The last time a U.S. speaker of the house met Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, the visit prompted extensive blowback in China. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA), as China’s military is formally called, responded briskly, conducting days of military exercises around the self-governed island. These were no normal military exercises either. PLA ships and aircraft surrounded Taiwan at six separate points in what could only be described as a dress rehearsal for a hypothetical blockade. Missiles were launched over the island, with some of them landing in Japan’s exclusive economic zone.
Tsai’s expected meeting with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California this week isn’t expected to generate the same kind of military retaliation from the PLA — a high-ranking politician traveling to Taiwan is more provocative to Beijing than a Taiwanese president doing the same on U.S. soil. After all, multiple Taiwanese presidents have made brief stopovers to the United States on their way to other destinations. Flying to the U.S. isn’t some new development for Tsai either; this will be the seventh trip during her presidency.
The difference with Tsai’s current trip, however, is that it comes at a time when U.S.-China relations are at their most perilous since the two countries established formal diplomatic ties almost 45 years ago. Washington and Beijing spent decades flirting with each other as partners and possible friends. Now, the terms “partners” and “friends” aren’t even in the vocabulary. Strategic competition has replaced strategic empathy.
