As the Cop27 climate summit begins in Egypt today (Sunday) we’ve taken a look at research showing which parts of Bristol could be permanently under water in less than 30 years. Experts at Climate Central developed an interactive map earlier this year, which uses current projections to show which areas could be lost to rising sea levels by 2050.
The modelling by Climate Central predicts that Avonmouth, Severn Beach and large parts of Weston-Super-Mare, Clevedon and Portishead will be flooded in the next 28 years. That scenario is based on research around sea level rises, annual flooding and pollution rates at their current trajectory, say the group.
Users of the map can adjust the settings to show predictions based on what would happen if immediate, far-reaching action were taken around climate change, or if things went unchecked. Studies cited by the group have claimed sea levels could rise by as much as 10.8 metres if temperatures were to increase by four degrees from pre-industrial levels.
READ MORE: Bristol mayor will travel to Egypt for climate conference to raise cash from investors
They say that even a two-degree rise could result in 130 million people losing their homes worldwide. According to their predictions, stretches of the M5 just west of Bristol would be submerged, as would the beaches at Weston, Sand Bay, Portishead and Ladye Bay.
Major supermarkets including Clevedon's Tesco and both Sainsbury's and Morrisons in Weston, would be in areas shaded red, not to mention thousands of homes and other businesses - forcing huge movement of people inland. Bristol itself is predicted to escape most of the flooding in the modelling, with Avonmouth being the worst-hit area.
Explore the map below:
How to combat rising sea levels will be one of the many topics up for discussion at Cop27. Each year the United Nations hosts a global climate summit, called the Conference of Parties (COP), to get countries around the world to work together on tackling climate change. Last year, COP26 was held in Glasgow, and this year the summit will be in Sharm El Sheikh.
This year’s COP27 begins today (Sunday, November 6) and will see world leaders once again attempt to agree global policies on cutting greenhouse gas emissions. But the key day for world leaders is Monday, when high-level talks are scheduled, and US President Joe Biden is expected to attend.
Earlier this week Prime Minister Rishi Sunak reversed his decision to skip the summit, bowing to pressure from activists, his own environment adviser and Boris Johnson.
Bristol mayor Marvin Rees will also travel to Egypt next week for the conference and try to raise cash from investors. He said at COP27 he would be representing not just Bristol, but also other UK cities and “cities all over the world” to get investment in climate projects.
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