If you told me a year ago that the Russian army would be performing as incompetently in Ukraine as it is today, I would have responded with a sarcastic chuckle. And yet, 12 months into Europe’s bloodiest conflict since World War II, this is precisely what has occurred. The Ukrainians have made mincemeat of the Russians, evident in last year’s successful counteroffensives south of Kharkiv and in Kherson. The United Kingdom Defense Ministry estimates that as many as 60,000 Russian troops have been killed, more than four times what the Soviet Army lost during its decadeslong misadventure in Afghanistan.
The war in Ukraine, which reaches its one-year mark on Friday, has surprised in more ways than one. Two in particular stand out.
First and foremost, we’ve learned that Russian President Vladimir Putin isn’t some superhuman with unbounded leadership qualities or an unlimited capacity to throw his opponents off-kilter. This has become blazingly clear over the past 12 months, but it wasn’t always so obvious. Before he plunged Russia into a war of choice, Putin was as much vilified in the West as he was envied for his ability to keep rivals in check, exploit situations as they come and enhance Russia’s power. Longtime Russia experts in Washington warned U.S. policymakers not to underestimate Putin’s craftiness, while senior lawmakers at the time talked him up as a man who was “running circles” around the United States with the niftiness and patience of the judo master Putin claims to be.
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