Since conservative Yoon Suk Yeol became president of South Korea eight months ago, North Korea has drastically increased military provocations. In an incident last month, at least five North Korean drones freely crossed into South Korea’s airspace. One drone infiltrated the northern end of a no-fly zone surrounding the president’s office. Many South Koreans fear that the North’s heightened aggression is a precursor to a second Korean War.
Putting the Korean fear into perspective leads me to think of what factors may incentivize the North to have a direct military confrontation with the South. There are three factors that could lead to a heightened conflict.
The first is Russia’s military success in Ukraine. At the moment, Vladimir Putin appears to be not very successful in the Russia-Ukraine war. However, if Putin can control four regions of Ukraine — Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia — that were annexed by Russia last September, he may claim victory and likely gain popular approval for his mission to rectify perceived injustices and regain lost Russian lands and Russian communities.
