Speaking with a French business owner in the energy industry this fall, I asked whether he thought NATO’s full support for Ukraine in its war against Russia would wane or fracture this winter. He replied matter-of-factly, “It depends on how cold it gets.”
That’s unnerving. Russian President Vladimir Putin is clearly hoping a shortage of oil and gas caused by his war of choice against Ukraine will erode support in Europe for Ukrainians as high heating costs challenge people here trying to wean themselves off Russian energy supplies.
With Putin’s unprovoked, brutal, criminal war dragging into its ninth month, NATO’s resolve may be tested as never before by the impact of winter and soaring fuel prices. Europeans are already concerned about troubling signs that America’s resolve could weaken as voters head into volatile midterm elections. That would be tragic.
“This is no time to go wobbly,” as then-British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher famously told then-President George H.W. Bush in 1990 after Iraq invaded Kuwait and Bush was strategizing with the “Iron Lady” on plans that ultimately led to the 1991 Persian Gulf War.
President Joe Biden has demonstrated laudable resolve, effective diplomacy and strong leadership in unifying NATO and helping it stand firm in the face of Putin’s murderous attacks on Ukraine. Whatever outcomes emerge from the midterms, shame on America if politicians on the right or left undermine that critical work in the months ahead.
If Republicans retake the House after the Nov. 8 election, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., could become speaker, and he has already signaled he would go wobbly on Ukraine, declaring the U.S. can no longer give Ukraine “a blank check.” A growing number of Republicans are questioning whether the U.S. should continue to commit tens of billions in humanitarian and security assistance to Ukraine without stricter oversight, as Americans suffer from soaring inflation.
That’s worrisome enough for Ukraine. Even some Democrats have called for Biden to move toward more direct negotiations with Russia to find compromise. A letter to Biden from 30 progressive Democrats — drafted in the summer and sent, surprisingly, to the president Oct. 24 — was abruptly withdrawn a day later. Rep. Pramila Jayapal, D-Calif., chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, said the letter’s release was a mistake, and she underscored Democrats’ unequivocal support for U.S. economic and military aid to Ukraine.
Even billionaire Elon Musk, founder of SpaceX, said it wasn’t reasonable for SpaceX to continue paying the $100 million tab for donating 20,000 Starlink terminals to Kyiv, supporting communication for civilians and soldiers across Ukraine. The system has helped Ukraine manage critical battlefield communications during the war, but the company wants the Pentagon or others to reimburse costs, which SpaceX has borne up until now.
While Republicans and Democrats so far overwhelmingly have supported Ukraine in defending freedom and democracy against tyranny, the war drags on, and these recent controversies have not increased confidence among Ukrainians or Europeans that the U.S. remains a steadfast, reliable partner. That is dangerous for Ukraine.
Rep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Ill., emphasized, “We’ve had very strong bipartisan support for Ukraine and Ukraine fighting against Russia.” He thought McCarthy may have intended to say Congress should redouble efforts to ensure oversight and accountability over the aid to Ukraine, but he also rightly pointed out that such waffling will be used by Putin’s propagandists to Russia’s advantage: “You’re giving aid and comfort to the enemy, intentionally or unintentionally.”
Former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul supports diplomacy along with military pressure to bring the Russians to the table, but he told me earlier this year that Putin will never enter serious negotiations until there is a stalemate on the battlefield.
“Of course, we must try diplomacy. And try harder,” he tweeted last week. “We must increase communication with Putin and his inner circle.” He applauded recent outreach to Russian leaders by top U.S. civilian and military officials at the Pentagon but added, “We also must be realistic about what diplomacy can accomplish right now.”
Putin continues to double down on his relentless bombing of civilian targets even as Ukrainian forces increasingly recapture territory from a demoralized Russian army. Putin still dreams of rebuilding a Russian empire, and he falsely accused the West of inciting the conflict and playing “a dangerous, bloody and dirty” game that was fostering chaos.
That’s rich. Putin is the one who attacked first, on Feb. 24. Since then, millions of Ukrainians have been displaced from their homes, thousands of soldiers have died, on both sides, and more than $100 billion in military and economic aid to Ukraine has been committed by NATO and other nations, a large part of it from the U.S.
As Russian soldiers continued committing murder, torture and other war crimes, Putin unlawfully claimed parts of Ukraine are now Russian territory and forcibly transferred thousands of Ukrainian citizens to Russia. His missiles and bombs targeted Ukrainian civilians and their power grid to make them suffer this winter. Now, Putin is making ludicrous charges about Ukraine, a non-nuclear nation, potentially using a dirty bomb to spray radiation on its own lands — perhaps signaling a plan of his own to justify Russia retaliating, maybe with a tactical nuclear bomb.
This will not stand. The trans-Atlantic alliance remains unified. A recent survey by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs found solid bipartisan majorities of the American public still strongly support continuing humanitarian and security assistance to Ukraine.
Whatever the result of the midterms, America must stay the course, hold NATO steadfast, deliver more weapons to Ukraine and impose more sanctions on Russia. The strategy is working. Putin is increasingly isolated. His army is crumbling.
A brutal, bitter, perilous winter is coming, but Putin needs to know he cannot win.
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ABOUT THE WRITER
Storer H. Rowley, a former national editor and foreign correspondent for the Chicago Tribune, teaches journalism and communication at Northwestern University.
