Even by the glacial standards of UN biodiversity negotiations, Cop15 has been slow. We have been in Montreal for more than a week and I am flabbergasted at the lack of progress, especially after how important several world leaders said the summit would be.
There is still time to turn it around. But there is no political urgency behind the biodiversity crisis or any desire for transformative change, as far as I can tell. Greta Thunberg’s “blah, blah, blah” criticism of government negotiations on the environment is proving right as things stand, unfortunately.
We have made progress on parts of the agreement that are not so controversial, but we have left all of the difficult bits to the final few days of a process that has taken three years. It sets up a dramatic showdown for ministers this weekend and early next week as Christmas gets closer. Late-night bilaterals and in-corridor meetings will soon be with us.
Behind closed doors, countries seem equally dysfunctional. The African group seems uncoordinated, the Latin Americans appear divided, the Europeans are not being constructive, the Canadians have not been helpful in talks and the Chinese are quiet. As ministers arrive in Montreal, these are critical days to sort out the agreement.
We could probably live with a soggy biscuit deal. Nobody is going to die if that happens – apart from Earth’s biodiversity. There are not the same main economic interests here that we see for climate change. But this was meant to be nature’s Paris moment and it looks like that ambition is being pushed into the 2030s and 2040s.
China is not providing the leadership we need for a breakthrough at the moment. It has always been quiet in UN biodiversity negotiations but this is not the normal role of a Cop president. Politically, a president is responsible for helping to resolve differences and pushing countries to sort out their divisions. That may be happening – nobody has perfect information about the state of play at Cop15 – but it does not seem to be the case.
In talks, China has remained objective and offered no opinions, telling other countries that they must sort it out between themselves. We cannot go on like this. Someone needs to step up.
Canada has done a great job organising Cop15 at the last minute in Montreal. But even though we’ve heard big commitments from the prime minister, Justin Trudeau, on a target to protect 30% of the planet, it is not being helpful with the other parts of negotiations. The UN is doing its best.
We need political leadership from ministers in the final few days. Someone needs to build enough political will to make a breakthrough. I cannot see where it is going to come from as things stand. Yet, if we can do that, an agreement could be quickly reached. There will have to be late-night negotiations and early-morning secret talks to make it happen. A successful outcome is still possible but we must start making real progress. We cannot keep kicking the can down the road.
