Most Americans view nuclear weapons as a relic of the Cold War. President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev agreed in 1985 “that a nuclear war can never be won and must never be fought.” That thinking has remained a “given” for the last 37 years. Unfortunately, Russian President Vladimir Putin may have other ideas.
Just five days before Russia invaded Ukraine, Putin personally oversaw nuclear exercises and issued subtle nuclear threats against the West should Ukraine become a part of NATO. Once his war begun, the threats became less subtle. More recently, Putin ordered his nuclear forces on high alert. While the Pentagon reports it has not detected significant changes in Russia’s nuclear posture, Putin’s nuclear muscle flexing has prompted concern over how far he will go.
A Russian nuclear attack on Ukraine — or worse, against a NATO state — is unlikely. Doing so would break a 75-year nuclear taboo while completely alienating the rest of the world from Russia. But the chances are not zero, either. The U.S. must take the threat seriously.
