The Conservatives could be wiped out in the North East at the next election, according to a new poll from a campaign group.
The poll by the 38 Degrees group in association with research company company Survation - using a method that correctly predicted 94% of seats at the 2019 General Election - shows the Tories losing all of their seats in Northumberland, Tyne and Wear, and County Durham. That would mean defeat for Transport Secretary Anne-Marie Trevelyan, as well as a reversal of the ‘Red Wall’ gains the party made in constituencies like Bishop Auckland, North West Durham and Blyth Valley less than three years ago.
The poll comes as fears over the cost-of-living increase, with the Survation polling showing that almost a third of people in the North East (32%) worry they might have to use a foodbank - the highest in the country - and 40% are concerned about not being able to pay their rent or mortgage. Despite the Government’s package of support for household energy bills, nearly two-thirds of people in the North East (64%) are scared they might not be able to pay their energy bills, while 65% think they might have to cut back on buying essentials like groceries. Both are the highest levels of concern anywhere in the UK.
Read more: council leader defends cost-of-living response
Matthew McGregor, CEO at 38 Degrees, said: “After a toxic first month in office and a mini-budget that’s caused maximum chaos, Liz Truss has destroyed the North East’s trust in her party. If an election were held tomorrow, the Tories would face an electoral catastrophe in the region, because they’ve left the country facing a cost of living catastrophe.
“With millions facing an impossible winter, the Prime Minister has not only failed to provide a real rescue plan for people, she has made the situation worse. Voters in the North East are not stupid: they can see the Government sabotaging our economy and their living standards so it’s no surprise this poll shows a humiliating collapse in support for the Conservatives.”
Damian Lyons Lowe, chief executive at Survation said: “These results show what would happen in an election tomorrow with the Labour party experiencing a 27 point lead over the Conservatives nationally. While the next general election is likely to be some two years away, these dramatic changes in comparison to the 2019 General Election show exactly how politically toxic the Conservatives’ recent moves have been.”
The 38 Degrees/Survation survey is the latest of a number of polls to show a significant lead for Labour following a tough year for the Government and a rocky first few weeks in power for Prime Minister Liz Truss.
After a party conference where differences in the party were frequently made public, four Cabinet ministers have urged colleagues to rally behind Liz Truss as the PM battles to steady the Tory ship. Home Secretary Suella Braverman, Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Nadhim Zahawi, Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt and Environment Secretary Ranil Jayawardena have all penned articles calling on the party to unite around its new leader or risk ending up in opposition.
But separate polling by Opinium for the Observer has put Ms Truss’s personal approval rating at minus 47, and Mr Kwarteng’s at minus 51.
With the Government not having to have a General Election for another two years, the Conservatives will be hoping to turn around public opinion as they focus on their growth agenda.
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