On the face of it, the Conservatives would expect to once again dominate Ayr West as they have done since the ward was created in 2007.
Ayr West returned three Conservatives in 2017 and the party has only dipped below 50 per cent of the first preference votes once, in 2012, when it fielded two rather than three candidates.
With the Tories in opposition and many of the most contentious issues in South Ayrshire arising in the ward, voters could be expected to deliver a thumbs down to the SNP and Labour administration.
The state of Ayr High Street, the ongoing Station Hotel debacle and the development of a new leisure centre are all issues that you would expect to see front and centre.
However, most voters appear to be thinking in broader terms when it comes to their concerns.
Like Girvan and Prestwick, the subjects of the previous election specials, the town centre is a priority – albeit on a much larger scale.
More than 25 High Street stores and unit are either empty or have ‘to let’ or sale signs.
It is a subject that can often frustrate, with the administration often at pains to point to the limit of the council’s tools to improve matters.
However, the decade long attempts to fill the gap site at the west end of the High Street, the closure of the Kyle Centre and the negative perception of the town, has seemingly embedded a sense of resignation in some local people.
To them, the situation with the leisure centre and Station Hotel is part of that wider malaise.
It has lead to a split in how the town is viewed. Some look at the issues as problems to address individually, while others insist that each element is dependent on the others.
For the SNP and Labour administration, this means that any issues with building a leisure centre with fewer facilities is counterbalanced by the positive impact they say it will have on the town centre as a whole.
Critics question this calculation, claiming that the benefit to the town will not be borne out.
The ward is also home to Wallacetown, one of the most deprived areas in the west of Scotland, along with many affluent areas, highlighting the disparity of South Ayrshire’s communities.
The demolition of the High Flats at Riverside Place has also been a heated subject, but was not one raised by local people.
All three Conservative incumbents will seek re-election. However, the SNP will stand two new candidates – husband and wife George and Margaret Weir. Previous SNP councillor Siobhian Brown was elected to the Scottish Parliament last May, continuing as a councillor until her resignation in January this year.
With recent polls indicating Labour may be taking votes from the Conservatives, the most likely battle will be whether the Tories can maintain their third councillor or whether Labour can regain the seat they won in both 2007 and 2012.
The Candidates
Gordon Bryce (Scottish Family Party), Martin Dowey (CON), John Duncan (LAB), Lee Lyons (CON), Derek McCabe (CON), Jamie Ross (LIB DEM), Bob Shields (IND), George Weir (SNP), Margaret Weir (SNP).
Elections 2007 – 2017
In recent times, Ayr has provided the majority of MPs and MSPs for Ayrshire
Indeed, the Ayr West ward would see one of the successful candidates in 2017, the SNP’s Siobhian Brown, win a seat at the Scottish Parliament before the end of her first term.
Colleague Allan Dorans faced the surprise loss of his council seat at the same election. He would go on to secure one of the 48 seats won by the SNP in the 2019 General Election.
Ayr West had also been Conservative MP Bill Grant’s area prior to his election to Westminster.
The 2017 council election also featured a former SNP MSP, Chic Brodie, who had become independent in the interim.
The Conservatives stood three candidates for Ayr West in 2017 and 2007. Having only picked up two seats in 2007, they had reduced the number of candidates to two.
The 2017 election demonstrated the level of risk and reward facing parties who want to stand three candidates. Current Conservative group leader Martin Dowey picked up almost 39 percent of the first preference votes, around 25 percent higher than the next highest return from SNP member Siobhian Brown on 15.5 percent.
The figure dropped drastically for the other Conservative candidates Lee Lyons and Derek McCabe, who picked up 11.3 percent and 8.3 percent of the first preference votes respectively. Labour candidate Liz Martin actually split the two, coming ahead of Derek McCabe with 11.1% of the first preferences. However, this didn’t prevent the Conservative member from picking up the final seat.
The Conservatives picked up almost 60 percent of the overall Ayr West first preferences, with a 26 percent gap to the SNP in second. However, in 2007 they had to make do with two seats despite gaining 55 percent of the first preferences and having a similar lead (25 percent) over the SNP.
The question in May will be whether the margin required to pick up the third seat is this narrow and whether the current polling, which indicates a shift from the Conservatives to Labour, will play a part.
Ayr West
Martin Dowey (CON) 38.7%
Siobhian Brown (SNP) 15.5%
Lee Lyons (CON) 12.3%
Liz Martin (LAB) 11.1%
Derek McCabe (CON) 8.3%
Allan Dorans (SNP) 7.9%
Chic Brodie (IND) 6.2%
2012
Bill Grant (CON) 33.83%
Kirst Darwent (LAB) 15.3%
Robin Reid (CON) 14.37%
Allan Dorans (SNP) 14.19%
Roddy Macdonald (SNP) 10.83%
Brian McKinlay (IND) 9.32%
Nicola Prigg (LIB) 2.16%
2007
Bill Grant (CON) 30.3%
MIke Peddie (SNP) 20.9%
Elaine Little (LAB) 16.9%
Robin Reid (CON) 15.7%
Alistair Kerr (CON) 8.8%
Ian McCabe (IND) 7.5%
Elaine Little resigned from Labour in 2008 and sat as an independent from then until February 2012 when she joined the SNP.
Party first preferences
2017
CON 59.3%
SNP 23.4%
LAB 11.1%
IND 6.2%
2012
CON 47.2%
SNP 25.02%
LAB 15.3%
IND 9.32%
LIB 2.16%
2007
CON 54.8%
SNP 20.9%
LAB 16.9%
IND 7.5%
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