The Six Nations is just around the corner and there is mounting evidence to suggest it will be even more cutthroat than ever. The Champions Cup is not a surefire guide to Six Nations supremacy but it is a timely gauge of the prevailing mood in certain nations. Some of this weekend’s results, not least victories for Ospreys and Edinburgh over Leicester and Saracens respectively, would suggest that cross-border margins continue to shrink.
At first glance the presence of five English sides, three apiece from Ireland, France and South Africa and one each from Wales and Scotland in the Champions Cup last 16 might seem encouraging for the new England head coach Steve Borthwick, who will be keen to see plenty of English-qualified players contesting big games for their clubs in early April.
Dig a little deeper, though, and the head coach who should perhaps be the happiest is Warren Gatland following Ospreys’ qualification for the knockout stages for the first time since 2010. Perhaps best of all was how they did it, with their 23-year-old back-rower Jac Morgan a stand-out dynamo in the 27-26 win over the Tigers. and Justin Tipuric also underlining his wide-ranging ability.
When you also consider that Ospreys, under the guidance of the estimable Toby Booth, saw off the French champions Montpellier home and away, it offers welcome respite from the off-field turbulence which may see many prominent Welsh players move elsewhere to play their club rugby next season. Wales’ opening game against Ireland remains difficult but last autumn’s widespread gloom is already showing signs of lifting.
Everything is relative, with Leinster, La Rochelle and Toulouse still looking like the best three current non-international sides in Europe. All three have eased unbeaten into the next stage of the Champions Cup and all three will have home draws in the last 16. Having finished in the top two in their respective pools, last season’s finalists are again in pole position to claim home advantage in the quarters as well. Leinster, assuming they keep winning, can now become champions without leaving their fair home city, a major advantage in anyone’s language.
But if the best of Ireland and France still twinkle there are enough flickers of decent form elsewhere to make the next two months fascinating. All eight qualifiers from the United Rugby Championship, for example, have advanced compared with just three of the Top 14’s eight contenders. While that may partly be a consequence of French rugby having other priorities later this year, Benetton Treviso’s weekend Challenge Cup win over Stade Francais continued the trend.
The qualification of all three leading South African sides at their first attempt should also make the last 16 even more hard-fought. If the truncated two-pool structure has drained some of the colour from the qualifying process, it is also the case that some fancied sides have failed to make the cut. Farewell, then, to Racing 92, Bordeaux, Clermont Auvergne and Sale who collectively managed just three wins in 16 outings.
The lower-ranked Premiership sides, similarly, have again found the step up tough. London Irish and Northampton both lost all four of their games – even if the Exiles did lead Montpellier 21-0 in their final fixture before the hosts roared back to draw 21-21 – and when La Rochelle’s head coach, Ronan O’Gara, referred to the Saints as “not a top side” after the defending champions’ 31-13 win at Franklin’s Gardens he was merely stating the literal truth.
Bath and Newcastle have also failed to qualify for the latter stages of the Challenge Cup and even Exeter, having nailed down a home draw courtesy of their 40-3 victory over Castres on Saturday evening, will know they must greatly improve their set piece consistency if they are to cope with Montpellier at Sandy Park.
Leinster v Ulster
Exeter v Montpellier
Sharks v Munster
Saracens v Ospreys
Leicester v Edinburgh
Stormers v Harlequins
Toulouse v Bulls
La Rochelle v Gloucester
Ties to be played March 31 to April 2
Saracens were beaten 20-14 in a feisty game against Edinburgh at the DAM Heath Stadium, with the England duo of Jamie George and Elliot Daly forced off with injuries and Mako Vunipola pulling out in the warmup. They will now host Ospreys in the last 16.
George could even be a doubt for England’s Six Nations opener after suffering a suspected concussion resulting from a high tackle on Luke Crosbie which resulted in a head-on-head collision. He faces a minimum seven-day stand-down period, with England starting their Six Nations campaign against Scotland on 4 February.
“I don’t know exactly what happened,” said Saracens director of rugby Mark McCall. “It appears that Jamie passed his HIA (head injury assessment) and someone has had a further look at it and thought it better that he were withdrawn from the game.
“And, of course, that’s the right decision.”
Edinburgh, meanwhile, will now have to try their luck at Leicester while Munster’s fluctuating, hard-fought 20-16 defeat in Toulouse has earned them a long journey to Durban to face the Sharks. Of the other English survivors, Gloucester will be doing extremely well if they can unseat Toulouse away from home. Despite a fine Munster try finished by Tadhg Beirne, the home side’s strength in depth eventually told with England’s Jack Willis again catching the eye in the back row.
Harlequins, despite their vibrant five-try victory over the Sharks on Saturday, face a second trip to South Africa inside four months, this time to play the Stormers in Cape Town. Should Leicester reach the last eight, meanwhile, they will probably end up facing Leinster, who beat them well at the same stage at Welford Road last season. If more than one Premiership club reach the last four, it will be a good effort in increasingly competitive times.
