Barring a surprise, Congress and its elected leaders are on track to give President Trump the equivalent of a green light ahead of a potential major war in the Middle East.
Why it matters: War Powers Act resolutions, including one that Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) intends to force next week, are meant to restrain the president.
- But House Democrats appear short of the Republican support they would need to pass a symbolic resolution against Trump.
- An early defeat of one in either chamber could make it easier for Trump to let slip the dogs of war.
The big picture: A U.S. campaign against Iran could drag out for weeks, sources have told Axios' Barak Ravid.
- "I think there is 90% chance we see kinetic action in the next few weeks," one Trump adviser told Axios.
- The U.S. has deployed a massive buildup in the region: two aircraft carriers and hundreds of fighter jets are on hand.
Zoom in: Besides Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), no House Republicans have said they plan to support a war powers vote on Iran.
- Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), who supported the last war powers effort on Venezuela, told us he plans to vote against this one.
- "Republicans are afraid of the president," Massie told Axios.
Between the lines: House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) can only afford to lose two of his members if he wants to defeat the War Powers vote, assuming full attendance.
- Johnson held last month's vote open for roughly 30 minutes as members waited for Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) — running for Senate in his home state — to arrive from Dulles International Airport to cast the deciding vote.
- Hunt's office declined to comment on whether he'd show up to vote next week. If Massie and Khanna wait until Tuesday to call up their resolution, the vote could slip to March 3 — the day of the Texas primaries.
The other side: In the Senate, there doesn't appear to be much movement to vote on a war powers resolution before missiles are actually flying.
- Sens. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) and Rand Paul (R-Ky.) introduced a WPA resolution on Jan. 29.
What we're watching: Trump is considering ordering limited strikes to force Iran to the negotiating table, according to the Wall Street Journal.
- Such an incremental approach might convince Kaine and Paul to demand a vote on their resolution, forcing the Senate to go on the record in the early stages of a conflict.
