As Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to suffer humiliating battlefield defeats, his growing desperation may lead him to conclude that Russian-backed terrorist attacks against Western countries are a legitimate response. Attacks could be directed toward European military targets, NATO-related facilities or even civilians. Russia’s conduct in Ukraine, Syria and Chechnya has demonstrated that for Putin, nothing is beyond the pale.
As Russia’s ill-fated war in Ukraine continues to sputter, there are serious concerns over how Putin might respond. To deflect from how the war is affecting Russian citizens — Putin recently called for the mobilization of 300,000 civilians — Moscow has tried to frame the conflict as being between Russia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, not Russia and Ukraine.
Because NATO countries have been supplying Ukraine’s military with weaponry and training its soldiers, the Kremlin has engaged in nuclear saber-rattling against them, raising concerns that Russia could use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine. But the more likely scenario, and one several rungs down on the escalation ladder, would be direct attacks on Western soil. Russia might seek to conduct acts of sabotage against NATO supply lines in Poland or Romania.
