Whatever else the pundits are saying about the use of cyberattacks in the Ukraine war, Dave Aitel notes, they all believe it confirms their past predictions about cyberwar. And in fact, not much has been surprising about the cyber weapons the parties have deployed, Scott Shapiro agrees. The Ukrainians have been doxxing Russia's soldiers in Bucha and its spies around the world. The Russians have been attacking Ukraine's grid. What's surprising is that the grid attacks have not seriously degraded civilian life, plus how hard the Russians have had to work to have any effect at all. Cyberwar isn't a bust, exactly, but it is looking a little overhyped. In fact, Scott suggests, it's more like a confession of weakness than of strength: "My military attack isn't up to the job, so I'll throw in some fancy cyberweapons to impress The Boss."
Would it have more impact in the U.S.? We can't know until the Russians (or someone else) gives it a try. We should certainly have a plan for responding, and Dmitri Alperovitch and Sam Charap have offered theirs: Shut down Russia's internet for a few hours just to show we can. It's better than no plan, but we're not ready to say it's the right plan, given its limited impact and high cost in terms of exploits exposed.
Much more surprising, and therefore more interesting, is the way Ukrainian mobile phone networks have become an essential part of Ukrainian defense. As discussed in a good blog post, Ukraine has made it easy for civilians to keep using their phones without paying, no matter where they travel in the country and no matter which network they find there. At the same time, Russian soldiers are finding that the network is a dangerous honeypot. Dave and I think there are lessons there for emergency administration of phone networks in other countries.
