This was a fun exercise: Pro Football Focus analysts Mike Renner and Gordon McGuinness each published three-round mock drafts this week, giving us an opportunity to compare and contrast their picks for the New Orleans Saints.
Things started off on the same page, but we went off the rails by round three. Here’s a quick look at where each projection agrees and disagrees on what the Saints should do on draft day, and where they both went wrong:
Round 1
Renner picks: DT Mazi Smith, Michigan
McGuinness picks: DT Calijah Kancey, Pittsburgh
Both projections have the Saints addressing their top need at defensive tackle, but they went about it in wildly different ways. Smith is a heavyset nose tackle much like Khalen Saunders, weighing in at 6-foot-3 and 323 pounds with 33.7-inch arms — he plays with a lot of violence and uses his greater length to frustrate blockers as they struggle to put paws on him.
Compare that to Kancey, who is notoriously undersized by pro standards at 6-foot-1 and 281 pounds, with arms measuring just 30.6 inches. That’s not just beneath the Saints’ average for the position; it doesn’t hit the minimums they’ve looked for over the last five years. He’s a fleet-footed disruptor up front who uses his speed to split blockers before they can get to their spots.
Kancey probably better fits what the Saints are looking for in an athletic playmaker who can line up at the three-technique spot. But Smith is arguably a better prospect given his larger frame and strength in run defense, with potential to grow as a pass rusher. There’s a case to be made for either of them.
Round 2
Renner picks: WR Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee
McGuinness picks: LB Daiyan Henley, Washington State
Now things diverge. Renner has the Saints adding more firepower on offense in Hyatt, who broke out in a big way last season; he’s a deep threat with speed for days, but he hasn’t shown he can run a variety of routes with great success. The Saints are hosting Hyatt on a pre-draft visit soon to get a better idea of where his ceiling may sit.
McGuinness has an interesting pick. Henley is one of the most athletic linebackers in this draft class, having timed the 40-yard dash in 4.54 seconds at 225 pounds. He also did well in his jumps, and that explosive ability is clear to see on his game tape. Teams have taken advantage of him in coverage but he’s produced well as a pass rusher, and he’s very effective in run defense.
Out of these two options, we’d probably go with Henley. Hyatt doesn’t offer anything the Saints don’t already have in Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. Henley adds athleticism to the depth chart at linebacker and he has a lot of experience running with the special teams units. With quality coaching he can compete for a starting job once Demario Davis is ready to call it a career.
Round 3
Renner picks: LB Nick Herbig, Wisconsin
McGuinness picks: QB Tanner McKee, Stanford
Linebacker is a bit of a need for New Orleans. Pete Werner has missed some time with injuries through his first two years, leaving Demario Davis as the only reliable player on the depth chart with much experience. So to that end, it would make sense to target Herbig in the third round of Renner’s mock draft. Like Henley, he has experience on special teams, but more importantly he’s been very effective as a pass rusher off the edge (and he has good size at 6-foot-2 and 240 pounds).
But that brings us to McKee. PFF has been propagandizing his draft stock for too long, confusing his bad habit of checking the ball down too short of the sticks for quick processing and a fast trigger. He isn’t a starting-quality passer and shouldn’t be considered in the top three rounds of this year’s draft.
Honestly neither of these picks would be good for New Orleans. Herbig is the exact kind of player that the Saints already don’t know how to use in Zack Baun. McKee would be a waste of a roster spot behind Derek Carr and Jameis Winston, with little growth potential in his game. Both analysts need to take this round back to the drawing board.
