The chairman of the Conservative Party has insisted the Welsh Conservatives are "absolutely" a government-in-waiting despite polling data showing Labour would get almost double the vote share in a Senedd election.
Speaking to WalesOnline at the Welsh Conservative Party conference in Newport on Saturday, Greg Hands MP cited the "record-largest Senedd team for the Conservatives," as evidence of Tory success in Wales and added: "Andrew RT Davies has got a great team, really capable people."
Mr Davies' style as Tory leader has involved a sudden pivot to a provocative and "downright bizarre" style on social media which was divisive among the party members we spoke to, some of whom said "senior figures in the party are getting fed up with his embarrassing and erratic behaviour."
Despite this, Mr Hands said he had "complete confidence" in Mr Davies' leadership, adding: "I think the Welsh Conservative party really has flourished under Andrew RT Davies."
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On whether Mr Davies is able to regain the middle ground in Wales, Mr Hands said "the figures speak for themselves... I remember the days in 1997, 2001, where there was no Conservative MP at all in Wales, now we've got 13 and a record number of Senedd members."
In February, a YouGov poll for WalesOnline showed the Conservatives would be close to wiped out in a general election. A previous YouGov poll from December showed Welsh Labour had its largest lead in nearly a decade, with Tory support in Wales tumbling. We walked Mr Hands through some more recent polls by Redfield & Wilton Strategies in which the Conservatives' predicted general election vote share in Wales had fallen to 24% (from 36% at the 2019 election), and almost double the number of people said they'd vote for Labour in their Senedd constituency (41%) than the Tories or Plaid Cymru (21% and 20% respectively).
Despite this data showing how far the Welsh Conservatives may be from overtaking Labour, Mr Hands said: "The figures I like are actual elections rather than necessarily opinion polls. The actual elections have shown the Welsh Conservatives doing very well.
"Having said that, we don't dispute the fact that it's been a difficult time for our party with the electorate across the UK in 2022, but people see in Rishi Sunak a Conservative Prime Minister who is performing well and delivering.
"He's delivering on his five priorities; halving inflation, restoring growth, reducing debt, cutting hospital waiting lists and stopping the boats." Mr Hands said "those are the people's priorities as well," also citing Mr Sunak delivering the Windsor Framework, the recent Budget and plans for a defence partnership with the USA and Australia.
Challenged again on whether he was worried Mr Sunak's impact hadn't been as great as this, given the polling data showing the Conservatives would lose votes in Wales in a general election, he said: "I've been going up and down the country, and I've yet to find a doorstep where the conversation is not improved by mentioning Rishi Sunak."
Mr Hands acknowledged he hadn't been to any doorsteps in Wales recently as there are no council elections coming up in Wales next month, compared to many in England, but added: "I will expect to be out on the doorstep as soon as the local elections in England are out of the way. I expect quite often during the rest of this year as we've got some key battlegrounds and some brilliant Welsh Conservative MPs to come and defend."
Mr Hands said the tone of the conference had been "really upbeat," adding: "I think the Welsh Conservatives are in good heart and ready for the battles ahead... [with] obviously the general eection expected next year, the Senedd election in 2026."
On policy, he said the Welsh Tories needed to focus on council tax and public services, adding: "On basic public services, the delivery in the NHS has been poor and that has been the case for a long time. That's not a good record that Welsh Labour has got.
"On education, [Wales is] the poorest-performing part of the UK when it comes to education standards. I think Welsh Labour have let down Wales for 25 years now... I think the people of Wales are looking for change and looking for the Conservatives at the Senedd."
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