaws. They also criticised the countries in the room for funding war while failing to spend enough on stopping climate change. “Not in our name. For shame.”
Al Jaber immediately responded to their critique that the process had not been inclusive. “You are central to the prosperity of this world. That is why we have worked hard ensuring the inclusivity of everyone… and will continue to work very hard to ensure you have an effective role in this process.”
An underrated point from my colleague Damian Carrington here.
#COP28 My take: The #ClimateCrisis crisis is driven by fossil fuels, which the industry is phasing *UP*
— Damian Carrington (@dpcarrington) December 13, 2023
Is "transition away" a strong enough signal to change that anytime soon? Not in my opinion
But the citing of fossil fuels is historic. It's a tragedy it has taken 30 years
The delegate from Ethiopia praised the agreement on the loss and damage fund but warned that it must remain “robust and responsive” to the needs of countries most affected by climate change.
The delegate added: “Let’s not just meet our targets. Let’s try to exceed them.”
Leading climate scientists at the University of Exeter have reacted to the agreement. Richard Betts said: “The global stocktake quotes lots of sound science highlighting the urgency of the situation we are in, and this is to be applauded. However, it’s worrying that the Dubai negotiations went ahead on the basis of a misunderstanding of how close we are now to reaching 1.5C global warming. The text gives observed warming as ‘about 1.1C’, but this is already out of date – the actual current global warming level is about 1.3C. While this is clearly not the main reason why the agreement falls short of what is needed, it may have contributed to a reduced sense of urgency.”
James Dyke said: “Cop28 needed to deliver an unambiguous statement about the rapid phase out of fossil fuels. That would represent a rupture from previous Cops and business as usual – which is what is needed now, given record-breaking global temperature and greenhouse gas emissions. Unfortunately, that did not happen. While the agreement’s call for the need to transition away from fossil fuels is welcome, it has numerous caveats and loopholes that risks rendering it meaningless when it comes to our efforts to limit warming to well below 2C. That this deal has been hailed as a landmark is more a measure of previous failures than any step change when it comes to the increasingly urgent need to rapidly stop burning coal, oil and gas.”
Mike O’Sullivan said: “Cop is meant to be the vehicle for solutions, but all it seems to do is recognise problems that the rest of the world identified years ago. It’s obvious to most people that limiting global warming meant reduced fossil fuel use, but only now do our leaders say this.
“But so what? Where are the real global plans for the energy transition, without relying on fanciful tech solutions, with adequate support for poorer nations? Where is the global leadership to take the right action, not the selfish action? Across the globe, there are plans to expand fossil production – how does this fit with the text that’s just been agreed?
“It’s clear what we need: the wealthiest in society should pay for the transition.”
Raphaëlle Haywood said: “The final report from Cop28 is disappointing, but it does not change reality: we need to phase out fossil fuels now regardless of the words on the page. The era of fossil fuels is over.”
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The UN environment chief, Inger Andersen, said: “The deal is not perfect, but one thing is clear: the world is no longer denying our harmful addiction to fossil fuels. Now we move beyond bargaining to action. This means real action on a rapid transition away from fossil fuels, especially for the G20. To have any hope of doing this in line with what the science demands of us, we must unleash far greater finance to support countries in a just, equitable and clean transition, which is especially important for developing nations that must leapfrog to low-carbon development. We have the solutions; we know what needs to be done. And action can no longer wait.”
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The delegate from Nigeria said some of the outcomes could be “suffocating” for developing countries if they are not provided help to transition, such as money and technology. “The developed countries need to be more forthcoming in providing support to developing countries like Nigeria.”
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The Guardian managed to grab a word with the UK climate minister, Graham Stuart, as he was leaving the Cop28 venue. He was on his way to the airport for a flight back to London. This was after he left Dubai yesterday to fly home for a vote on the government’s Rwanda policy, only to immediately return to the UAE.
When asked about the significance of the agreement, Stuart said it was historic.
“It’s the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era. It’s the first time we got the world – including the major oil and gas producers – to sign up to a transition away from fossil fuels. We have to turn that into reality but it’s an exciting step forward. There are two big elements that have contributed to that. One is the science, which is just so hard to argue with now. The other is the voices of the frontline states, the Pacific states in particular. They have been able to change attitudes,” he said.
When asked about the demand from the developing world that rich countries go first in the energy transition and how that tallies with the UK government expanding oil and gas licences, Stuart said:
“Expanding what? The North Sea from an oil and gas basis is declining. It would be really good if the Guardian were to reflect the facts on the ground on that, it’s expected to halve over the next decade. It’s falling even faster than demand is falling,” he said.
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The delegate from Palau praised the UAE presidency for its vision for a world without fossil fuels but also criticised “loopholes” in the text like carbon capture and the phrase “transition away” rather than “phase out”.
The delegate added: “Nevertheless, we need to set sail and course-correct quickly.”
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Madeleine Diouf Sarr, chair of the Least Developed Countries Group, which has almost 50 member states, said: “This outcome reflects the very lowest possible ambition that we could accept rather than what we know, according to the best available science, is necessary to urgently address the climate crisis.
“Limiting warming to 1.5C is a matter of survival, and international cooperation remains key to ensuring it. Alignment with 1.5C not only requires countries to urgently reduce domestic emissions but also the delivery of significant climate finance so that we can continue our leadership in going well beyond our fair share of the global effort when it comes to reducing emissions
There is recognition in this text of the trillions of dollars needed to address climate change in our countries. Yet it fails to deliver a credible response to this challenge. Next year will be critical in deciding the new climate finance goal.”
“Today’s outcome [on the the Global Goal on Adaptation] is full of eloquent language but regrettably devoid of actionable commitments.”
The delegate from Ghana criticised the text for setting a timeline on fossil fuels but staying vague on the sources of other greenhouse gases – in particular, the expectations it would create for developing countries. “I don’t think there’s fairness there.”
Ajit here taking over from my colleague Bibi – thanks for following the blog so far. There’ll be reactions and updates coming in throughout the day. If you have thoughts, reactions, comments or questions please email me on ajit.niranjan@theguardian.com.
The Indonesian delegate is celebrating the agreement but says there were hard compromises made. She wants it to be understood that different countries must take different approaches. She also laments the shortfall in the conditions around Indigenous people.
“Keeping 1.5 alive can only be done with action… We need concrete implementation. Indonesia stands ready to work with all parties on implementation.”
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The delegate for Paraguay welcomes the agreement as “auspicous” but points out that “we need to see a big increase in climate financing”.
She also worries about curbs on methane and how that will affect Paraguay’s economy which is very dependent on agriculture. She wants the contributions of developed and developing countries to be differentiated. “Developing countries can not give up the right to development - this is an inalienable human right.”
Senegal, meanwhile, has also raised concerns about climate finance, which, their delegate said, must be of key importance. “We are concerned by the latest version of the text.”
“We are fighting for our survival, and we are fighting for climate justice.”
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As the team on stage reads through the remaining business it’s becoming clear that an unusual amount of decisions and documents remain unfinished and not signed off. The Global Stocktake was the headliner of the Cop, the big number item, but there are also dozens of other work tracks which should have texts approved.
But the Carbon Brief Cop document tracker is flashing up a huge amount as red – it may not have been fully updated but it appears that a number of tracks have not yet published draft texts or those drafts have not been signed off.
Our colleague Fiona Harvey says that: There’s always a lot of business aside from the main decisions. So that’s normal. But the amount of decisions being deferred or text not final is unusual. There were a huge slew of ancillary technical things going on here and a lot of them have been basically shelved.”
She observes: “We saw this happen for years after the Paris Agreement - decisions on the rule book were put off year after year all the way to Cop26.”
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A representative for the Marshall Islands has given a very moving reaction to the agreement.
“I came from my home islands to work with you to solve the greatest challenge of our generations, to build a canoe.
“We have built a canoe with a weak and leaky hull. Yet we have to put it into the water because we have no other option. We must sail this canoe. It has a strong sail. We must be honest: there has not been inclusion, the fact that this decision was gavelled [without discussion] is unacceptable.”
“We need to phase out fossil fuels. Our job was clear, to keep 1.5C alive and to keep the world liveable as temperatures arrive. It’s a small step in the right direction. In the context of the real world, it is not enough. This year, I hope the islands are heard.
“As we sail this leaky canoe together, let’s agree to plug the leaks for the sake of all of us, especially the most vulnerable.”
Nicholas Stern, chair of the Grantham Research Institute at the London School of Economics, and the author of the influential Stern report on climate finance, has commented on the outcome of Cop28:
The results of the global stocktake show clearly that the world is badly off track in the task of realising the goals of the Paris agreement. Failure to achieve the Paris agreement would leave the world in a very dangerous state.
The agreement achieved today is historic and of real value. The decision on the global stocktake explicitly recognises, for the first time in the outcome of a United Nations climate change summit, that the world needs to transition away from all fossil fuels, and towards cleaner alternatives, particularly renewables. It is clear that this transition must be worldwide, at scale, and urgent. While the text of the decision may not be as strong as some have hoped, it is clear that this transition must be powerful and urgent to achieve net zero emissions of greenhouse gases globally by 2050.
Countries must now respond to the outcome of Cop28 through a huge increase in investment in zero-emissions and climate-resilient economic development and growth, particularly in developing countries. The text of the Global Stocktake decision rightly stresses the need to mobilise trillions of dollars in investment to accelerate cuts in greenhouse gases, strengthen adaptation and resilience, and respond to loss and damage.
The goals of the Paris agreement will not be realised without a major and rapid increase in investment, particularly in emerging market and developing countries.
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The Chilean delegate speaks next, and expresses concern about the wording on fossil fuel subsidies and transitional fuels. Several countries have said that gas should not be considered a transitional fuel from coal, but rather a methane-heavy fossil fuel that needs to be phased out entirely.
There is much work ahead regarding the global goal on adaptation, he says, and laments the inclusion of the words “where possible” in the text, which he says should not be relevant there.
He urges all delegations to include concrete responsibilities on youth in their policies.
He says Chile is concerned by situation of middle income countries’ access to climate finance. He says many of those countries have the most ambitious goals, but that their ambition and commitment are not being rewarded, and in fact are being overlooked. We need a situation where efforts are rewarded with new financial innovation and conditions to encourage the private sector, he says.
Next up is the Vatican. The pope had planned to visit the conference and deliver a speech but was kept at home with bronchitis.
The delegate says he is concerned that the hopes of future generations have not been completely met, and that there has not been a response fully in line with the science. He says a growing number of countries have committed to a science-based transition, but that all countries should follow suit.
He says the principles of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities are vitally important to make sure this process is just.
“We must also consider intergenerational justice and our responsibility to do all we can,” he says: “It is important to give hope and secure a liveable common home for our children.”
“A lot of work is still ahead of us and we have a duty towards those who are rightly demanding that we as leaders act in their name.”
He ends by quoting the pope: “What would induce anyone at this stage to hold on to power, only to be remembered for their inability to take action when they were able to do so?”
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The Cop president, Al Jaber, shared a hug with UN climate chief, Simon Stiell, earlier as the text was passed.
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We’re still getting reaction from many different sources.
Al Gore, former US vice-president:
“The decision at Cop28 to finally recognize that the climate crisis is, at its heart, a fossil fuel crisis is an important milestone. But it is also the bare minimum we need and is long overdue. The influence of petrostates is still evident in the half measures and loopholes included in the final agreement. Fossil fuel interests went all out to control the outcome, but the passionate work of millions of climate activists around the world inspired and motivated delegates from many nations to loosen the industry’s grip.Whether this is a turning point that truly marks the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era depends on the actions that come next and the mobilization of finance required to achieve them.
Omar Elmawi, Africa Movement Building Space:
“Proposing a transition away from fossil fuels may sound like a step in the right direction, a glimmer of hope amidst chaos. However, let us not underestimate the cunning tactics of fossil fuel giants and petrostates. They will cleverly disguise their products as ‘transitional’ fuels, especially in the most vulnerable corners of our world. Yet, we must recognise how far we have come. Even the once unyielding fossil fuel giants and petrostates are now witnessing the inevitable - a world that’s free of their toxic grip.”
May Boeve, executive director 350.org:
“People power has propelled us to the doorstep of history but leaders have stopped short of entering the future we need. It is frustrating that 30 years of campaigning managed to get ‘transition from fossil fuels’ in the Cop28 text, but it is surrounded by so many loopholes that it has been rendered weak and ineffectual.”
Manuel Pulgar-Vidal, at WWF and former Cop20 President:
“The Earth is down but not out, as countries agree to transition away from fossil fuels, but fall short of consensus on the full phase out of coal, oil and gas at Cop28. We are still way off course to limit global warming to 1.5C and avert the worst impacts of the climate crisis. In this critical decade, all countries must enhance the ambition and implementation of climate action.”
Ani Dasgupta, president of the World Resources Institute:
“Fossil fuels finally faced a reckoning at the UN climate negotiations after three decades of dodging the spotlight. This historic outcome marks the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era. Despite immense pressure from oil and gas interests, high ambition countries courageously stood their ground and sealed the fate of fossil fuels. Now a critical test is whether far more finance is mobilised for developing countries to help make the energy transition possible. The climate summit in Azerbaijan next year must be one for the history books, when the world finally shifts the scale of climate finance from billions to trillions.”
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The South Korean delegate is next up. She says the creation of the loss and damage fund was a big step on the first day of the summit, and welcomes the money pledged to the fund so far.
She says she appreciated the majlis gathering in which countries shared views a few days ago, and that she thinks it helped people find agreement.
The global stocktake accelerates ambition to keep 1.5C in reach, she say. She stresses the importance of “new and important technological innovation”, which will be seen by some as support for the inclusion of carbon capture and storage in agreements.
The summit will be remembered as a historic milestone, she says. “Multilateralism is alive, functioning, and even more consolidated … no matter what challenges we have in front of us, climate action to keep 1.5C in reach is clearly our agenda and our solidarity will not be weakened.”
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The UK’s minister for climate change has been talking in the hallway. He said he’d have liked to see more on coal, and also said that new licenses in North Sea are part of the transition away from fossil fuels.
The UK’s secretary for Energy security and net zero, Claire Coutinho, has tweeted that the deal is historic.
This is genuinely historic - the first time we have a global agreement to move away from fossil fuels.
— Claire Coutinho MP (@ClaireCoutinho) December 13, 2023
The UK has nearly halved emissions since 1990 - more than any major economy.
I thank our world class negotiators, @grahamstuart and @RichardHRBenyon for their determined work. https://t.co/18YZCLdXGS
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Next up is Guatemala. The representative is speaking on behalf of the Ailac group of Latin American and Caribbean countries, and says they align themselves with the position of the G77 developing countries and China bloc.
She says they welcome the initiatives taken to reach the milestone of operationalising the loss and damage fund on the first day of the conference, and the pledges that have been announced so far. She says they hope the new mechanism will meet the needs for which it was established and provide support for all, leaving no one behind.
She says they believe the language of the final text could have been firmer, and that it should have included a call “to take the immediate action needed in line with science … and set a goal of 43% reduction in emissions by 2030”.
This will require a contribution from all countries, she said. “Multilateralism is our north star, and all voices need to be heard. We stress the importance of support for developing countries, incentivising them not penalising them. The global stocktake has sent important signals and we are going to have to build on this work.”
She says countries like hers have a terrible choice between climate action and sustainable development.
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The delegate for Honduras has spoken out strongly on behalf the alliance of countries with the tropical forests on the desperate need for the carbon markets to have a solid regulatory structure and strict transparency.
“We need to denounce those who are working to undermine this transparency which is opening the door to carbon fraud which is what we have seen on some of the voluntary carbon markets.” He argues that the carbon markets could plan an important role but that they need to function properly.
The delegate for Antigua and Barbuda has warned the plenary about the wording around “transition fuels” and concerns about loopholes. “LNG and natural gas are all fossil fuels and we need to transition away from all of them - we want to raise the alarm that transition fuel will become permanent in developing countries.”
But she thanked the president for his work. “Thank you for mentioning fossil fuel transition in the text for the first time.”
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“You are presiding over a historic Cop,” said the Indian negotiator in short remarks.
“The way ahead must be based on equity and climate justice. Let us carry this spirit of cooperation towards building a sustainable planet,” he said.
China followed India’s comments, telling the plenary that there was an irreversible trend towards a low carbon future.
“I wish to thank you as the president of the Cop for working hard, day and night. Yesterday marks the 8th anniversary of the adoption of the Paris agreement,” the Chinese representative said.
“It is China’s view that climate action must feature both ambition and pragmatism. The key is still pragmatic actions and delivering on the commitments. The means of implementation must match the ambitions,” he said.
“Developed countries have an unshakable historical responsibility for climate change and must take the lead to materialise net zero as soon as possible. Deliver without delay to ensure a global just transition. It is China’s core that we have but one planet. To tackle the climate crisis, the international community must react and unite and resist the unilateral measures that undermine the process. China will firmly implement the national strategy for climate action,” he said.
“Let’s build a cleaner and better world. Thank you Mr President.”
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Here’s more reaction to the Cop28 decision - it’s fair to say it is mixed:
Scientist Bill Hare, at Climate Analytics:
“Overall, the text looks like a major victory for the oil and gas producing countries and fossil fuel exporters.” He says the major problems with the text are:
• no commitment to phase out fossil fuels
• no commitment to peak emissions by 2025
• text [on carbon capture etc] that opens the door to false solutions at scale
• text which refers to “transitional fuels” is code for gas and has been promoted by gas exporters
Harjeet Singh, head of global political strategy at Climate Action Network International:
“After decades of evasion, Cop28 finally cast a glaring spotlight on the real culprits of the climate crisis: fossil fuels. A long-overdue direction to move away from coal, oil, and gas has been set. Yet, the resolution is marred by loopholes that offer the fossil fuel industry numerous escape routes, relying on unproven, unsafe technologies. The hypocrisy of wealthy nations, particularly the US, as they continue to expand fossil fuel operations massively while merely paying lip service to the green transition, stands exposed.”
Neil Thorns, director of advocacy at CAFOD:
“Cop28 has confirmed what we need to do with an explicit reference to a world without fossil fuels. But with little new funding, the ‘how’ this happens in a fair and rapid way to support the needs of low-income countries whose populations are suffering from the climate crisis is far from clear. It risks pushing those countries further into a debt crisis.”
Michael Jacobs, at the ODI global think tank:
“It’s a compromise, of course, but the drive to phase out fossil fuels is now unquestionably in the ascendant. All eyes now will be on the national emissions plans due by 2025. What’s been decided here only guides them: there are two years now for governments, pressured by their publics, to make good on this agreement.’
Updated
Graham Stuart, the UK’s climate change minister, has made it back to the plenary just in time after flying back to London yesterday. He says: “Establishing a fund to deal with loss and damage was long overdue - the UK was pleased to contribute to that fund.”
He carried on: “This is the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era. We’ve heard from the small island states and we understand their concerns. The voices of the islands must be heard.”
But, he said, the world has united “around common commitments to move away from fossil fuels.”
“This outcome is something we can genuinely celebrate.”
Updated
Susana Muhamad, Colombia’s environment minister, is giving her reaction to the plenary.
“First I want to communicate my greetings and thanks to the presidency, the UAE for its commitment and very professional team. It has been remarkable. You acted on good faith. The process intended to bring the parties together.
“The text reflects the political reality of this plenary. President Petro defines the struggle of this century between fossil capital and life. We were able to live an intense discussion that was able to make a step forward, but there are also loopholes which may create difficulties for us making 1.5C. It is the first time science has influenced the decision of the Cop in such a deep way,” she says. “I invite scientists to continue with their hard work around the world, because it is opening doors.”
“The loopholes can undermine the political will. Right now, in the financial section of the text, we do not have the economics required for the deep transition... The production of fossil fuels needs to start being reduced. THe frontier of extraction needs to stop,” she says to applause.
“We only have 6 years to show we can materialise in reality what we have just agreed in text. I want to thank the young people at this Cop, the young people, the indigenous activists,” she says, concluding by expressing her solidarity with the people of Palestine.
Updated
The Turkey delegate has spoken now and says that “we witnessed a very successfull organisation in every aspect”.
He told the plenary that “We are extremely pleased that Cop29 will be held next year in our brotherly country Azerbaijan. The first meeting of the IPCC next year will be held in Istanbul in Janary, which shows the importance we attribute to climate action.”
Finally he reiterates Turkey’s offer to host Cop31.
Patrick Greenfield is listening on the floor. He reports on the address from Saudi Arabia, speaking on behalf of Arab states, who begin by expressing gratitude to the presidency and praising the agreement.
“Its outcome allows us to maintain 1.5C in accordance with every nation. We emphasise the UN principle of common but differentiated responsibilities. This principle must be upheld as in the Paris agreement. It supports different approaches to deal with different approaches. We must use every opportunity to reduce emissions regardless of the source,” the negotiator said. The subtext there is possibly that carbon capture technologies need to be scaled up.
“The Arab group is proud and appreciates your great efforts. We congratulate you on this great success,” he concludes.
The German delegate began by thanking “the dear Cop president” for “the great ending of this conference”.
“[In reaching this agreement], we thought at one moment of our family. What would they ask us?” For her, she says, “this was the moment when we joined forces. By this we were capable of delivering, that we cannot just continue what we did in the past. This is now the moment for moving forward.”
“We have decided now on a transition now to phase out fossil fuels ... This Cop is also about deciding that we are walking the path of climate justice together. We have shown that we can unite.”
Venezuela is responding to the text in the plenary after which Al Jaber reminds parties to keep their remarks limited to 3 minutes.
“We wish to thank the presidency of the UAE. We are thanking them for their efforts for getting us to this step. Efforts to achieve the consensus in the last few weeks were no mean feat. Humanity is now facing one of the worst crises in its history. This affects the lives of the entire planet. We have suffered the gradual and increasingly extreme effects.
“As our founder Simon Bolivar said, a great deal has been done but much needs to be done.”
There was climate love, declares the Zambia delegate, who told the plenary “We are confident that going by the deep spirit of unity and love exhibited thoughout this conference, there will be the targets that we’ve asked for.”
“The 1.5 target is being maintained. Support for NDCs has been promised. So far we believe that Cop28 has been successful. We know a lot more work has to be done but we believe that we will build ground and more will be acheived.”
“You promised a strong result and today you are delivering a strong result,” said the Australian negotiator, addressing the plenary.
Speaking on behalf of the Umbrella group, which includes the UK, he said:
“The central part of our discussion has been the future of fossil fuels in our energy system. We called for more than a step forward and the world has stepped up. The message it sends is clear: all nations of the world have acknowledged that our future is in clean energy and the era of fossil fuels will end. The stocktake also shows we have a long way to go. It affirms the latest science on emissions cuts.”
“The next few years are the true test of the Paris agreement. We will have either bent the curve or lost 1.5C.”
Updated
Hallo, this is Bibi van der Zee, taking over from my colleague Natalie Hanman. Patrick Greenfield is on the spot in Dubai, sending notes from the final contributions.
We’ve just heard from the delegate from Switzerland, who told the meeting: “The future is not fossil fuels buecase there is no world where we can keep 1.5 alive if we keep using fossil fuels.”
He said: “We need the energy package to deliver a sens of urgency. The moment of truth when we find if Cop28 is the crucial turning point will be when countries deliver their new commitments.
He also added: “It is clear that we need to accelerate our work to make all financial flows consistent with the Paris agreement and we would have liked to seen more on this.”
Significantly, he noted: “We regret losing referencce to respect for human rights on loss and damage.” This has been an important theme and concern around the agreement.
Updated
The Cuba delegate told the plenary: “We recognise the importance and results achieved in this conference. This has been one of the most difficult and complex Cops since Paris. The increase in emissions and closing windows to keep global warming within 1.5C has been characterised as our north star.”
He added: “In Cuba, we stand ready to do more to make our energy matrix entirely renewable. But this is not enough. We need huge resources in addition to domestic resources which are competing with loss and damage and sustainable development goals. The decisions we take here must be fully consistent with realities. The main stumbling block to 1.5C is the lack of emission reductions and the failure of developed countries to help developing countries.”
EU welcomes text: 'The beginning of the end of fossil fuels'
The EU have welcomed the text.
Wopke Hoekstra, EU climate chief, told the meeting that he thanked the president, for “your leadership, for your vision and tremendous tenacity and the team of [UN climate chief] Simon Stiell.”
“We have found it a tremendous privilege to work alongside all of you, to team up and to bridge the divide and to unite. Because, dear friends, when we are all long gone our children will be there to deal with all the things we have left for them – the good and the bad. And with them in mind it makes this a day of gratitude – and of silent determination.”
“Humanity has finally done what is long overdue. Thirty years we’ve spent to arrive at the beginning of the end of fossil fuels.”
Teresa Ribera, co-leader of the EU delegation and Spain’s environment minister, told the summit: “We pay attention to what Samoa has said – climate justice still needs our engagement and our work.”
“But this step forward and our joint commitment delivers much more in a critical decade. We welcome the strong leadership by all delegates. We think this is a very relevant and positive step forward and we are very happy to take this step with all of you.”
Updated
Bolivia addresses the summit next, with a focus on climate justice and historic responsibility. Diego Pacheco, who is also the spokesperson for the Like-Minded Developing Countries bloc, says:
“These last eight years saw developed countries working intensely to erode and erase their responsibilities. We are seeing the worsening of a more unjust and inequitable world, more inequity and injustice are no solution to the problems of more inequity and injustice around the world.”
“Developed countries have not decided to take on the lead on the climate crisis or change their lifestyles. Developed countries that have plans to expand fossil fuels up to 2050 are running counter to the science. Our true north star is even further beyond its reach.”
And he points to the irony at the heart of this Cop. “Those that are most responsible for the expansion of fossil fuels are now the great champions of the north star.”
He says that Bolivia will support the consensus of the declaration on the first global stocktake. “But we would like to enter a reservation about common but differentiated responsibilities.”
“Sir, we are once again victims of neocolonialism. We need a paradigm shift.”
His comments receive a big round of applause.
(Common but differentiated responsibility means that developing countries – at least, those which were classed as developing in 1992 – should not have to take on the same degree of action as developed countries in cutting emissions, and in providing finance to the poorest and most vulnerable to help them cut emissions and adapt to the impacts of the climate crisis.)
Updated
Back at the plenary, a representative for Bangladesh speaks next, thanking and congratulating the Cop president’s team.
The spokesperson notes that he had warned Al Jaber that this Cop was going to be a litmus test for multilateralism. “The UN process relies on consensus. In the past we’ve tried to hide behind the term consensus – this is the first time we’ve come out of our comfort zone and tried to look at the bigger picture.”
“When the first draft was presented we were extremely disappointed. Over the last two days, thanks to our collective will, we have been able to remove those clouds.”
He welcomed the text, although noted that it was not perfect, and credited the UAE with running a good Cop. “At the majlis [the open meeting convened by Al Jaber] you said come in here with solutions.” He said that had been very powerful. “Trust and solidarity is going to be imperative. We can build on this text.”
“The better we are at keeping temperatures limited, the lighter will be the burden on loss and damage. I’m sure there will be issues in the global stocktake which require further discussion but this is the spirit that we take out of here.”
Updated
My colleague Nina Lakhani says “Global south, Indigenous peoples & frontline communities overwhelmingly outraged by Cop28 global stocktake”.
Global south, Indigenous peoples & frontline communities overwhelmingly outraged by Cop28 global stocktake esp focus on false (&often harmful) solutions like carbon markets & CCS & very weak on means of implementation. How will vulnerable nations pay for the energy transition?
— Nina Lakhani (@ninalakhani) December 13, 2023
There has been more negative reaction to the text from some campaigners, again picking up on the inclusion of carbon capture and storage (CCS) – an unproven technology that has failed to deliver on a commercial scale despite receiving billions in support. “We cannot CCS ourselves out of the problem,” Wopke Hoekstra, the European commissioner for climate action, said last week. “The reality we need to face is that we have to phase out fossil fuels, period.”
Responding to the second draft of the global stocktake text, Alex Rafalowicz, Executive Director of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, said:
Having the words fossil fuels in the text is an important political signal, but it’s a far cry from the ‘historic’ outcome we were all expecting - it is the weakest we could have gotten, it has all the intentionally vague words planted to deceive us, and is still very reliant on all the unproven technologies we want to avoid. The Global Stocktake flashed a bright red emergency siren, but the response did not meet the urgency of the moment. For 30 years this process has failed to face up to the core driver of the climate crisis, today that changes, but only because the people on the front-lines held the line for the rest of humanity. Those most responsible for the climate crisis did not bring finance, technology, or actions to start phasing out fossil fuels, instead they brought hollow hypocrisy and that poisoned the talks just as they are poisoning all life on Earth.”
Eduardo Giesen, Latin America and the Caribbean coordinator for the global campaign to demand global justice, said:
Once again, at Cop28, the rich countries in complicity with the world’s economic elites, sacrifice the opportunity for real decarbonisation and a transition based on justice, equity, and sustainability. Through a terrible text —with misleading concepts like “unabated fossils”— wealthy nations promote the continuity of fossil fuels extractivism and false solutions. Carbon capture and storage, hydrogen production, nuclear energy and others, increase climate vulnerability and lead to the violation of the rights of communities and nature in the Latin American and the Caribbean region as well as the entire Global South.”
John Kerry, US climate change envoy, speaks next, and tells the plenary:
“I want to first thank the entire UAE team. I think as you look around this room, it underscores the complications of bringing 200 countries together and finding consensus. Everyone here should be pleased in a world of Ukraine and the Middle East and all of the other challenges of the planet, this is a moment where multilateralism has come together. That is hard.”
He said of the agreement: “It is a document that reflects two years of work by all parties from every part of the globe... While nobody here will see their views completely reflected, the fact is that this document sends a very strong signal to the world. We have to adhere to keeping 1.5 in reach. In particular, it states that our next NDCs will be aligned with 1.5. It reflects what the science says, we have to urgently peak GHG emissions and have them fall.”
He also marked the historical nature of the reference to fossil fuels. “For the first time in the history of our regime, the decision calls for transitioning away for fossil fuels to achieve net zero by 2050. We would have liked clearer language about the need to begin peaking. We would know this was a compromise between parties.”
Kerry also announced, with the Chinese delegation “that we both intend to update our long-term strategies and we invite other parties in joining us”.
Updated
The United Nations secretary general has made a statement on the deal: “Whether you like it or not, fossil fuel phase out is inevitable. Let’s hope it doesn’t come too late”
To those who opposed a clear reference to phase out of fossil fuels during the #COP28 Climate Conference, I want to say:
— António Guterres (@antonioguterres) December 13, 2023
Whether you like it or not, fossil fuel phase out is inevitable. Let’s hope it doesn’t come too late. pic.twitter.com/q2LqMw75K1
Mary Robinson, chair of the Elders and former president of Ireland, has also reacted, saying:
The Cop28 agreement, while signalling the need to bring about the end of the fossil fuel era, falls short by failing to commit to a full fossil fuel phase out.
If 1.5C is our ‘north ntar’, and science our compass, we must swiftly phase out all fossil fuels to chart a course towards a liveable future.
World leaders must continue to urgently pull together and find ways forward to tackle this existential threat. Every day of delay condemns millions to an uninhabitable world.”
The Cop28 climate summit has approved a deal that its supporters said would, for the first time, push nations to move away from fossil fuels to avert the worst effects of climate change.
Read our full story here:
Updated
A spokesperson from Pakistan is up next, and says his son told him this would be the coolest summer for his lifetime. He takes with him a sense of support and respect for each country’s needs.
“The journey from rhetoric to reality is difficult and we are witnessing it right now.”
Marina da Silva, Brazil’s minister of the environment and climate change, welcomes the deal and says the focus now has to be a just transition, so the world can move towards an end to fossil fuels.
“The challenge of delivering this 1.5 mission will depend on everyone.”
She looks forward to celebrating this at Cop30 in the Amazon.
Updated
Small island states: 'This process has failed us'
There was confusion in the plenary hall when Sultan Al Jaber passed the text without hearing any statements from countries or parties, writes Patrick Greenfield. We had all been expecting a lengthy day of debates about how the text might be changed for one final version. But this is not happening. The gavel is down and the agreement has passed.
“This process has failed us,” Samoa lead negotiator, Anne Rasmussen, said as the chair of the Alliance of Small Island States.
This happened at the biodiversity Cop15 in Montreal last December where objections from African countries were ignored by the Chinese Cop president and the agreement was passed anyway. The DRC minister, one of the countries objecting in Montreal, said they didn’t recognise the agreement – which is formed by consensus – and only recognised it after a handshake on the plenary floor a day later. It was a dangerous moment as these agreements are fragile.
This also happened for the Paris agreement. Nicaragua’s concerns about the Paris climate agreement were ignored by the French minister Laurent Fabius in 2015 during the final hours of negotiations until after it had been passed.
While Aosis expressed unhappiness with parts of the text – in particular on the science, transition fuels and finance – they did not say they objected to its passing or disputed its legitimacy. This is crucial for the political stability of the agreement.
Updated
Samoa lead negotiator, Anne Rasmussen, speaks from the floor next, as the chair of the Alliance of Small Island States. She says Asios was not in the room when the text was announced as being agreed to. She says:
“Let me thank you and your team.
“We didn’t want to interrupt the standing ovation – but we are confused. It seems you just gavelled the decision and the small island states were not in the room.
“The draft text you have has many strong elements. We welcome technology. The question we have considered is whether they are enough. We have come to the conclusion that the course correction we have needed has not been secured.
“It is not enough to reference the science and then ignore what the science is telling us we should do.”
Updated
Now UN climate chief, Simon Stiell, takes to the stage, after hugging Al Jaber.
“I want to start by thanking the UAE for hosting us. We needed this Cop to send clear signals on several fronts. We needed a green light in renewables, climate and resilience.”
“At every stage, climate action must drive action side by side with human development and dignity. They are a climate action lifeline, not a finish line. Governments need to turn it into real economy outcomes without delay.”
“Beginning of the end for fossil fuels. All parties must agree on every word, every comma, every full stop. Indeed, it underscores how much these UN conferences can achieve.”
“We must get on with the job of putting the Paris agreement to full work.”
“In early 2025, countries must deliver new NDCs. It must bring us into alignment with a 1.5C world. We will keep working to improve the process.”
“Without these conferences we would be headed for 5 degrees. We’re currently headed for 3 degrees.”
“I thank you for doing everything possible to keep us on the straight and narrow.”
“My final message is to ordinary people everywhere. Everyone one of you is making a difference. Your voices and determination will be more important than ever.”
“We are still in this race. We will be with you every step of the way.”
Updated
The UAE consensus: a deal has been signed – but what kind of deal?
As the deal goes through with stunning swiftness, Cop president Al Jaber has labelled it the “UAE consensus”, writes Fiona Harvey.
But is this a historic deal that will spell the eventual end of fossil fuels? Or will it be one more step on the road to hell?
In the world of climate talks, these two are not mutually exclusive. The text that was presented to delegates on Wednesday morning at Cop28 – and that was adopted a few minutes ago - enjoins countries for the first time to embark on a de facto phase out of fossil fuels. But it cannot require them to do so and it contains “a litany of loopholes”, according to the small island states that are most vulnerable to the impacts of the climate crisis, that will hamper the world from cutting greenhouse gas emissions drastically enough to limit global heating to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
There are plenty of problems with this deal. Developing countries still need hundreds of billions more in finance, to help them make the transition away from coal, oil and gas. Developed countries and oil producers will not be forced to move as fast as climate science urges.
The US will get away lightly from this Cop, having pledged just over $20m in new finance for the poor world, and with its position as the world’s biggest oil and gas producer intact. China will continue to expand its coal production as well as renewable energy, and India’s coal industry will also have little to fear.
But this deal, imperfect as it is, faced colossal opposition from the world’s oil producing countries. Saudi Arabia tried to remove any reference to fossil fuels, then tried to insert references to carbon capture and storage, a technology it professes to love but strangely fails to invest in. Russia worked behind the scenes to scupper progress, and will do so far more next year when the Cop is held in Baku, Azerbaijan.
The general feeling, as the final plenary of Cop28 kicks off just 24 hours after its scheduled finish, is that this deal does represent significant progress for the countries that want to tackle the climate crisis. The world must take this signal as the end of the fossil fuel era – now, before the gates of hell close behind us.
“Colleagues and friends, it has been a personal privilege to guide this conference,” says Al Jaber. “I would like to express my deepest gratitude to all that made this happen. To every country who made it a success, I say thank you. You have come in record numbers. You care deeply about the future of this wonderful planet and so do I.”
“To my family, of whom I’ve seen far too little of this year, you inspire me and motivate me. I thank you.”
“Colleagues, our task was to build on the foundations of what others have built for us. Future generations may not know your names but they’ll owe every single one of your a debt of gratitude.”
“If it wasn’t for your collective effort, we would not have been able to achieve this historic achievement. I thank you again.”
A standing ovation in the plenary.
Al Jaber continues: “Many said this could not be done. When I spoke to you at the very start, I promised a different sort of Cop, private and public sectors… everyone came together from day one. Everyone united, acted and delivered. We operationalised loss and damage and filled the fund. We delivered world first after world first.”
“It is built on common ground, it is strengthened by full inclusivity. It is enhanced, balanced but make no mistake, a historic package.”
“For the first time, to deliver on methane and emissions. We have language on fossil fuels in our final agreement for the first time ever.”
“Let me sound a word of caution. Any agreement is only as good as its implementation. We are what we do, not what we say. We must turn this agreement into tangible action. If we unite, we can have a profound effect on all of our futures. Inclusivity kept us going in the difficult days. Everyone has been heard, from Indigenous peoples or youth to global south. “
“We have reframed the conversation around climate finance. We have intergrated the real economy into the climate challenge.”
The global stocktake text has been adopted
The global stocktake text has been adopted, with no objections.
The room bursts into applause, as Al Jaber gavels through the agreement. He beams.
“From the bottom of my heart, thank you. We have travelled a long road together in a short amount of time. We have worked very hard to secure a better future for our people and planet. We should be proud of our historic achievements. My country, UAE, is proud of its role in helping you move forward.
We have delivered a comprehensive response to the global stocktake. We have delivered a robust action plan to keep 1.5C in reach. It is a balanced plan that addresses emissions… it is built on common ground. It is strengthened by full inclusivity. It is a historic package to accelerate climate action. It is the UAE consensus.”
Updated
Sultan Al Jaber, Cop28 president, sounding tired, deals with the global stocktake text first.
“Through the night and the early hours, we worked collectively for consensus. The presidency listened, engaged and guided. I promised I would roll up my sleeves. I promised I would be with you. You did step up, you showed flexibility, you put common interest ahead of self interest. Let us finish what we started. Let us unite, act and now deliver.”
He tells the plenary: “We have the basis to make transformations change happen – let us finish what we have started”
The plenary is beginning.
On the vexed issue of loss and damage, there are some improvements from the previous text, writes Nina Lakhani, but lots of gaps which could undermine the effectiveness of the historic new fund.
Julie-Anne Richards from the Loss and Damage collaboration, a global network of experts tracking the new fund, said that there is some “improvement” on loss and damage, with it being mentioned in various sections of the text, such as the finance section, “which is very important”. “However, there were many opportunities to improve loss and damage that were missed overnight,” she says.
Across the text, there are sections where loss and damage has not been mentioned, where it should be integrated alongside mitigation and adaptation as the third pillar of climate action, as reflected in the Paris agreement. “This leaves efforts to address loss and damage feeling like an option rather than a critical component of climate action,” she says
“Importantly, we still miss a stand alone agenda item on loss and damage. Which leaves developing countries fighting at each Cop for space to discuss it,” she says.
Updated
Feelings are running high – not much sleep and so much at stake, especially for the young people who’ve come to Dubai.
The plenary hall is filling up as people prepare for the next session, and delegates have been asked to take their seats. As I posted earlier, the plenary sessions are the decision-making sessions of the Cops. They can be formal, in which a final decision will be made at the end, or informal, in which the purpose is to get reaction to the text before a new version is worked on. This one is informal to begin with, according to the UNFCCC.
Sultan Al Jaber arrived at the conference centre earlier this morning, as the texts were published on the UN website. He did say, at the beginning of the process, that he’d have it all done by the deadline – but that was on Tuesday morning. It will be interesting to see if he can get the text signed off today.
Alliance of Small Island states says new text is improvement but contains 'litany of loopholes'
The Alliance of Small Island States, a bloc of 39 countries, have released a statement with its reaction to the new draft text, writes Adam Morton. The group says it is “an improvement and does indeed reflect a number of submissions made by small island developing states”, but is concerned about “a litany of loopholes”.
Our world’s window to keeping 1.5 alive is rapidly closing, and we feel the text does not provide the necessary balance to strengthen global action for course correction on climate change.
Aosis has been very clear that the global stocktake must be the vehicle for delivery of course correction, yet it sputters in significant areas. In terms of safeguarding 1.5C in a meaningful way – the language is certainly a step forward, it speaks to transitioning away from fossil fuels in a way the process has not done before. But we must note the text does not speak specifically to fossil fuel phaseout and mitigation in a way that is in fact ‘the step change that is needed’. It is incremental and not transformational.
We see a litany of loopholes in this text that are a major concern to us... we do not see any commitment or even an invitation for parties to peak emissions by 2025. We [see] reference to the science throughout the text but then we refrain from an agreement to take the relevant action in order to act in line with what the science says we have to do. It is not enough for us to reference the science and then make agreements that ignore what the science is telling us we need to do.”
Aosis’s specific concerns include:
references to ‘abatement’ that it fears could be used to underwrite fossil fuel expansion;
inclusion of the phrase ‘transitional fuels’, which is often used to refer to gas;
inclusion of a list of technologies – such as carbon capture and utilisation and storage – that “could result in actions that undermine our efforts”.
UK climate minister Graham Stuart has made it back to Cop, Patrick Greenfield has confirmed. And he likes the new text …
He made it back to #Cop28
— Patrick Greenfield (@pgreenfielduk) December 13, 2023
UK climate minister @grahamstuart tells me he’s feeling fine after his long round trip from Dubai to London and back. He likes the text.
“We’ve made significant progress. I congratulate all the parties for the work they’ve done on our key priorities:… pic.twitter.com/RoVAlhL7Wz
The text gets a thumbs up from Denmark, says Patrick Greenfield from the plenary floor.
“If this is adopted then I’m happy. It’s enormous progress but it’s not adopted yet.” Danish climate minister Dan Jørgensen tells me on the plenary floor. pic.twitter.com/vzjqjotS1R
— Patrick Greenfield (@pgreenfielduk) December 13, 2023
However, as yet there is no sign of the UK delegation.
Still nobody in the hot seat for the UK. Will climate minister @grahamstuart make it back to represent the government after flying back to London yesterday? We were told he would be here at #Cop28 pic.twitter.com/ia2fRN17Hs
— Patrick Greenfield (@pgreenfielduk) December 13, 2023
We reported on Tuesday that the minister in charge of Cop28 climate talks for the UK, Graham Stuart, had returned to London, just as the summit reached crisis point. Climate campaigners and politicians reacted with fury to the news. We were told he was due to head back to the conference.
Speaking to Ed King’s point (see earlier post) that the focus on controversial market “solutions” like carbon offsets throws developing countries under the bus, it’s Indigenous communities who will most likely be impacted, writes Nina Lakhani.
Tom Goldtooth, director of the Indigenous Environmental Network and Cop veteran, said:
The UN climate change conference is failing humanity and Mother Earth. We are seeing firsthand the fossil fuel polluters and wealthy governments manipulating developing countries to undermine real action on climate change. Indigenous leadership, Indigenous knowledge holders, and youth spoke with one voice demanding a rapid transition for a phase out of fossil fuels at source. Falling on deaf ears of the governments, instead more false solutions are being pushed to accelerate climate change and deforestation including carbon capture and storage, carbon markets and offsets, nature based solutions, hydrogen and nuclear power.”
I am sitting inside the plenary hall waiting for countries to give their public responses to the text, writes Patrick Greenfield. Ministers have begun filtering into the huge hall. The entrance is lined with activists telling them to “hold the line” and phase out fossil fuels.
Brazil’s environment minister Marina Silva filtered past me earlier. Some are sitting on their own in the LED lighting, others are in groups chatting. Ireland’s environment minister Eamon Ryan has just arrived in front of me.
Ministers have started arriving at the plenary at #Cop28 . Brazil’s environment minister @MarinaSilva just walked past. This is how activists are greeting arriving delegates. pic.twitter.com/ZXhONuBWHN
— Patrick Greenfield (@pgreenfielduk) December 13, 2023
Consultations between the UAE presidency and countries have been going on throughout the early hours and many officials who have been drafting the new text are operating on very little sleep. There is confidence that this text will be better received. In reality, this plenary is the moment of truth for Sultan Al Jaber and his diplomatic team.
We are shortly expecting a plenary to take place. The plenary sessions are the decision-making sessions of the Cops. They can be formal, in which a final decision will be made at the end, or informal (also called stocktaking), in which the purpose is to get reaction to the text before a new version is worked on. This one is informal to begin with, according to the UNFCCC, which suggests we may still be some time away from the end of this Cop.
In practice, the plenaries means every country gets a chance to share their view of the new text in an open forum, with discussion and debate taking place in the hope of reaching a final agreement. Sometimes this can be quite dramatic, and it is a rare moment in which countries from around the world, developed and developing, have to listen to each other. We will be following it live and posting excerpts from the country delegate speeches, as well as ongoing wider reaction to the text.
Will all countries agree to the new text? Reaction on social media from experts is still divided.
Tom Evans, E3G policy advisor, said:
If this text is adopted … it will show a collective recognition that we must turn away from fossil fuels and move towards a cleaner future. Champions for this vision – both small island states and major economies – have worked tirelessly overnight. However, it is clear that not everyone is ready to admit the truth of what’s needed. This text alone might help avoid disaster in Dubai but it does not avoid disaster for the planet.”
Bob Ward, of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics, said:
I suspect that the language in this new draft text on the Global Stocktake, calling for countries to contribute to a transition away from fossil fuels in energy to achieve net zero by 2050, will be too weak for some Parties.
Meanwhile, Mohamed Adow, from Power Shift Africa, has shared his reaction to the text – also pretty mixed:
For the first time in three decades of climate negotiations the words fossil fuels have ever made it into a Cop outcome. We are finally naming the elephant in the room. The genie is never going back into the bottle and future Cops will only turn the screws even more on dirty energy.
Although we’re sending a strong signal with one hand, there’s still too many loopholes on unproven and expensive technologies like carbon capture and storage which fossil fuel interests will try and use to keep dirty energy on life support.
The transition may be fast, the text calls for a transition away from fossil fuels by the end of the decade. But the transition it’s not funded or fair. We’re still missing enough finance to help developing countries decarbonise and there needs to be greater expectation on rich fossil fuel producers to phase out first.
Some people may have had their expectations for this meeting raised too high, but this result would have been unheard of two years ago, especially at a Cop meeting in a petrostate. It shows that even oil and gas producers can see we’re heading for a fossil free world.
Ed King, a veteran watcher of climate diplomacy, has listed the following key takeaways on the new text:
In terms of signalling the end of the fossil fuel era it’s an improvement on the last GST text but the bar was so low it could hardly be worse.
There are clear signals that countries agree fossil fuels need to be replaced by clean energy with 2050 as the target year for global net zero.
References to transition fuels being essential could have been written by a major gas producer. The science is clear: gas is a methane heavy fossil fuel, not a transition fuel.
There is support for tripling clean energy by 2030 and doubling energy efficiency as well as recognition that the costs of renewables are falling fast
There is repetition of Cop26 language on coal and emphasis that the new set of national climate pledges should be delivered from late 2024
There is very little on finance and – frankly – worrying language on the role of carbon offsets: many poor countries will see this as a text that throws them under the bus
Critically, given 2024 will be a very hard year, a “Road map to mission 1.5C” will be launched to enhance international cooperation on the way to Cop30 in Brazil. The UN is banking on Lula to lead.
A few metres away from me in the convention centre, the Japanese delegation is huddled around a print out of the new text, writes Patrick Greenfield. Their delegation is swatting away questions. On the screens nearby, it says there will be a plenary at 9:30am local time, although it also said the text would drop at 6am and it came a little later.
What do countries think? I can see the Japanese delegation huddled around a print out of the text in the convention centre. #Cop28 pic.twitter.com/Ndec0XhNCs
— Patrick Greenfield (@pgreenfielduk) December 13, 2023
Reactions from countries can take a while to come though and silence is just as important as noise. With the last version, the Pacific island states were among the first to comment, dismissing the text as a death sentence for their countries. The EU, Brazil and other states took much longer to publicly comment but still gave it the thumbs down. India and Saudi Arabia were among those that remained silent.
What are the key things to watch from countries?
First, is the language on fossil fuels and 1.5C strong enough for small island states? They have made it very clear that those countries are here to fight for their survival from rising sea levels, for which meeting the temperature target is vital.
Next is adaptation. Countries such as Uganda, who are expecting billions in revenue from fossil fuel developments, have made it very clear that they want financial support for the transition away from coal, oil and gas. Are they satisfied?
Finally, is the text too ambitious on transitioning away from fossil fuels for existing coal, oil and gas producers? What do countries like Iraq, Saudi Arabia, India and others make of the signal to end the fossil fuel era. Can they stomach it?
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Climate justice advocates disappointed with implementation language
While Norway’s minister for climate and the environment, Espen Barth Eide, said the new draft was the first time that the world had united around “such a clear text on the need to transition away from fossil fuels”, climate justice advocates have been much more critical, mostly because of the weak language on means of implementation. Nina Lakhani has done a very useful guide to what implementation is here: in short, “how countries struggling to eradicate poverty and provide basic services (including energy) for their people fund the transition away from fossil fuels”.
Here is a selection of reaction to the new text that speaks to this issue:
Lidy Nacpil, Asian Peoples Movement on Debt and Development:
“The governments of the richest countries in the world shamelessly refused to acknowledge the Global North’s historical and continuing responsibility for the climate crisis while making outrageous claims to championing ambition. There cannot be ambition without equity, and no equity without the delivery of their full climate finance obligations. The likely failure of this COP is not just simply a lack of progress, but will actually set the world back and the Global North, especially the US must be held accountable”.
Meena Raman, head of programmes, Third World Network:
“We are most disappointed that the Dubai global stocktake outcome has not recognised the need for developed countries to provide the support needed to developing countries in respect of the much needed transitioning away from fossil fuels and for meeting the adaptation needs, including for the Loss and Damage Fund. Instead, we see escape routes being set in place across a wide range of decisions to dilute their commitments and divert attention to the private sector and the multilateral development banks for the provision of climate finance. This is highly regrettable. Scaled-up ambition on finance is much needed to secure the high ambition in developing countries. Otherwise, any lofty global targets will only remain a pipe dream.”
Asad Rehman, executive director, War on Want:
“COP28 was time to walk the walk and not simply talk the talk. The signal that the era of fossil fuel pollution is over won’t be because of weak words in a text, or hollow statements here in Dubai, but when the UK, USA and others not only announce an immediate halt to their huge rollout of even more deadly fossil fuels, stop banking on deadly false solutions and put hard cash on the table.”
Teresa Anderson, ActionAid International:
“While the new text sends a signal that the fossil industry’s days are numbered, the wealthiest countries have clearly refused point blank to offer any new finance to help developing countries make these targets a reality on the ground. Rich countries want to have their cake and eat it. But they should remember – there’s no such thing as a free climate target. This text means that lower income countries already being pushed into debt by the cost of climate disasters may be forced to make impossible choices between economic security and climate action.”
Updated
Leo Hickman of Carbon Brief is pointing out that the document “calls on” parties to “contribute to the following global efforts,” writes Bibi van der Zee. In “UNFCCC legal jargon, this is known to mean an ‘invitation’ or ‘request’”, he says. “And, even more crucially, it is the *weakest* of all the various terms used for such exhortations”.
"calls on..."
— Leo Hickman (@LeoHickman) December 13, 2023
This is the crucial term here.
In UNFCCC legal jargon, this is known to mean an "invitation" or "request"
And, even more crucially, it is the *weakest* of all the various terms used for such exhortations#COP28 pic.twitter.com/KOfPIblSY5
He links to a older post where his colleague Simon Evans shows that the UN has set out these terms formally.
Asked to grade the new text, if the previous draft was an F, the analysts/campaigners ranged from B to C, writes Nina Lakhani.
Catherine Abreu, founder and Executive Director of Destination Zero, said:
“The text does give a clear signal on the need to transition away from fossil fuels in a just and equitable manner, and calls on parties to begin doing that. In this critical decade, that being said, it does not yet represent the highest level of ambition outcome that we were looking forward to here at.
“The text does give some indication of the level of finance required to enable the energy transition, it also gives some acknowledgement of the fact that countries will be moving in this energy transition at different paces. However, it does not yet give us a clear enough sense of who needs to be taking the lead in the energy transition, and that is the developed countries particularly those that are legacy fossil fuel producers. And it should be clearer on who provides the necessary finance for the energy transition, and again that money needs to be coming from developed countries.”
Some are very critical of what they see as the influence of lobbyists on the process. We have reported on this extensively – the record number of fossil fuel lobbyists at Cop28, as well as those from the big meat and diary and the carbon capture industries, and the billionaires present who made their fortunes from polluting industries.
Rachel Rose Jackson, director of climate research and policy at Corporate Accountability, who has done research into lobbying, said:
“A Cop flooded by more than 2,400 fossil fuel lobbyists and overseen by a fossil fuel executive delivered a text that might contain some key words, but on closer inspection is littered with their polluting rubbish, false solutions, and dangerous distractions that guarantee the continuation of the fossil fuel era. The United States, UK, EU, Norway, and others self-proclaim themselves climate ‘champions’, but yet again are twisting the outcomes of these talks so they don’t have to wean themselves off their fossil fuel addiction. They have bullied and blocked efforts to deliver the public finance, technology, and capacity we need to actually be able to deliver a just fossil fuel phaseout, and are yet again orchestrating their great escape from having to do their fair share by ripping equity out of the text.”
Updated
First takes from non-profit analysts are coming in, writes Nina Lakhani, and the overall consensus is that the new global stocktake draft text is a significant improvement on the last, especially the shift from “should” to “calls on” – but still not as strong as had been hoped a few days ago. There is too much emphasis on unproven technological fixes – which one analyst calls “false solutions” - such as carbon capture and hydrogen, which climate scientists have long said can only ever play a niche role in cutting greenhouse gasses.
“Overall we get a clear signal to phase out fossil fuels… It is not the most ambitious outcome that we could have landed at this Cop given the momentum from over a hundred countries demanding strong language on this, but it’s a step forward,” said Amos Wemanya, senior advisor, Renewable Energy and Just Transitions. “But we still have a lot of false solutions in the text.”
Caroline Brouillette, Executive Director of Climate Action Network, said:
“This text truly represents the paradox that is Cop28. On the one hand we’ve seen the most visible ever capture of the process by oil and gas lobbyists, and on the other hand, you’ve seen a record momentum to finally tackle the root cause.
We see in the text the need to transition away from fossil fuels, which is a significant improvement from the last text, on the other hand, opening the door to not only dangerous technological distractions like blue hydrogen, nuclear, but the reference to traditional fuels being acceptable, which is a myth, being promoted by the LNG industry and is not grounded in science.”
On the draft Global Goal on Adaptation outcome, which developing countries including the African groups have been pushing on for eight years, Brouillette said: “The global goal on adaptation text is still a hollow commitment, as there’s no means of implementation attached to the targets. One perhaps positive small step forward is that the reference to Article 2.1C [linking adaptation to private finance] has been removed.”
Our reporters are up early in the UAE. Here’s the first dispatch from Patrick Greenfield.
Good morning from Dubai where, after a very long wait, the second text is finally with us. The crucial language on fossil fuels has been changed from the previous version after uproar from island states, the EU, NGOs and many others. It now reads:
“Transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science.”
I am back on site at Cop28, where it is still very quiet. The sun is rising over the giant dome in the middle of the Expo Centre and returning delegates are being greeted with news that coffee shops are open in some areas. This is good news: today could be a long one.
Some people have spent the night here waiting for news about the text, sleeping in the corridors and pavilions of the giant convention centre. The last few days have been exhausting for negotiators in particular and, I am sure, the UAE presidency, who is tasked with bringing the opinions of the world together for the final text package.
Delegations will be digesting the documents ahead of a final plenary in the next few hours. Will this be enough for small islands states fighting for their survival, for whom 1.5C is a matter of life and death, or will they reject it? Can petrostates accept this indication that the fossil fuel era is ending? Are developing countries happy with the text on adapting to a new economic system? We will find out today.
We do not yet know if this is a final text, a “take it or leave it” offer to the world, or whether another round of negotiations will be needed. These talks famously drag on. The negotiation venue will be closed on Friday, we have been told, so parties need to get moving.
Latest draft text released
Hello, and welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of what it is hoped will be the final stretch of the Cop28 climate conference. After the UAE presidency’s first text of the global stocktake – the main document being discussed at the summit – was widely condemned as not being ambitious enough, a second draft has now been published.
The proposed agreement calls on nations to transition away from fossil fuels to avert the worst impacts of climate change, writes my colleague Adam Morton.
The latest draft text, released early on Wednesday in the United Arab Emirates, does not include a commitment to phase out or phase down fossil fuels, as many countries, civil society groups and scientists have urged.
Instead, it called on countries to contribute to global efforts to transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems “in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science”.
Read the full story here:
The first iteration of this text was widely criticised. Reaction so far to the second is mixed. We’ll follow the latest developments here.
I’m Natalie Hanman and you can contact me on natalie.hanman@theguardian.com with any feedback or comments. Thank you for reading the Guardian.
Catch up on our full coverage of Cop28 here.
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