Embracing a more ambitious treaty platform could help Labor retain inner-city seats under threat from the Greens at next month’s Victorian election without costing outer suburban votes, according to a new poll.
The polling comes ahead of a landmark agreement between the Andrews government and the First Peoples’ Assembly of Victoria on the final elements of the state’s treaty framework, which is expected to be announced before the election campaign begins in earnest on 1 November.
The Redbridge polling was commissioned by the assembly – the body elected to develop the treaty framework – and was conducted last month.
RedBridge director Kos Samaras, a former Victorian Labor strategist, said the results offered a chance for the party to spruik its progressive credentials to voters.
“Labor has significant issues with young people, particularly under the age of 30, in seats like Richmond, Albert Park and Northcote, and one way they could remedy some of the perception … that this government is not progressive enough on climate or Indigenous rights, is to take further steps in that direction,” he told Guardian Australia.
The polling of 839 people in the Labor-held electorates of Albert Park, Footscray, Northcote, Preston and Richmond found 64% of Greens voters said the Andrews government’s “progress on a treaty with Aboriginal people” would make them “more likely” to vote for Labor.
Northcote – held on 1.7% margin – and Richmond – held on a 5.8% margin – are priorities for the Greens, who believe they are winnable.
The polling also found 63.5% of voters in the Labor heartland seats of Melton, Narre Warren North, and Pakenham, Point Cook and Werribee wanted the Andrews government to be “more ambitious” on advancing the treaty process with First Nations Victorians.
The poll surveyed 863 voters in the outer-suburban electorates and found 90% of those intending to vote for Labor said the Andrews government’s support for the treaty process would not make them any less likely to vote for the party.
There are fears within Labor that it could lose ground in the western suburbs after a decline in support for the major parties in the area at the May federal election.
It has made retaining Melton a priority, but the party also has to fend off a challenge from an independent candidate, Joe Garra, in neighbouring Point Cook.
Samaras said the results dispelled the perception within the party that focusing on progressive social issues during an election campaign would harm its chances in outer-suburban electorates, where cost of living pressures were likely to be more front of mind.
“Historically there’s always been this caution of not being bold on progressive issues in the middle of an election campaign, because you’ll be perceived as being indulgent on one issue and ignoring another. What this finding shows is that, no, voters want you to do both,” Samaras said.
Victoria is the only jurisdiction in Australia to have enacted the treaty and truth-telling components of the 2017 Uluru Statement from the Heart – with the federal government committing to act on both.
The Greens’ Indigenous election platform, released this week, includes giving traditional owners rights to veto proposed developments that would threaten culturally significant sites.
Co-chair of the First Peoples’ Assembly Marcus Stewart said the polling demonstrated a “huge appetite” for Victoria’s treaty platform.
“We’ve always found that there’s a real desire in the wider community to address the injustices that have been inflicted on First Peoples,” he said.
“Most people recognise that treaty is a practical way to drive structural reform to improve the lives of Aboriginal people.”
A spokesperson for the Victorian government said it was working closely with the First Peoples’ Assembly to establish a self-determination fund – a financial resource to help Indigenous groups enter into treaty negotiations and build wealth – and finalise the treaty negotiation framework.
