War is contagious. Instability breeds more instability when war destabilizes a regional power. This is what appears to be happening now to Russia’s south. From Armenia to Tajikistan, conflict and discord are escalating to dangerous levels just as Russia appears at its weakest point in its war.
With Russia overextended in Ukraine, states in Russia’s sphere of influence are predictably becoming less stable as those who have been under Vladimir Putin’s thumb see an opportunity to punch back.
Russia’s power projection has been a source of both meddling and stability across these regions. Even as he has stoked separatist movements in countries that he deemed too independent, Putin has largely succeeded in keeping a lid on major transborder conflicts.
