Wide receivers are in, running backs are out—sort of.
If you’ve begun your fantasy football draft research, you’ve likely noticed more receivers than usual are near the top of rankings in redraft leagues. Running backs still dominate the top of drafts—Jonathan Taylor is the consensus 1.01 and some familiar running backs are still going early in the first round—but more and more pass-catchers have worked their way into the top 12 picks compared to recent years.
I wrote an article last summer titled “Fantasy Fans Buck NFL Trends By Waiting on Receivers & Stockpiling Running Backs Early.” Ten running backs finished among the top 12 by average draft position (ADP) last season along with just one wide receiver (Davante Adams) and one tight end (Travis Kelce). One year later, the number of first-round running backs is down to seven and the number of receivers has ballooned to five.
How exactly did this happen?
There are several explanations that can be made about the passing boom in the NFL and the astonishing pro-readiness of incoming rookie receivers. But the rather simple reason receivers are shooting up draft boards is because the best players at the position are scoring more and more points with each passing year (no pun intended).
That came to a head in 2021 when a fifth-year player from a small school who had never made a Pro Bowl won the receiving triple crown, AP Offensive Player of the Year and Super Bowl MVP all in one season. His name is Cooper Kupp.
Kupp led all fantasy players with 439.5 points scored last season, the most ever by a wide receiver. Antonio Brown led all players in points back in 2014, but Kupp blew those numbers out of the water.
I can go on and on about the magic of Kupp’s season (and also about how I selected his former teammate Robert Woods ahead of him in multiple drafts), but he wasn’t alone at his position among the top 10 scorers. Adams and Deebo Samuel joined him with top-10 overall finishes and Justin Jefferson just missed the cut with the 11th-most points scored.
Kupp outscored the top-scoring quarterback (Josh Allen) and running back (Jonathan Taylor) by a healthy margin and a few of his fellow receivers joined him in beating out some traditional top scorers like Aaron Rodgers, who finished 10th in total points scored.
Adams was the only receiver who finished inside the top 10 in points in 2020 (eighth). Michael Thomas soared to No. 3 in 2019 and the next closest top scoring receiver was Chris Godwin all the way at No. 17. DeAndre Hopkins and Adams both made the cut in 2018 and Tyreek Hill was close behind at No. 12. The same goes for 2017, when Brown and Hopkins posted top-10 overall seasons and Keenan Allen finished 12th.
You have to go all the way back to 2016 to find a season in which three of the top 10 scorers played receiver: Brown, Jordy Nelson and Mike Evans accomplished that feat. But taking points per game into account, Brown would have finished as the WR4 behind Kupp, Adams and Samuel in 2021.
After years of decline, receivers are again making up a larger portion of the highest overall scorers in fantasy football, which explains the rising cost to draft the top projected performers at the position.
Kupp is currently the WR1 by ADP at No. 4 overall. Rounding out the first-round wideouts are Jefferson (6), Ja’Marr Chase (9), Adams (10) and Stefon Diggs (12). If Kupp’s ADP holds, he will become the highest-drafted receiver since Brown’s No. 3 ADP in 2017 (it peaked at No. 1 in 2016).
No receiver has had an ADP better than No. 5 over the last four years and the ADP of the earliest-drafted receiver has risen over that same period: Brown came off the board fifth in 2018, Hopkins went fifth in 2019, Thomas checked in at sixth in 2020 and Adams was sixth in 2021.
Not only is Kupp bucking that trend with such an early ADP, but the draft position of the WR2 (Jefferson) is matching that of the first receiver selected in recent years.
Kupp’s ADP has not spiked in the same manner Brown’s did at his peak, but his jump to lead the position is notable nonetheless given the recent lack of interest in early first-round wideouts.
It appears managers are drafting Kupp at his ceiling, but what a ceiling it is. SI Fantasy’s Michael Fabiano has Kupp ranked just above his ADP at No. 5 overall and he also has Jefferson one spot higher than ADP at No. 7. Don’t let the sticker price scare you away from taking not only a first-round receiver, but doing so early on.
