Tsunami patrol has been on watch in Washington since last year. I served in the House during the last four midterm elections and experienced three massive waves that swept the president’s party out of power with an average loss of 45 seats. Many House Democrats at the start of last year privately admitted that they expected to lose the majority in the 2022 election and that they were just hoping to avoid being victims of a fourth tsunami in five cycles. Can Democrats escape an enormous wave in House elections? Can Republicans net that one seat they need for the Senate? These are the questions in the home stretch to Nov. 8.
Many prognosticators use generic ballot poll numbers to predict what the balance of power in the House will be after an election. In 2010, a nine-point GOP lead in the poll yielded a pickup of 63 seats. In 2018, a seven-point Democratic lead led to a 41-seat swing. According to RealClearPolitics, Republican’s four-point lead in the spring turned to a slight Democratic advantage by the third week of September. This led some to begin talking about what had seemed to be impossible, Democrats holding the very slim five-seat House majority.
In the past month, however, the polls have turned in the Republicans’ favor. Last week, shock waves went through Washington when a New York Times-Sienna College poll showed the party up 49-45. One poll should not have caused so much angst, but even more telling were the subsequent stories saying Democrats had peaked too soon and that finger-pointing has begun. This is the type of chatter that arose at similar points during past wave elections. Behind the scenes on both sides, there is a sense that a Republican wave could be building as concerns about inflation and the economy, as well as crime, are becoming the issues driving voters.
