Welcome to FTW Explains, a guide to catching up on and better understanding stuff going on in the world. Are you wondering what’s going on with the madness that is the latest round of college football realignment, especially as it relates to the Pac-12? We’re here to help.
We are just weeks away from kicking off the 2023 college football season, but right now, what should be an exciting time for the sport has largely been overshadowed by far more existential concerns.
The respective moves of Oklahoma and Texas moving to the SEC and USC and UCLA joining the Big Ten in 2024 proved to be the first signs of trouble in a rapidly shifting college football landscape, and the dam finally broke this week.
With the demise of the Pac-12 seemingly on the horizon, teams are searching for safe harbor in one of the three stable power conferences: the SEC, Big Ten and Big 12.
Much is still up to speculation, but here’s a rundown of everything we know so far as it relates to the latest round of conference realignment.
This story has been updated.
Who has officially left the Pac-12?
Last week, Colorado became the first — and so far, only — domino to officially fall in the realignment sweepstakes. After receiving approval from the Big 12 members, Colorado’s Board of Regents held a special meeting in which they voted unanimously to join the conference, which commissioner Brett Yormark confirmed with a Michael Jordan-esque press release.
But with the Buffs on board, the Big 12 then turned its attention to the remainder of the so-called “Four Corner” schools: Arizona, Arizona State and Utah, which had long been rumored to be potential targets.
Which team will be the next to leave the Pac-12?
Right now, the safe bet would appear to be Arizona.
According to ESPN’s Pete Thamel, the Big 12 formally voted to approve Arizona’s membership on Thursday night, paving the way for the Wildcats to join Colorado in the Big 12.
The Arizona Board of Regents — which oversees the University of Arizona, Arizona State and Northern Arizona — met in an executive session Thursday night, presumably to discuss the move. Though nothing was seemingly finalized at that meeting, the Wildcats are expected to make the jump, barring any unexpected developments.
The league has also courted the other two Four Corner schools in Arizona State and Utah, though both are taking more time to decide. According to Thamel, Arizona State president Michael Crow was a staunch supporter of the Pac-12 and former commissioner Larry Scott.
According to 247Sports’ Brandon Marcello, Crow was initially on board with the proposed new media rights deal when it was presented, but things later changed.
Both Thamel and Action Network’s Brett McMurphy report that talks between the Big 12 and Arizona State and Utah have increased, and it’s becoming more likely that both will follow suit behind Arizona.
What about the Big Ten's courting of Oregon and Washington?
While anxiety within the Pac-12 was already high, it reached a fever pitch on Wednesday when reports started leaking that the Big Ten would be pursuing Oregon and Washington (as well as potentially California and Stanford).
Friday morning was a key moment for the future of the Pac-12, and there was a good amount of optimism that the league would ensure its survival by signing the new grant of rights deal.
That didn’t happen.
A potential deal fell through, and hours later, McMurphy reported that Oregon and Washington would indeed leave the Pac-12 for the Big Ten. There has been no official announcement from either team, but it seems that one is likely coming sooner rather than later.
What does this mean for the rest of the Pac-12?
The short answer is that things are pretty bleak.
Assuming Arizona State and Utah ultimately choose to follow Arizona and Colorado to the Big 12, and that reports of Oregon and Washington’s departures are true, that would leave the Pac-12 with just four member schools: Oregon State, Washington State, California and Stanford.
The Big Ten has apparently backed off of pursuing Cal and Stanford, but regardless, these schools seem to be in danger of getting left behind.
There isn’t a clear-cut answer for how they would move forward, unfortunately. A possible merger with the Mountain West or even football independence for the more academic-focused California schools seems like a real possibility.
I wish I could offer a more inspiring message here to fans of these four teams, but right now, they seem to be the biggest causality of the growing influence of television money in college football.
Where does all this chaos leave the ACC?
Oh yeah, I almost forgot about the ACC.
The league has been notoriously spared from the latest round of realignment havoc to this point, and there’s a reason for that. Unlike the rest of the Power Five conferences, which have all had to renegotiate media rights deals in recent years, the ACC’s contract is locked in for quite a while.
The current grant of rights runs until 2036, and breaking that contract early would come at a high price, likely at least nine figures.
That price tag has proven to be a major obstacle for teams like Florida State and Clemson, which may have ambitions to leave the ACC behind.
The former seems to be getting particularly antsy. At a Board of Trustees meeting, one trustee likened remaining in the ACC to a “death by 1,000 cuts” if the league refused to adopt an unequal revenue-sharing model for the top-performing programs. The day before, board chairman Peter Collins said the grant of rights wouldn’t prevent Florida State from leaving the conference if it wanted to.
“That will not be the document that keeps us from taking action.” — Florida State board chair Peter Collins to @Warchant on Tuesday talking about the ACC grant of rights.@JCameronShow joined to break down what that means.https://t.co/3zd5cTgVrD pic.twitter.com/132czexE2f
— Andy Staples (@Andy_Staples) August 2, 2023
The school may take some creative steps to speed up its departure, and on Friday, a report from Sportico indicated that the Florida State had tabbed private equity firm J.P. Morgan to help raise money, potentially for its reported $120 million exit fee from the ACC.
Regardless, the grant of rights deal presents a significant impediment for any ACC program looking to get in on the realignment game.
Update 8/4: Oregon and Washington officially join Big Ten, Four Corner schools apply for Big 12 membership
The well of new information didn’t stop on Friday afternoon, and the Big Ten officially confirmed the additions of Oregon and Washington in a press release.
INBOX: University of Oregon and University of Washington to Join Big Ten Conference in 2024 pic.twitter.com/yTzlB32m0C
— Nicole Auerbach (@NicoleAuerbach) August 4, 2023
That left the Pac-12 at six members officially, though that is likely to decrease again soon. The Athletic’s Max Olson reports that Arizona State and Utah have now joined Arizona in formally applying for Big 12 membership.
Arizona, Arizona State and Utah have formally applied for Big 12 membership, sources confirm to @TheAthletic.
Big 12 meeting tonight to make this a done deal. Story from @skhanjr and me: https://t.co/zMmfSAYcE6
— Max Olson (@max_olson) August 4, 2023
The Big 12 members will meet Friday night for a vote to finalize the decision.
Update 8/4 (Again): Arizona, Arizona State and Utah officially join Big 12
We didn’t have to wait long for even more news on Friday night as the Big 12 formally voted to approve Arizona, Arizona State and Utah as new members of the conference.
This will put the league at 16 teams entering the 2024 season.
Big 12 Conference Adds Arizona, Arizona State and Utah pic.twitter.com/Or4ypfW7d8
— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) August 5, 2023
This leaves the Pac-12 officially with only four members beyond the 2023 season in Oregon State, Washington State, California and Stanford.
