Consumer confidence increased for the sixth straight month in November, hitting a 20-month high, lifted by improved economic activity, an increase in foreign tourist arrivals and lower petrol prices.
The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) reported yesterday the consumer confidence index rose to 47.9 in November from 46.1 in October, 44.6 in September, 43.7 in August, 42.4 in July and 41.6 in June.
The index stood at 40.2 in May, 40.7 in April, 42 in March, 43.3 in February and 44.8 in January.
An index lower than 100 points reflects weak purchasing power based on a slow economic recovery.
Thanavath Phonvichai, president of the UTCC, said consumers felt the economy was recovering as Covid-19 infections had eased and pandemic curbs were phased out, allowing business activity to resume.
An increase in foreign tourist arrivals also resulted in more money circulating in the economy and increased transactions in regional areas, said Mr Thanavath.
More importantly, petrol prices have dropped from the first half of the year, easing consumer concerns about the cost of living and leading their sentiment to improve, he said.
Consumers are still concerned about the relatively high cost of living, the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war and the hike in interest rates in an effort to tame inflation by central banks around the world, which could hamper the global recovery, said Mr Thanavath.
"Despite a spate of risk factors, the Thai economy is on the path to recovery. The UTCC forecast GDP growth of 3.2-3.3% this year, with exports expanding by 7.1-7.2%, inflation at 6-6.1% and foreign arrivals at 10 million," he said.
"We believe tourism will improve in December, with a higher number of foreign arrivals boosting people's purchasing power and the overall economy."
As for next year, the UTCC forecasts the economy to grow by 3.5-4%, with export growth of 2-3% and 20-22 million foreign arrivals, which should improve consumer sentiment.
According to Mr Thanavath, spending for New Year's events is estimated to reach 100 billion baht, inching closer to the level reached before the pandemic of 120-130 billion.
In addition, he said the general election, which is expected to be held in the second quarter of next year, should generate at least 40 billion baht in spending, adding 0.4 to 0.6 percentage points to economic growth in 2023.
